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A Case For Nix
- Beef Supreme
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Re: A Case For Nix
Nix is my least favorite of the top-6 guys easy. He has no elite traits. He has the lowest ceiling. He screams journeyman starter/quality backup to me. He’ll have a nice career and probably a few good moments from time to time. But he’s not leading a franchise for a decade. I don’t see it.
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Re: A Case For Nix
Go look up Justin Herberts college completion rates.mlhouse wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:27 amNo you don't. Plus if you factor in the level of competition, it becomes even less so.Small Hands wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 8:03 amYou have a much larger sample size of pro style tape from Nix than you do JJ.minnemike wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 7:48 am It's the unknown with him since RPO is all we've seen. I trust KOC and company tested him well though. IF they wind up picking him its because he showed much much more than what he was asked to do in that offense. But you still cant simulate actual games in a NFL offense during that visit.
You could say the same thing with people who dont like JJ - there's an unknown factor since he was never asked to do as much as other QBs in the top tier.
AS I have said before, to me the two biggest things to think about Nix is the beginning of his career and the end of his career. I will even add the caveat that perhaps I am over emphasizing both. But, when Bo Nix started his career at Auburn in the SEC he wasn't a freaking 70% passer, he was a sub-60% passer with a yards/attempt less than 7.0 for his three year SEC tenure. He transfers to the PAC-12, and what you call "growth" I call playing a spread offense against lesser competition.
Then, to end his career he goes down to Mobile for the Senior Bowl and relative to the player you are talking up and again against higher level, select competition and NFL rules and playstyle, he stinks it up and was struggling to hit the broad side of a barn. Most report that he "improved" during the week but he started from rock bottom, Nix wasn't the best QB in the group (Spencer Rattler was the "MVP" of a 16-7 game), and didn't standout in a group of QBs that included mostly mid-level NFL draft prospects.
When you look at Oregon's offense, here is something that should give you pause. If you look at all of the Ducks' receiver rotation, the biggest one is 180 lbs. Their tight end is 230 lbs. And their mainstay RB is 190. THey are all good, fast, and quick. Troy Franklin (174) has a chance to be a first round pick. Tex Johnson (160) might even be a better receiver than Franklin. Bucky Irving (190) caught 56 passes out of the backfield. This is a speed offense designed to run these quick little receivers open in a wide field using lots of screens and other behind the LOS devices to force the defense to cover the entire vertical plane of the field.
You have to give Bo credit because he hit on almost 80% of his pass attempts (77.4%). But so did the backup QB Ty Thompson (77.4%) with almost the same aggregate statistics but obviously a smaller sample size (31 pass attempts, essentially one full game).
The Auburn Bo Nix was a guy who wasn't going to be drafted in the NFL and would be a long shot at best to make a NFL roster. The Senior Bowl Bo Nix is a guy who at best would be drafted in the same draft range as Michael Pratt. IN between he threw to a bunch of waterbugs on the field whom NCAA Pac-12 defenses could not cover. Throwing into gaping windows, of course Nix was a more confident thrower and he has adequate arm and mobility to be a solid college QB.
The Bo Nix comp I would use is Baker Mayfield. Similar builds. Similar college careers and stats. But that is an upside comp. Could Bo Nix reach that comp level? To me the answer comes from one factor. For the most part NIx's throwing mechanics are pretty sound. But too often, even without pressure, Nix bails on his drop with a backward hitch step. This mostly happens under pressure, but it also happens under light or no pressure from time to time. YOu can throw into Pac-12 windos with a back hitch, but not NFL. This has to be corrected, but it isn't a muscle memory mechanic, it is a reaction so it is harder to fix.
Oh.... and he played at Oregon.
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Re: A Case For Nix
He’s the most accurate QB in the draft and he’s mobile. Last time I checked, accuracy is important. I think his comp is Tua without the injury concerns, and he’s a righty. The arm strength and accuracy are similar.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 8:53 pm Nix is my least favorite of the top-6 guys easy. He has no elite traits. He has the lowest ceiling. He screams journeyman starter/quality backup to me. He’ll have a nice career and probably a few good moments from time to time. But he’s not leading a franchise for a decade. I don’t see it.
