Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy?

[witljon]

some people might lose their proverbial shit on draft night.

I’m not sold on JJ McCarthy, but will go into wait-and-see mode if he’s our pick. I will be disappointed if we trade up for him, but will hope like hell that I’m wrong about him. This strategy did not work when we picked Christian Ponder.

We didn't trade up for Ponder.

We picked him at 12 overall.

I know

[BigInflateable]

I’m not sold on JJ McCarthy, but will go into wait-and-see mode if he’s our pick. I will be disappointed if we trade up for him, but will hope like hell that I’m wrong about him. This strategy did not work when we picked Christian Ponder.

We didn't trade up for Ponder.

We picked him at 12 overall.

I know

He would have been a reasonable pick in the 3rd/4th round as a flyer. Then again, he was supposed to learn behind "Worm burner" McNabb, who completely mailed it in after joining the Vikes. What. A. Fucking. Bum.

[BigInflateable]

"There were a lot of mistakes that should be easily correctable"
#7,# Seminoles for life!!!

[Sportsrgreat]

No, he should not have been picked at all! Then coddled for multiple seasons with no competition brought in…

[Small Hands]

some people might lose their proverbial shit on draft night.

I’m not sold on JJ McCarthy, but will go into wait-and-see mode if he’s our pick. I will be disappointed if we trade up for him, but will hope like hell that I’m wrong about him. This strategy did not work when we picked Christian Ponder.

We didn't trade up for Ponder.

We picked him at 12 overall.

I don’t think he was saying they did. I think he was saying that if the Vikings pick him, he’s going to hope his suspicions are wrong.

[cunningham]

I found an interesting article evaluating Maye and McCarthy.

Vikings Don’t Need to Trade Up for a QB
Lots of talent likely to be available for the Vikings at #11 - and maybe even #23

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2024/3/21 ... p-for-a-qb

Since the Minnesota Vikings traded for a second first-round pick in a deal Albert Breer reported was initiated by the Houston Texans, there has been widespread speculation that the Vikings will use that additional first-round draft pick to move up in the draft, perhaps as far as the #3 overall pick. While not universal, most are speculating that the Vikings intend to draft Drake Maye in that scenario. The consensus view is that Caleb Williams will be drafted first by the Bears, and Jayden Daniels will be drafted second by the Commanders. That’s also supported by the odds each quarterback will be taken at those spots, by those teams, at -3500 and -170 respectively. Given that, and barring RGIII PTSD affecting the Commanders choice of Daniels, there is no reason to believe either Williams or Daniels will be available to the Vikings in a potential trade-up scenario.

Why Trading Up for a QB Would Be a Bad Deal for the Vikings
So, with Williams and Daniels off the board, that leaves the next two quarterbacks on the consensus board - Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy- as potential targets for the Vikings. But neither Maye or McCarthy are top ten worthy picks. Here’s why.

First, any player picked in the first round, and especially in the top half of the first round, and even more so in the top 5-10 picks, is expected to become an immediate impact starter for the team that drafts him. These represent the very best, highest ceiling, highest floor prospects that have consistently demonstrated All-Pro potential in their extensive college tape, which has been confirmed in the pre-draft process. This isn’t where teams draft players that may be a project for a year or two, or boom or bust prospects, or those with significant injury/durability concerns, or those that haven’t consistently demonstrated All-Pro potential in their college tape. This is where teams draft immediate “plug-and-play” starters who justify perennial Pro-Bowl expectations.

Which brings us back to Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy.
These are both 21-year-old prospects with two years of starting experience. And while both of them have flashed some high-ceiling plays, there are a lot of weaknesses and/or unproven aspects to their game that show up a lot more often. In both cases, scouts have said they need a year after being drafted to develop. I’ll get into the specifics further down in the film studies, but if neither Maye or McCarthy are ready to start this season, they shouldn’t be drafted early in the first round. In both cases that would be a big reach for the Vikings, should they trade up, and still a significant reach even if they picked either at #11. Yes, I get that quarterback is the most important position in professional sports, and if a guy might be elite down the road maybe you take a chance if you have strong conviction in the player. But this approach is why the success rate on quarterbacks drafted in the first round is closer to the average for second round picks than first round picks. They get over drafted repeatedly based on teams or coaches overestimating their ability to make them into elite players, despite some red flags or weaknesses that may be difficult to correct or improve. Using a first-round pick on such a player is over drafting. Trading up and spending two or three first round picks to draft more of a long-shot player is a gamble that can haunt a team for many years.

A Note on QB Circumstances
It’s important to know the team circumstances for each quarterback when comparing them. For example, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy were in opposite circumstances at North Carolina and Michigan respectively. Maye played on a bad team in 2023 that required him to do just about everything for them offensively. McCarthy, by contrast, played on a very good team at Michigan that didn’t ask him to do much as Michigan was a heavy run-first offense. Caleb Williams didn’t have a great team around him, especially defensively at USC, while Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix had good teams around them, but different schemes that led to notable differences in some stats. Jayden Daniels had a great offense at LSU with two first-round wide receivers and a good offensive line, but not a good defense.

It’s also important consider experience. Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr. have five years (or six in the case of Penix) of college experience, while Maye, McCarthy, and Williams have two years and change. You’d expect the more experienced quarterbacks to be more developed, and they are, but that also leads to questions on what upside they have left to develop as they enter the league.

Lastly, for more comprehensive stats and comments from scouts and other evaluators on the top quarterback prospects, check out my summary here.

With that, let’s look at Drake Maye in more detail.

A Closer Look at Drake Maye
Even more flattering film reviews and profiles of Drake Maye indicate that he’s still raw, needs to work on fundamentals like footwork to improve accuracy- which was not good last season- and become more consistent across the board. There is also improvement needed in decision-making and processing/progression ability. There have been some scouting comments that North Carolina didn’t spend much time on drilling fundamentals with Maye, and that shows up on the field with footwork and pocket issues. Overall, that’s a lot to develop over a summer in a short number of team activities. That’s also not a quarterback that’s ready to start in September for the Vikings. That’s a quarterback that needs a year to sit and develop.

From a traditional draft board ranking perspective, that translates into a Day Two pick if he has high upside. But the reality is that Maye is a project that may or may not pan out in the NFL. Yes, he has shown flashes, but then again so did every first-round quarterback from the 2021 draft now playing for another team, and pretty much every quarterback drafted in the first round who didn’t make it.

Less flattering film reviews and profiles of Maye suggest an overrated prospect who didn’t elevate his team, has a lot of issues, may have an exaggerated upside, and has a low floor as a prospect that needs substantial development to make it in the NFL.

But let’s look at the tape. The film breakdowns I’ve chosen are all featuring a guy that’s either played quarterback or coached them in the NFL, not just some random fanalyst guy. I’ve also tried to avoid as much as possible some of the breakdowns that cherry-pick plays in a game that don’t present a complete picture of that particular game.

This first breakdown is of the North Carolina State game, the last of Maye’s college career, by Kurt Benkert, who played quarterback at East Carolina and Virginia in college, then bounced around a few NFL practice squads between 2018-2022.


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These next two breakdowns are from Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner and are breakdowns of the Duke and Virginia games in the 2023 season.


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Additionally, there are some game breakdowns by former NFL quarterback JT O’Sullivan, who breaks down Maye’s Clemson game, Duke game, and the NC State game. These are behind a pay wall, but you can check them out if you’re interested. Very similar commentary as the others above. O’Sullivan also breaks down the Miami game and 2022 Notre Dame game, shown below and free to watch here.


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Bottom line with these film evaluations and tying them back to the critical factors of being an elite quarterback in the NFL- accuracy, decision-making, pocket awareness, and clutch performance- Maye has issues with all four to one degree or another.

Accuracy suffers due to inconsistent/poor footwork, but also just random misses on routine throws. Go route accuracy is very good, but Maye also has some issue with ball placement too that aren’t footwork issues.

Decision making issues largely come from slower processing speed which can cause him to miss reads or not make progressions, and not throw with anticipation or proper timing. He doesn’t appear decisive on many occasions as well, meaning making a quick decision and getting the ball out quickly. That may be due to some uncertainty regarding coverages or choice routes, not having a lot of trust in his receivers, but whatever the reason that doesn’t help when pass protection is less than ideal as well.

Pocket awareness issues include drifting in the pocket (which can also telegraph throws) and sometimes creating his own pressure that way, and sometimes also bailing when he could have stepped up in the pocket and made the throw.

In terms of clutch performance, Maye has some big time throws and has delivered in some higher leverage situations- and done so often times without a lot of help from the team around him. But the poor finish to the 2023 season and inability to raise his team’s performance overall against ACC competition casts some doubt about his clutch ability at the next level, despite his prototypical physical traits.

I’ve seen comparisons for Maye from Justin Herbert at the higher end, to Will Levis and Daniel Jones from former NFL QB coach Marc Trestman. One troubling aspect of Trestman’s evaluation of Maye, which was done between the 2022 and 2023 seasons, was all the ‘room for growth areas’ that Trestman mentioned in May of 2023 are the same issues evaluators are pointing out now. In other words, Maye did not improve on these issues in the 2023 season. That’s concerning.

Bottom Line on Drake Maye
While Maye probably didn’t get the best coaching at North Carolina, it’s surprising that a prospect that’s been in the top 3 pick conversation for over a year has a number of problems with more fundamental issues that are independent of the team around him. But it’s true the team around him was not that good, and they struggled even against mediocre ACC competition.

But sometimes less than ideal coaching and situation can present an opportunity for growth and improvement if those two factors change. It’s been said in the past that some teams or scouts are reluctant to draft some Alabama prospects, given they’ve had the best coaching and team situation over the years and so there isn’t as much upside for coaches to develop. With Maye, there could potentially be more untapped potential with better coaching and a better team around him. But with that comes a jump in complexity and competition, as Maye transitions to the NFL. Catching up on fundamentals while also ramping up offensive and defensive complexity and level of competition can be a lot for a young quarterback to undertake, and as has been abundantly clear throughout league history, is something few young quarterbacks are able to do successfully.