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Re: A Case For Nix
The Baker Comp is pretty laughable. Kiper says his comp is Drew Brees. I’m not sure about that, but the size is similar. Both very accurate passers. I think a safe comp is Tua with a Brees ceiling. Nix could be special, but he should at least be a competent QB in the league. Plug him in our offense and I think he could surprise our fan base. Kids a gamer and works his ass off.Mnwild1128 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 12:39 amGo look up Justin Herberts college completion rates.mlhouse wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:27 amNo you don't. Plus if you factor in the level of competition, it becomes even less so.Small Hands wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 8:03 am
You have a much larger sample size of pro style tape from Nix than you do JJ.
AS I have said before, to me the two biggest things to think about Nix is the beginning of his career and the end of his career. I will even add the caveat that perhaps I am over emphasizing both. But, when Bo Nix started his career at Auburn in the SEC he wasn't a freaking 70% passer, he was a sub-60% passer with a yards/attempt less than 7.0 for his three year SEC tenure. He transfers to the PAC-12, and what you call "growth" I call playing a spread offense against lesser competition.
Then, to end his career he goes down to Mobile for the Senior Bowl and relative to the player you are talking up and again against higher level, select competition and NFL rules and playstyle, he stinks it up and was struggling to hit the broad side of a barn. Most report that he "improved" during the week but he started from rock bottom, Nix wasn't the best QB in the group (Spencer Rattler was the "MVP" of a 16-7 game), and didn't standout in a group of QBs that included mostly mid-level NFL draft prospects.
When you look at Oregon's offense, here is something that should give you pause. If you look at all of the Ducks' receiver rotation, the biggest one is 180 lbs. Their tight end is 230 lbs. And their mainstay RB is 190. THey are all good, fast, and quick. Troy Franklin (174) has a chance to be a first round pick. Tex Johnson (160) might even be a better receiver than Franklin. Bucky Irving (190) caught 56 passes out of the backfield. This is a speed offense designed to run these quick little receivers open in a wide field using lots of screens and other behind the LOS devices to force the defense to cover the entire vertical plane of the field.
You have to give Bo credit because he hit on almost 80% of his pass attempts (77.4%). But so did the backup QB Ty Thompson (77.4%) with almost the same aggregate statistics but obviously a smaller sample size (31 pass attempts, essentially one full game).
The Auburn Bo Nix was a guy who wasn't going to be drafted in the NFL and would be a long shot at best to make a NFL roster. The Senior Bowl Bo Nix is a guy who at best would be drafted in the same draft range as Michael Pratt. IN between he threw to a bunch of waterbugs on the field whom NCAA Pac-12 defenses could not cover. Throwing into gaping windows, of course Nix was a more confident thrower and he has adequate arm and mobility to be a solid college QB.
The Bo Nix comp I would use is Baker Mayfield. Similar builds. Similar college careers and stats. But that is an upside comp. Could Bo Nix reach that comp level? To me the answer comes from one factor. For the most part NIx's throwing mechanics are pretty sound. But too often, even without pressure, Nix bails on his drop with a backward hitch step. This mostly happens under pressure, but it also happens under light or no pressure from time to time. YOu can throw into Pac-12 windos with a back hitch, but not NFL. This has to be corrected, but it isn't a muscle memory mechanic, it is a reaction so it is harder to fix.
Oh.... and he played at Oregon.
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Re: A Case For Nix
Bingpot!Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 8:53 pm Nix is my least favorite of the top-6 guys easy. He has no elite traits. He has the lowest ceiling. He screams journeyman starter/quality backup to me. He’ll have a nice career and probably a few good moments from time to time. But he’s not leading a franchise for a decade. I don’t see it.
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- Da Gas Man's Ghost
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Re: A Case For Nix
Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 9:13 amHe’s the most accurate QB in the draft and he’s mobile. Last time I checked, accuracy is important. I think his comp is Tua without the injury concerns, and he’s a righty. The arm strength and accuracy are similar.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 8:53 pm Nix is my least favorite of the top-6 guys easy. He has no elite traits. He has the lowest ceiling. He screams journeyman starter/quality backup to me. He’ll have a nice career and probably a few good moments from time to time. But he’s not leading a franchise for a decade. I don’t see it.
Check out the google doc. I'm not saying that you are wrong in your evaluation of Nix but take a look at the tab "passing depth and target". 27% of his throws are behind the LOS. The next closest is Caleb at low 20s and then you have ones that are only in the mid teens. And Box Nix is very accurate behind the LOS. But that means that his stats are very heavily inflated by a very large percentage of short screens. Even the 0-9 yards passes could be 1 yard pass.