That’s not to say Maye won’t be an elite quarterback in the NFL. Nobody has been able to predict which quarterback prospects will flourish in the league and which will not with any significant degree of accuracy. And if the Vikings decide to draft Maye, their QB coach Josh McCown has the advantage of having coached Maye in high school and so may know him better and understand how best to coach him and bring out the best in him. But at this point McCown, who played 18 seasons in the league as a journeyman backup quarterback, doesn’t have much of a track record in developing young quarterbacks.

In any case, drafting Maye in the top five picks, as some are speculating the Vikings will do, does not represent a good value for the Vikings if Maye needs to sit for a year or more and develop. Spending two first round picks or more to do so makes the value proposition even worse.

Lastly, the rumor is that the Patriots at #3 don’t like Maye that much and prefer Daniels. So what will the Patriots do if Daniels is already taken when they’re on the clock? They could easily take a top wide receiver if they don’t like Maye and the Vikings balked or low-balled them on any trade offer.

Every year a quarterback thought to go early in the first round ends up dropping for one reason or another. Aaron Rodgers was neck-and-neck with Alex Smith for going #1 overall, but Rodgers ended up dropping all the way to #24. Last year Will Levis was expected to go as high as #4 but slid all the way to the second round.

A Closer Look at J.J. McCarthy
The cliff notes scouting report on McCarthy is that he’s been good at what he was asked to do at Michigan for the most part but wasn’t asked to do much as a passer and he doesn’t have elite physical traits. He does seem to have the intangible ‘it’ factor which draws a lot of attention. But I’ve yet to see any major draft board with McCarthy ranked any higher than the low 20s overall. The expectation now is that McCarthy will be drafted higher than that based on his intangibles, but just how high remains a question mark.

The major criticism of McCarthy is not that he can’t do this or that as a passer, it’s just that he hasn’t done it much apart from the easier throws in the catalog, and he’s never really had a game where he needed to carry the team as a passer or had a lot of drop-back volume. He also had a very good- national champion- team around him last season with a heavy run-first offense that gave him frequently advantageous game situations all season.

Having said that, there is a difference between Maye and McCarthy when it comes to fundamentals that are independent of team situation that is fairly evident. McCarthy was more accurate at all levels except 30+ yard throws than Maye last season and seems more decisive. Below, Benkert breaks down McCarthy’s game against Alabama last season.


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Overall, Benkert’s main criticism was that McCarthy simply needs more passing volume to perfect some timing/touch issues that led to some inaccuracies and some bad decisions from just not having enough passing reps against a variety of coverages, etc. It’s not a big concern, but it will simply take McCarthy more time and reps to develop that polish as a passer.

The highest volume pass attempt game for McCarthy last season came against Purdue in a blowout win for Michigan. He had 37 pass attempts. No commentary here, but simply watching every pass attempt here shows where McCarthy is as a passer with a more normal amount of passing attempts in a game against an inferior Purdue defense.


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Overall, it was a decent game by McCarthy, but nevertheless more inaccuracies and not ideal ball placement than you’d like to see.

Another McCarthy game worth watching to get a good overview of his game, good and bad, was the Fiesta Bowl against TCU at the end of the 2022 season. A rare game where Michigan was playing from behind nearly the whole game and Michigan had to lean on McCarthy and the passing game more.


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McCarthy had some mistakes, but also plenty of flashes of playmaking ability and the ‘it’ factor even though Michigan lost this game.

Bottom Line on J.J. McCarthy
Fundamentally, J.J. McCarthy appears more pro-ready than Drake Maye even though he doesn’t have the passing volume. Ideally, he would have another college season’s worth of passing volume under his belt, but not having that means he likely needs to sit and develop more as a passer. There are a lot of NFL throws that McCarthy didn’t attempt much at Michigan, and he simply needs more reps with the full spectrum of throws he needs to make in the NFL.

The other thing about McCarthy is while he has adequate arm talent, can make all the throws, and has good athleticism, how he holds up when asked to throw forty times per game and carry a team is a question mark. Most likely he’ll need time to ramp up to that workload. What his ceiling is as a passer remains a question mark as well. He definitely exudes a lot of playmaking ability, but ultimately he’ll need to develop more physically and mentally against NFL competition to be a frequent clutch performer at the next level.

All that translates to a late first round grade given his intangibles, but also need for development, although I wouldn’t be surprised if more NFL team evaluators see a clearer, more certain path for McCarthy to being a quality NFL starter than with Drake Maye. And for that reason they may be willing to reach a bit for him in the draft.

But for the Patriots to take him at #3 would be a big reach, and although the rumor is they like McCarthy more than Maye, they don’t want to take him at #3. Ideally, the Patriots may prefer to trade down the with Vikings if they want Maye, and Daniels isn’t available at #3, and draft McCarthy at #11. But it’s unclear at this point whether Daniels will be available or who the Vikings would trade up for. But if teams stay true to their draft boards, I doubt McCarthy will go in the top ten picks.

There has been talk that the Giants might take McCarthy at #6, or even Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers at #5, but both of these seem doubtful. The Giants’ GM Joe Schoen just gave Daniel Jones a $160 million extension 13 months ago. For him to turn around and draft McCarthy next month would be a clown car move. Additionally, Brian Daboll may be more interested in getting Jones a top-tier wideout that will be available to them at #6 rather than starting over at quarterback. Daboll knows the difference adding a top wideout made in Josh Allen’s career- which got off to a rocky start before the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Jim Harbaugh lobbied for McCarthy with the Chargers ownership and management, but I doubt they’d go for it with Justin Herbert recently extended. They could be a trade down partner, however, given their needs. Ultimately, it wouldn’t be surprising if McCarthy was available to the Vikings at #11 as there are no teams desperate for a quarterback between picks #3 and #11. A team like the Broncos (who don’t have a second-round pick) or the Raiders could make a move up, but the Vikings are in position to outbid them if they felt the need.

What are the odds?

Spoiler:

From an oddsmaker’s view, the Vikings are most likely to trade up to #4-5 and draft J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings have the shortest odds to draft McCarthy at -130 (56.5% implied probability), and he’s also most likely to be drafted at one of those two draft spots, although the implied probability is only about 25% for each spot.

Perhaps the biggest danger of McCarthy not falling to #11 is if a team like the Broncos or Raiders traded up with Chicago, who could also potentially refuse a better offer from the Vikings to deny them their quarterback of choice. That could potentially deny the Bears their preferred choice, however as the Jets have some similar needs at #10 and could take their guy.

Bottom line, the Vikings will have some good choices at #11 if they decide not to trade up. Those will likely include both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., but also perhaps J.J. McCarthy and potentially even Drake Maye if the Patriots choose a wide receiver rather than a quarterback at #3.

Stay tuned.

Thanks for taking the time to post that! Great stuff in there and makes you wonder what will happen.

I’ve heard the rumors reported here, but this evaluation makes me less interested in Maye and more in McCarthy. What is hype right now and what will happen?

Trading up with the two first rounders for McCarthy isn’t that bad because we still get our first round pick next year. Spending the extra 1st rounder for Maye feels like a lot. We’ve got a lot of failed quarterbacks now on our coaching staff, hopefully they evaluate this one correctly.

I think they really want Maye. I don’t think the Pats are sold on Maye. They want Daniels and are waiting to see what Washington does.

Also, this quarterback class probably has one guy at the top and one guy way lower who will find success. I’m not totally sold that this class is that special. Last year seemed better, but we picked too late.

My feeling is that the Vikings see Maye as their Brock Purdy. The guy they were gonna sign as an UDFA until SF stole him. McCarthy and Daniels don’t fit O’Connell’s style.

[Hornets]

WOW! Great info here, maybe RC's best post of the year?! With a lousy Sunday coming up I'm gonna settle into my barcalounger and watch all the video and summary's!

In my mind the Vikes absolutely have to draft a QB in round 1 and whoever it is I'd like them to start the season on the bench and soak it all in....2025 is the season we really need to look at.

[Beef Supreme]

This video clearly shows JJ’s strengths and weaknesses on deep passes.

Need something fired into a tight window over the middle? Check.

Need him to get outside the pocket with his eyes downfield when coverage breaks down? Check.

Need him to drop a rainbow into a bucket and let his receiver run under it? Most definitely not check.

[mlhouse]

This video clearly shows JJ’s strengths and weaknesses on deep passes.

Need something fired into a tight window over the middle? Check.

Need him to get outside the pocket with his eyes downfield when coverage breaks down? Check.

Need him to drop a rainbow into a bucket and let his receiver run under it? Most definitely not check.

While I have shown some of the issues with JJ McCarthy, I still am not certain on the "definitely not check" issue. Here is why. Just like some people (falsely) lower their grade on McCarthy because "he is just a game manager of a machine", he simply was not asked to make those throws very often, if at all. (Not really proud of the sentence construction, but read it like it was spoken).

If you JImH at Michigan you don't need to heave it up like the Washington Huskies. You are going to move the ball methodically. How many vertical routes that require the rainbow are there in a game?

Remember, the entire college game is different. There are issues with all of these players because of this. What you really need to evaluate is which players can make the throws and if they have technique issues, which ones can be corrected. Slight footwork issues are easily corrected and McCarthy has those. Getting loft on your vertical throws is something that relatively easily be developed if the guy has the arm. Gaining touch is something that can be developed with experience.

That is the difference, in my opinion at least, between JJ McCarthy/Drake Maye vs. Michael Penix. Penix's technique issue is his arm angle and that is a lot more ingrained muscle memory than slight adjustments to the footwork.

Another note on Penix in this Maye/McCarthy thread. During the draft process there are a lot of rumors flying around, most of them utterly false and utterly ridiculous, especially in this internet era were there are 25,000 mock draft experts posting. But sometimes you start hearing whispers, indirect but dark, and the whispered, indirect rumors usually have a lot more veracity than the ones shouted out online. And the one dark whisper I am hearing by reading between lines is that the NFL teams evaluation on Penix's medical is not good.

[weimy froob]

This video clearly shows JJ’s strengths and weaknesses on deep passes.

Need something fired into a tight window over the middle? Check.

Need him to get outside the pocket with his eyes downfield when coverage breaks down? Check.