Other tabs have some nice data for Nix that show nice traits but his accuracy and percentage are heavily weighted by more than 1/4 of his passes being behind the LOS.
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- Beef Supreme
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Re: A Case For Nix
Nix has a high completion percentage. That’s not the same thing as accuracy.
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Re: A Case For Nix
His 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 9:56 am Nix has a high completion percentage. That’s not the same thing as accuracy.
- Beef Supreme
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Re: A Case For Nix
Yes. He completes a lot of passes.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:04 amHis 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 9:56 am Nix has a high completion percentage. That’s not the same thing as accuracy.
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
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Re: A Case For Nix
30% of his passes are thrown behind the LOS.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:45 amYes. He completes a lot of passes.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:04 amHis 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 9:56 am Nix has a high completion percentage. That’s not the same thing as accuracy.
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
The Oregon offense is well designed for college football and utilizes little receivers like Troy Franklin and Dez Johnson who better than Franklin but much smaller at 160 lbs. How many games does a 160 lbs receiver last in teh Big Ten if he is a featured target in a high volume passing offense?
It just isn't the same. If you realistically adjusted for competition and play, Nix's stats probably converge back to the statistical seasons he had at Auburn.
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Re: A Case For Nix
Dude, you compared JJ McCarthy skill set to Josh Allen no one cares about your opinion - as a matter of fact they’re laughing at youmlhouse wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:59 am30% of his passes are thrown behind the LOS.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:45 amYes. He completes a lot of passes.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:04 am
His 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
The Oregon offense is well designed for college football and utilizes little receivers like Troy Franklin and Dez Johnson who better than Franklin but much smaller at 160 lbs. How many games does a 160 lbs receiver last in teh Big Ten if he is a featured target in a high volume passing offense?
It just isn't the same. If you realistically adjusted for competition and play, Nix's stats probably converge back to the statistical seasons he had at Auburn.
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Re: A Case For Nix
I might need to have my eyes checked. Bo Nix looks like one of the most accurate QB's in the draft.
I was hoping the guy that did the all 2023 throws for other QB's would do Bo's. Maybe that's where I'm missing it is in ALL his throws but 77%... That's nuts.
Bo is a very good screen passer because ball placement is superior. As Chris Simms noted in their interview that is an art. Watching Bo's accuracy I felt very good about his ball placement and how he maximizes his targets for gains with exceptional ball placement keeping thing fluid and in rythm.
I think Bo is getting slept on but like any QB he needs a good situation. If he goes somewhere trash for 4 years it's gonna be tough. Same goes for many of these kids.
With all his experience he's a good fit in Denver because they need a QB right away. I'm not a Sean Peyton fan but he had a good relationship with Brees for along time.
I was hoping the guy that did the all 2023 throws for other QB's would do Bo's. Maybe that's where I'm missing it is in ALL his throws but 77%... That's nuts.
Bo is a very good screen passer because ball placement is superior. As Chris Simms noted in their interview that is an art. Watching Bo's accuracy I felt very good about his ball placement and how he maximizes his targets for gains with exceptional ball placement keeping thing fluid and in rythm.
I think Bo is getting slept on but like any QB he needs a good situation. If he goes somewhere trash for 4 years it's gonna be tough. Same goes for many of these kids.
With all his experience he's a good fit in Denver because they need a QB right away. I'm not a Sean Peyton fan but he had a good relationship with Brees for along time.
Last edited by -VikingsTw- on Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A Case For Nix
You need a timeout bro? Your like a bot responder man. We've heard this take from you like ten times. We know how you feel about it.
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Re: A Case For Nix
You have to admit it’s pretty ridiculous. I was laughing so hard I started crying.-VikingsTw- wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:11 amYou need a timeout bro? Your like a bot responder man. We've heard this take from you like ten times. We know how you feel about it.
Btw it should read you’re as in you are
Last edited by D_H on Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A Case For Nix
-VikingsTw- wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:08 am I might need to have my eyes checked. Bo Nix looks like one of the most accurate QB's in the draft.
I was hoping the guy that did the all 2023 throws for other QB's would do Bo's. Maybe that's where I'm missing it is in ALL his throws but 77%... That's nuts.