Need him to drop a rainbow into a bucket and let his receiver run under it? Most definitely not check.

While I have shown some of the issues with JJ McCarthy, I still am not certain on the "definitely not check" issue. Here is why. Just like some people (falsely) lower their grade on McCarthy because "he is just a game manager of a machine", he simply was not asked to make those throws very often, if at all. (Not really proud of the sentence construction, but read it like it was spoken).

If you JImH at Michigan you don't need to heave it up like the Washington Huskies. You are going to move the ball methodically. How many vertical routes that require the rainbow are there in a game?

Remember, the entire college game is different. There are issues with all of these players because of this. What you really need to evaluate is which players can make the throws and if they have technique issues, which ones can be corrected. Slight footwork issues are easily corrected and McCarthy has those. Getting loft on your vertical throws is something that relatively easily be developed if the guy has the arm. Gaining touch is something that can be developed with experience.

That is the difference, in my opinion at least, between JJ McCarthy/Drake Maye vs. Michael Penix. Penix's technique issue is his arm angle and that is a lot more ingrained muscle memory than slight adjustments to the footwork.

Another note on Penix in this Maye/McCarthy thread. During the draft process there are a lot of rumors flying around, most of them utterly false and utterly ridiculous, especially in this internet era were there are 25,000 mock draft experts posting. But sometimes you start hearing whispers, indirect but dark, and the whispered, indirect rumors usually have a lot more veracity than the ones shouted out online. And the one dark whisper I am hearing by reading between lines is that the NFL teams evaluation on Penix's medical is not good.

did you watch that kiper clip?

[Beef Supreme]

This video clearly shows JJ’s strengths and weaknesses on deep passes.

Need something fired into a tight window over the middle? Check.

Need him to get outside the pocket with his eyes downfield when coverage breaks down? Check.

Need him to drop a rainbow into a bucket and let his receiver run under it? Most definitely not check.

While I have shown some of the issues with JJ McCarthy, I still am not certain on the "definitely not check" issue. Here is why. Just like some people (falsely) lower their grade on McCarthy because "he is just a game manager of a machine", he simply was not asked to make those throws very often, if at all. (Not really proud of the sentence construction, but read it like it was spoken).

If you JImH at Michigan you don't need to heave it up like the Washington Huskies. You are going to move the ball methodically. How many vertical routes that require the rainbow are there in a game?

Remember, the entire college game is different. There are issues with all of these players because of this. What you really need to evaluate is which players can make the throws and if they have technique issues, which ones can be corrected. Slight footwork issues are easily corrected and McCarthy has those. Getting loft on your vertical throws is something that relatively easily be developed if the guy has the arm. Gaining touch is something that can be developed with experience.

That is the difference, in my opinion at least, between JJ McCarthy/Drake Maye vs. Michael Penix. Penix's technique issue is his arm angle and that is a lot more ingrained muscle memory than slight adjustments to the footwork.

Another note on Penix in this Maye/McCarthy thread. During the draft process there are a lot of rumors flying around, most of them utterly false and utterly ridiculous, especially in this internet era were there are 25,000 mock draft experts posting. But sometimes you start hearing whispers, indirect but dark, and the whispered, indirect rumors usually have a lot more veracity than the ones shouted out online. And the one dark whisper I am hearing by reading between lines is that the NFL teams evaluation on Penix's medical is not good.

Why do you say that?

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport stated that Penix's medical testing “went well” and added that the potential first-round pick received “positive reviews” in terms of his medical evaluation. “Any medical questions that Penix had seem to be kind of pushed a little back under the radar,” Rapoport said.

That was the reporting after the combine. Has there been new evidence? The medical clearance or not clearance of Penix is a big deal. Are you saying Rapoport was fed misinformation? I’m not saying that’s impossible, but I think it’s fair to ask where the contrary information is coming from.




As far as JJ. I agree that he hasn’t been asked to do certain things much. And I agree that if coached up and given opportunity to donut, he could be able to. It’s not a matter of physical arm strength. Concerns about that are silly. It’s touch, anticipation, and timing. Yes, that could develop with coaching and reps. But it also could not develop and remain a huge, exploitable hole in his game, at least through his rookie contract and first stop in the NFL. That means he’s got some project to him and that there are questions about his ability to make all the throws. That’s a red flag in the top-5 of the draft to me.

I’m cool with JJ. I’m not D_H. I’m not anti-JJ. But I don’t think it’s sacrilege to point out his very real flaws that could be major obstacles if not corrected.

It’s like Drake Maye’s feet. They need work. No shame in pointing that out or admitting that. Doesn’t mean you’re an irrational hater. It just means you’re having honest conversation.

[-VikingsTw-]

JJ was throwing dimes down the field yesterday at his Pro Day. Now it is a pro day so lets keep that in mind but Teddy had a bad pro day and was not a productive passer way downfield. He might got better if the injury didn't derail his momentum.

One of the reason's I initially said I would not move up for JJ was the deep ball he has on tape along with a few other things like consistent ball placement, frame, lack of passing attempts and more grind it out games where it's not a blow out.