Bo is a very good screen passer because ball placement is superior. As Phil Simms noted in their interview that is an art. Watching Bo's accuracy I felt very good about his ball placement and how he maximizes his targets for gains with exceptional ball placement keeping thing fluid and in rythm.
I think Bo is getting slept on but like any QB he needs a good situation. If he goes somewhere trash for 4 years it's gonna be tough. Same goes for many of these kids.
With all his experience he's a good fit in Denver because they need a QB right away. I'm not a Sean Peyton fan but he had a good relationship with Brees for along time.
Fran Tarkenton loves Nix
- Beetlejuice
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Re: A Case For Nix
Ignore him, uce. He’s not interested in a civil conversation.-VikingsTw- wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:11 amYou need a timeout bro? Your like a bot responder man. We've heard this take from you like ten times. We know how you feel about it.
Thank you… fuck you… bye!
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Re: A Case For Nix
Definitely agree but the strange thing is, his take is actually fine.Beetlejuice wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:40 amIgnore him, uce. He’s not interested in a civil conversation.-VikingsTw- wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:11 amYou need a timeout bro? Your like a bot responder man. We've heard this take from you like ten times. We know how you feel about it.
Believe in the upside of Maye and trade up for him, or sit back and take Penix at 11.
That's a completely reasonable take.
I'm not saying it's right or wrong, we'd have to wait and see in a few years, but it is completely reasonable.
The execution of it now though has just become a caricature.
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A Iverson, K Irving
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- Beef Supreme
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Re: A Case For Nix
Agreed. I think it’s reasonable to assume he’s grown and improved since Auburn. But to what degree? I doubt it’s enough to overcome his lesser physical skills relative to the rest of the top guys.mlhouse wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:59 am30% of his passes are thrown behind the LOS.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:45 amYes. He completes a lot of passes.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:04 am
His 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
The Oregon offense is well designed for college football and utilizes little receivers like Troy Franklin and Dez Johnson who better than Franklin but much smaller at 160 lbs. How many games does a 160 lbs receiver last in teh Big Ten if he is a featured target in a high volume passing offense?
It just isn't the same. If you realistically adjusted for competition and play, Nix's stats probably converge back to the statistical seasons he had at Auburn.
Add to that the gimmicky “check with the sideline” offense stuff at Oregon that took a lot of the mental aspect of the game away from the quarterback, and there’s a lot to be concerned with about Nix. There is some upside with him and he doesn’t suck balls or anything, but I have a hard time imagining him leading a team for a decade in the NFL. I can see all the other top guys doing it. They all won’t, I’m sure, but it’s easy to imagine.
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Re: A Case For Nix
His take is fine. He just repeats it too much and sometimes in places it doesn’t really belong. It’s shoehorned in to other discussions sometimes.Oriole81 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:47 amDefinitely agree but the strange thing is, his take is actually fine.Beetlejuice wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:40 amIgnore him, uce. He’s not interested in a civil conversation.-VikingsTw- wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:11 am
You need a timeout bro? Your like a bot responder man. We've heard this take from you like ten times. We know how you feel about it.
Believe in the upside of Maye and trade up for him, or sit back and take Penix at 11.
That's a completely reasonable take.
I'm not saying it's right or wrong, we'd have to wait and see in a few years, but it is completely reasonable.
The execution of it now though has just become a caricature.
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Re: A Case For Nix
He had 27 TDs and only 2 INTs when his ADOT was over 10 yards. 0 INTs inside the opponents red zone. 13 TDs on passes when ADOT is more than 20 yards. He is highly effective on passes downfield. He just wasn’t asked to do it as often, because Oregon’s offense doesn’t ask for it as much. He’s incredibly efficient and had more snaps than any QB in college history. IDK… I think the hate is too strong with this kid. I see a gamer that will thrive in the NFL. If you want to give JJ McCarthy the benefit of the doubt of not being asked as much, you 100% need to do the same for Nix.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:45 amYes. He completes a lot of passes.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:04 amHis 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 9:56 am Nix has a high completion percentage. That’s not the same thing as accuracy.
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
When I make a case for him, it doesn’t mean I’d rather take him over one of the top 3. I just think I’d rather take a gamble on him than the dust bone Penix or the guy who hasn’t hardly passed the ball.