I'm cool with seeing if he drops or if they move up and lose 23 so be it. Losing next years first, not really sure I'm a fan of that in any scenario but life will move on and opportunities are everywhere when it comes to prospects.

There is a world where JJ's elite work ethic and character traits take him over the top in his career evolution. I'm certainly banking on that as part of my evaluation of him, I think it's gonna happen given a good squad to work with. Some of the things he has going on with his game right now or perceived weaknesses can turn into strengths and at no point have I really been worried about the overall arm strength.

[weimy froob]

JJ was throwing dimes down the field yesterday at his Pro Day. Now it is a pro day so lets keep that in mind but Teddy had a bad pro day and was not a productive passer way downfield. He might got better if the injury didn't derail his momentum.

One of the reason's I initially said I would not move up for JJ was the deep ball he has on tape along with a few other things like consistent ball placement, frame, lack of passing attempts and more grind it out games where it's not a blow out.

I'm cool with seeing if he drops or if they move up and lose 23 so be it. Losing next years first, not really sure I'm a fan of that in any scenario but life will move on and opportunities are everywhere when it comes to prospects.

There is a world where JJ's elite work ethic and character traits take him over the top in his career evolution. I'm certainly banking on that as part of my evaluation of him, I think it's gonna happen given a good squad to work with. Some of the things he has going on with his game right now or perceived weaknesses can turn into strengths and at no point have I really been worried about the overall arm strength.

link?

[-VikingsTw-]

Ha I just that ball speed throw from all those QB. That's really interesting to see them all do it back to back to back. JJ most certainly blew them away with throwing torque.

What does that mean exactly, I don't know but Favre kinda threw a hard ball and it comes in handy when you need to hit a guy quickly and get the ball on him before defenders close in. Or get the ball to him quickly out his break and on time can lead to YAC. And you see that in his tape.

[-VikingsTw-]

JJ was throwing dimes down the field yesterday at his Pro Day. Now it is a pro day so lets keep that in mind but Teddy had a bad pro day and was not a productive passer way downfield. He might got better if the injury didn't derail his momentum.

One of the reason's I initially said I would not move up for JJ was the deep ball he has on tape along with a few other things like consistent ball placement, frame, lack of passing attempts and more grind it out games where it's not a blow out.

I'm cool with seeing if he drops or if they move up and lose 23 so be it. Losing next years first, not really sure I'm a fan of that in any scenario but life will move on and opportunities are everywhere when it comes to prospects.

There is a world where JJ's elite work ethic and character traits take him over the top in his career evolution. I'm certainly banking on that as part of my evaluation of him, I think it's gonna happen given a good squad to work with. Some of the things he has going on with his game right now or perceived weaknesses can turn into strengths and at no point have I really been worried about the overall arm strength.

link?

All the deep throws start at 1:15 or so. His full workout is on youtube, I just saw it somewhere was like a 6 min video.


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[weimy froob]

Ha I just that ball speed throw from all those QB. That's really interesting to see them all do it back to back to back. JJ most certainly blew them away with throwing torque.

What does that mean exactly, I don't know but Favre kinda threw a hard ball and it comes in handy when you need to hit a guy quickly and get the ball on him before defenders close in. Or get the ball to him quickly out his break and on time can lead to YAC. And you see that in his tape.

i really like the way he zings it. i think the vikings wide receivers can make the catches on those hard-thrown balls where they have to raise their hands up some to grab it.

[mlhouse]

Why do you say that?

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport stated that Penix's medical testing “went well” and added that the potential first-round pick received “positive reviews” in terms of his medical evaluation. “Any medical questions that Penix had seem to be kind of pushed a little back under the radar,” Rapoport said.

That was the reporting after the combine. Has there been new evidence? The medical clearance or not clearance of Penix is a big deal. Are you saying Rapoport was fed misinformation? I’m not saying that’s impossible, but I think it’s fair to ask where the contrary information is coming from.

Again, that report is something that is being shouted out. I am not saying Rapaport isn't a legitimate reporter either just that the statement "went well" seems to be a lot of window dressing.

I basically said why. I have seen some discussion by people similar to Ian that are discussing Penix's draft position and I am reading between the lines. This could very well be a false conclusion on my part for sure. You never know. Most medical is closely held by the NFL and it is also a reason awhy sometimes players are selected way lower than what it would seem.

[Beef Supreme]

Why do you say that?

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport stated that Penix's medical testing “went well” and added that the potential first-round pick received “positive reviews” in terms of his medical evaluation. “Any medical questions that Penix had seem to be kind of pushed a little back under the radar,” Rapoport said.

That was the reporting after the combine. Has there been new evidence? The medical clearance or not clearance of Penix is a big deal. Are you saying Rapoport was fed misinformation? I’m not saying that’s impossible, but I think it’s fair to ask where the contrary information is coming from.

Again, that report is something that is being shouted out. I am not saying Rapaport isn't a legitimate reporter either just that the statement "went well" seems to be a lot of window dressing.

I basically said why. I have seen some discussion by people similar to Ian that are discussing Penix's draft position and I am reading between the lines. This could very well be a false conclusion on my part for sure. You never know. Most medical is closely held by the NFL and it is also a reason awhy sometimes players are selected way lower than what it would seem.