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Re: A Case For Nix
I am not a fierce JJ McCarthy defender or advocate.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 1:57 pmHe had 27 TDs and only 2 INTs when his ADOT was over 10 yards. 0 INTs inside the opponents red zone. 13 TDs on passes when ADOT is more than 20 yards. He is highly effective on passes downfield. He just wasn’t asked to do it as often, because Oregon’s offense doesn’t ask for it as much. He’s incredibly efficient and had more snaps than any QB in college history. IDK… I think the hate is too strong with this kid. I see a gamer that will thrive in the NFL. If you want to give JJ McCarthy the benefit of the doubt of not being asked as much, you 100% need to do the same for Nix.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:45 amYes. He completes a lot of passes.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:04 am
His 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
When I make a case for him, it doesn’t mean I’d rather take him over one of the top 3. I just think I’d rather take a gamble on him than the dust bone Penix or the guy who hasn’t hardly passed the ball.
Nix did a lot great in college. A lot. His stats reflect that.
But a lot of what he did in college is not what NFL quarterbacks are asked to do.
I don’t hate Nix. But I think his ceiling is a guy like Jeff Garcia. And Garcia was pretty good for a while. He was very successful early in his NFL career in a perfect system, but didn’t stick around anywhere for more than 4 years and was a journeyman by the end of his career. I could see that for Nix. That’s not a bad career.
Garcia did make the pro-bowl 4 times (three times as a reserve and once as an alternate after an injured Brett Favre bowed out after the 2007 season). I doubt Nix would make 4 pro-bowls with all the elite QBs in the league right now, but maybe.
But that’s his ceiling and as good as Garcia was, he had limitations. He had a 2-4 playoff record and a career 73.8 passer in the post-season. When defenses got better, he couldn’t raise his game to match.
I’m hoping we aim higher on the 25th.
Mom not sure what “dust bone Penix” means, but it sounds like it’s supposed to be some scary warning about his injury history.
But just a few months ago, “Dust Bone” beat Nix in the final Pac10 Championship game ever. So maybe you’re being too dismissive of Mr. Bone. Or “Dusty.” Or whatever else you want to call him to make it sound scary to draft him.
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Re: A Case For Nix
Yes… dust bone was referring to his injury concernsBeef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 2:40 pmI am not a fierce JJ McCarthy defender or advocate.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 1:57 pmHe had 27 TDs and only 2 INTs when his ADOT was over 10 yards. 0 INTs inside the opponents red zone. 13 TDs on passes when ADOT is more than 20 yards. He is highly effective on passes downfield. He just wasn’t asked to do it as often, because Oregon’s offense doesn’t ask for it as much. He’s incredibly efficient and had more snaps than any QB in college history. IDK… I think the hate is too strong with this kid. I see a gamer that will thrive in the NFL. If you want to give JJ McCarthy the benefit of the doubt of not being asked as much, you 100% need to do the same for Nix.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:45 am
Yes. He completes a lot of passes.
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
When I make a case for him, it doesn’t mean I’d rather take him over one of the top 3. I just think I’d rather take a gamble on him than the dust bone Penix or the guy who hasn’t hardly passed the ball.
Nix did a lot great in college. A lot. His stats reflect that.
But a lot of what he did in college is not what NFL quarterbacks are asked to do.
I don’t hate Nix. But I think his ceiling is a guy like Jeff Garcia. And Garcia was pretty good for a while. He was very successful early in his NFL career in a perfect system, but didn’t stick around anywhere for more than 4 years and was a journeyman by the end of his career. I could see that for Nix. That’s not a bad career.
Garcia did make the pro-bowl 4 times (three times as a reserve and once as an alternate after an injured Brett Favre bowed out after the 2007 season). I doubt Nix would make 4 pro-bowls with all the elite QBs in the league right now, but maybe.
But that’s his ceiling and as good as Garcia was, he had limitations. He had a 2-4 playoff record and a career 73.8 passer in the post-season. When defenses got better, he couldn’t raise his game to match.
I’m hoping we aim higher on the 25th.
Mom not sure what “dust bone Penix” means, but it sounds like it’s supposed to be some scary warning about his injury history.
But just a few months ago, “Dust Bone” beat Nix in the final Pac10 Championship game ever. So maybe you’re being too dismissive of Mr. Bone. Or “Dusty.” Or whatever else you want to call him to make it sound scary to draft him.