It is entirely possible that you are guessing right. I’m not a doctor and have not examined Penix. I’m just going by what’s being said. Anything could be a lie/misinformation at this point. All we know is what we see. And we did see two consecutive healthy seasons with over 1100 throws out of Penix. That’s not nothing.

[mlhouse]

It is entirely possible that you are guessing right. I’m not a doctor and have not examined Penix. I’m just going by what’s being said. Anything could be a lie/misinformation at this point. All we know is what we see. And we did see two consecutive healthy seasons with over 1100 throws out of Penix. That’s not nothing.

I agree. We are not privy to all of the draft information teams have and they keep a lot of that info confidential. But, NFL teams take the medical and off field reports very seriously and put more weight on them in determining draft value than the casual fan understands.

SO if you hear a report that Penix is not on some teams draft boards ------->>>>> MEDICAL.

The report might be incorrect. I have heard two separate conversations that were identical but I cannot remember who was saying this. But the indirect way of saying it to me makes it more believable because that is how certain scouts/insiders talk vs. some internet hack screaming out loud PENIX MIGHT NOT GET DRAFTED BECAUSE OF HIS KNEES.

Take it for what it is worth and discount it a bit because I cant even remember the names of who said this.

[William Munny]

JJ was throwing dimes down the field yesterday at his Pro Day. Now it is a pro day so lets keep that in mind but Teddy had a bad pro day and was not a productive passer way downfield. He might got better if the injury didn't derail his momentum.

One of the reason's I initially said I would not move up for JJ was the deep ball he has on tape along with a few other things like consistent ball placement, frame, lack of passing attempts and more grind it out games where it's not a blow out.

I'm cool with seeing if he drops or if they move up and lose 23 so be it. Losing next years first, not really sure I'm a fan of that in any scenario but life will move on and opportunities are everywhere when it comes to prospects.

There is a world where JJ's elite work ethic and character traits take him over the top in his career evolution. I'm certainly banking on that as part of my evaluation of him, I think it's gonna happen given a good squad to work with. Some of the things he has going on with his game right now or perceived weaknesses can turn into strengths and at no point have I really been worried about the overall arm strength.

link?

All the deep throws start at 1:15 or so. His full workout is on youtube, I just saw it somewhere was like a 6 min video.


Click here to learn how to add YouTube Videos to your phpBB forum

The kid looks great. He is certainly a much thicker/sturdier looking QB that stick-boy Daniels. It is going to be fun to hear the butt hurt from some when JJ becomes a Viking.

[Beef Supreme]

It is entirely possible that you are guessing right. I’m not a doctor and have not examined Penix. I’m just going by what’s being said. Anything could be a lie/misinformation at this point. All we know is what we see. And we did see two consecutive healthy seasons with over 1100 throws out of Penix. That’s not nothing.

I agree. We are not privy to all of the draft information teams have and they keep a lot of that info confidential. But, NFL teams take the medical and off field reports very seriously and put more weight on them in determining draft value than the casual fan understands.

SO if you hear a report that Penix is not on some teams draft boards ------->>>>> MEDICAL.

The report might be incorrect. I have heard two separate conversations that were identical but I cannot remember who was saying this. But the indirect way of saying it to me makes it more believable because that is how certain scouts/insiders talk vs. some internet hack screaming out loud PENIX MIGHT NOT GET DRAFTED BECAUSE OF HIS KNEES.

Take it for what it is worth and discount it a bit because I cant even remember the names of who said this.

Hearsay at this point, but sometimes hearsay is borne out. We can’t know. I’ll continue to put stock in the official reports. But I don’t really know either. They’re wrong sometimes too.

[mlhouse]

It is entirely possible that you are guessing right. I’m not a doctor and have not examined Penix. I’m just going by what’s being said. Anything could be a lie/misinformation at this point. All we know is what we see. And we did see two consecutive healthy seasons with over 1100 throws out of Penix. That’s not nothing.

I agree. We are not privy to all of the draft information teams have and they keep a lot of that info confidential. But, NFL teams take the medical and off field reports very seriously and put more weight on them in determining draft value than the casual fan understands.

SO if you hear a report that Penix is not on some teams draft boards ------->>>>> MEDICAL.

The report might be incorrect. I have heard two separate conversations that were identical but I cannot remember who was saying this. But the indirect way of saying it to me makes it more believable because that is how certain scouts/insiders talk vs. some internet hack screaming out loud PENIX MIGHT NOT GET DRAFTED BECAUSE OF HIS KNEES.

Take it for what it is worth and discount it a bit because I cant even remember the names of who said this.

Hearsay at this point, but sometimes hearsay is borne out. We can’t know. I’ll continue to put stock in the official reports. But I don’t really know either. They’re wrong sometimes too.

Everything is hearsay. And there is no such thing as "official reports", especially on medical.

[Beef Supreme]

I agree. We are not privy to all of the draft information teams have and they keep a lot of that info confidential. But, NFL teams take the medical and off field reports very seriously and put more weight on them in determining draft value than the casual fan understands.

SO if you hear a report that Penix is not on some teams draft boards ------->>>>> MEDICAL.

The report might be incorrect. I have heard two separate conversations that were identical but I cannot remember who was saying this. But the indirect way of saying it to me makes it more believable because that is how certain scouts/insiders talk vs. some internet hack screaming out loud PENIX MIGHT NOT GET DRAFTED BECAUSE OF HIS KNEES.

Take it for what it is worth and discount it a bit because I cant even remember the names of who said this.

Hearsay at this point, but sometimes hearsay is borne out. We can’t know. I’ll continue to put stock in the official reports. But I don’t really know either. They’re wrong sometimes too.

Everything is hearsay. And there is no such thing as "official reports", especially on medical.

Semantics.


There’s a difference between what Rapoport reports from being at the combine and you trying to piece together things you interpret from reading between the lines.


Call each whatever you want. But they’re not the same thing.

[mlhouse]

Hearsay at this point, but sometimes hearsay is borne out. We can’t know. I’ll continue to put stock in the official reports. But I don’t really know either. They’re wrong sometimes too.

Everything is hearsay. And there is no such thing as "official reports", especially on medical.

Semantics.


There’s a difference between what Rapoport reports from being at the combine and you trying to piece together things you interpret from reading between the lines.


Call each whatever you want. But they’re not the same thing.

And you can discount all you want, but when Rapaprot says "went well" that is not necessarily telling you the entire truth.

[Beef Supreme]

Everything is hearsay. And there is no such thing as "official reports", especially on medical.

Semantics.


There’s a difference between what Rapoport reports from being at the combine and you trying to piece together things you interpret from reading between the lines.


Call each whatever you want. But they’re not the same thing.

And you can discount all you want, but when Rapaprot says "went well" that is not necessarily telling you the entire truth.

Sure. But I think filling in the gaps with speculation is even more foolhardy.


We’ll never know the real truth unless all 32 teams take him off their board.

[weimy froob]

link?

All the deep throws start at 1:15 or so. His full workout is on youtube, I just saw it somewhere was like a 6 min video.


Click here to learn how to add YouTube Videos to your phpBB forum

The kid looks great. He is certainly a much thicker/sturdier looking QB that stick-boy Daniels. It is going to be fun to hear the butt hurt from some when JJ becomes a Viking.

i liked the uniform. deep throws were on target too.

[mnbob70]

At this point I don't think I want either Maye or McCarthy if it costs both 1st round picks this year and a future first round pick. But I also assume that Vikings management is going all in on "their guy".

[witljon]

As far as JJ. I agree that he hasn’t been asked to do certain things much. And I agree that if coached up and given opportunity to donut, he could be able to. It’s not a matter of physical arm strength. Concerns about that are silly. It’s touch, anticipation, and timing. Yes, that could develop with coaching and reps. But it also could not develop and remain a huge, exploitable hole in his game, at least through his rookie contract and first stop in the NFL. That means he’s got some project to him and that there are questions about his ability to make all the throws. That’s a red flag in the top-5 of the draft to me.

I’m cool with JJ. I’m not D_H. I’m not anti-JJ. But I don’t think it’s sacrilege to point out his very real flaws that could be major obstacles if not corrected.

It’s like Drake Maye’s feet. They need work. No shame in pointing that out or admitting that. Doesn’t mean you’re an irrational hater. It just means you’re having honest conversation.

I’m not anti JJ, but would have loved to see more from him in his games. There’s been a lot of McCarthy hype that I did not buy into. I was hoping to be convinced, but it hasn’t happened yet

[D_H]

This video clearly shows JJ’s strengths and weaknesses on deep passes.

Need something fired into a tight window over the middle? Check.

Need him to get outside the pocket with his eyes downfield when coverage breaks down? Check.

Need him to drop a rainbow into a bucket and let his receiver run under it? Most definitely not check.

He’s complete garbage there’s a reason Jim Harbaugh tried to hide him in the national championship game

[D_H]

As far as JJ. I agree that he hasn’t been asked to do certain things much. And I agree that if coached up and given opportunity to donut, he could be able to. It’s not a matter of physical arm strength. Concerns about that are silly. It’s touch, anticipation, and timing. Yes, that could develop with coaching and reps. But it also could not develop and remain a huge, exploitable hole in his game, at least through his rookie contract and first stop in the NFL. That means he’s got some project to him and that there are questions about his ability to make all the throws. That’s a red flag in the top-5 of the draft to me.

I’m cool with JJ. I’m not D_H. I’m not anti-JJ. But I don’t think it’s sacrilege to point out his very real flaws that could be major obstacles if not corrected.

It’s like Drake Maye’s feet. They need work. No shame in pointing that out or admitting that. Doesn’t mean you’re an irrational hater. It just means you’re having honest conversation.

I’m not anti JJ, but would have loved to see more from him in his games. There’s been a lot of McCarthy hype that I did not buy into. I was hoping to be convinced, but it hasn’t happened yet

The hype is coming from his camp, not NFL people thank God the Minnesota Vikings don’t buy it. When the head coach and the general manager did not show up at your Pro day that tells you everything you need to know.