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Re: A Case For Nix
"Nix might have good stats, but the context of them isn’t. The Ducks run a Mickey Mouse offense that is designed to mask the deficiencies of the quarterback. His aDOT is a party 6.9 yards with five games under seven yards and two of them at 4.5 and 4.3. He throws a lot of screens and shallow routes in an offense designed for him not to have to go through progressions.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 1:57 pmHe had 27 TDs and only 2 INTs when his ADOT was over 10 yards. 0 INTs inside the opponents red zone. 13 TDs on passes when ADOT is more than 20 yards. He is highly effective on passes downfield. He just wasn’t asked to do it as often, because Oregon’s offense doesn’t ask for it as much. He’s incredibly efficient and had more snaps than any QB in college history. IDK… I think the hate is too strong with this kid. I see a gamer that will thrive in the NFL. If you want to give JJ McCarthy the benefit of the doubt of not being asked as much, you 100% need to do the same for Nix.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:45 amYes. He completes a lot of passes.Small Hands wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 10:04 am
His 85.5% adjusted completion percentage in 2023 led the nation, and when removing screens, he still had the highest adjusted completion percentage in college football (79.1%
His ball placement is not elite. He does not fire passes into tight windows. He does not have NFL accuracy traits.
His timing is pretty good. I will grant him that.
When I make a case for him, it doesn’t mean I’d rather take him over one of the top 3. I just think I’d rather take a gamble on him than the dust bone Penix or the guy who hasn’t hardly passed the ball.
In fact, their YAC numbers are insanely high. Of the 4,455 receiving yards this season, the Ducks have 2,886 yards after the catch, the most in the nation. That number is 482 yards ahead of second-place UAB."
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Re: A Case For Nix
That’s more of a worst case scenario.
He will fall somewhere on the spectrum between Ponder and Jeff Garcia.
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Re: A Case For Nix
I agree he can hit the wr while they are running full speed. They don't even slow down for the ball. He has so many TD that are perfect passes. That is what stood out to me.-VikingsTw- wrote: ↑Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:08 am I might need to have my eyes checked. Bo Nix looks like one of the most accurate QB's in the draft.
I was hoping the guy that did the all 2023 throws for other QB's would do Bo's. Maybe that's where I'm missing it is in ALL his throws but 77%... That's nuts.
Bo is a very good screen passer because ball placement is superior. As Chris Simms noted in their interview that is an art. Watching Bo's accuracy I felt very good about his ball placement and how he maximizes his targets for gains with exceptional ball placement keeping thing fluid and in rythm.
I think Bo is getting slept on but like any QB he needs a good situation. If he goes somewhere trash for 4 years it's gonna be tough. Same goes for many of these kids.
With all his experience he's a good fit in Denver because they need a QB right away. I'm not a Sean Peyton fan but he had a good relationship with Brees for along time.
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Re: A Case For Nix
They must be idiots! He should be a 4th round pick! He’s Christian Ponder 2.0. At best Jeff Garcia.Tuck ya in wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:41 am Betting odds favor Nix going to the Broncos.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... aft-bo-nix
I’d bet money Nix is drafted ahead of Penix and I won’t be surprised one bit if he goes ahead of McCarthy.
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Re: A Case For Nix
I always take Vegas more seriously than any of the sports "Journalists", Writers, & Radio/TV host in regards to well....anything and everything.Small Hands wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:50 amThey must be idiots! He should be a 4th round pick! He’s Christian Ponder 2.0. At best Jeff Garcia.Tuck ya in wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:41 am Betting odds favor Nix going to the Broncos.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... aft-bo-nix
I’d bet money Nix is drafted ahead of Penix and I won’t be surprised one bit if he goes ahead of McCarthy.
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Re: A Case For Nix
They typically know what they are doing. It’s not a sure thing, but they are right more than the so called experts.Tuck ya in wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:04 amI always take Vegas more seriously than any of the sports "Journalists", Writers, & Radio/TV host in regards to well....anything and everything.Small Hands wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:50 amThey must be idiots! He should be a 4th round pick! He’s Christian Ponder 2.0. At best Jeff Garcia.Tuck ya in wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 8:41 am Betting odds favor Nix going to the Broncos.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... aft-bo-nix
I’d bet money Nix is drafted ahead of Penix and I won’t be surprised one bit if he goes ahead of McCarthy.