Fire Kwesi!

[Butch Bradford]

[hategreenticemase]

Jesus Christ, will you just go away already. Good Lord.

[Butch Bradford]

Jesus Christ, will you just go away already. Good Lord.

It doesn't alarm you in the least that our GM gets his analytics from PFF?

I thought that's what differentiated him from all the other candidates as GM.

I mean, if that's all it takes (scouring the internet for analytics @PFF), then you could be GM, hates!

[mlhouse]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

[salamander]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

I'm a big fan of feeling the ebb and flow of the game in these situations too. If you're struggling to run and it's 4th and 1. I'm fine with a quick hitting pass in that situation. Even if it fails.

[Oriole81]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

I'm a big fan of feeling the ebb and flow of the game in these situations too. If you're struggling to run and it's 4th and 1. I'm fine with a quick hitting pass in that situation. Even if it fails.

Or tush push with a 180 lb WR.
They would never expect it.

[Small Hands]

That can’t be a real quote.

[BuDG123]

There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics - Mark Twain, British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, my McKinsey Institute Stastics and Probability Professor. He actually warned us about how news would be shaped this way, especially for elections. He thought the tech would be possible to make this have a noticeable impact on actual elections to take place between 2010-2024 with a +/- of 2% accuracy rating at 99.99% assuredness in 1990.

He was right. You see it all over. I always mistrusted the statistics guy the because that spreadsheet guru would never do, only rate those that do. Which is bullshit.

Kwesi is suspect in this regard.. the most damage he has done is when he weight measured The supposed statistical value on draft picks over common sense in the first draft for instance..how’d that work out?…

[mlhouse]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

I'm a big fan of feeling the ebb and flow of the game in these situations too. If you're struggling to run and it's 4th and 1. I'm fine with a quick hitting pass in that situation. Even if it fails.

Sometimes I think coaches get into parts of the games were everything they call works. And then there are parts of the games were everything they call does not. Ebb and flow. Momentum. A lot of it has to do with figuring shit out.

[Den Den]

I'm never going to forgive him for the Hamilton debacle

[salamander]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

I'm a big fan of feeling the ebb and flow of the game in these situations too. If you're struggling to run and it's 4th and 1. I'm fine with a quick hitting pass in that situation. Even if it fails.

Or tush push with a 180 lb WR.
They would never expect it.

[salamander]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

I'm a big fan of feeling the ebb and flow of the game in these situations too. If you're struggling to run and it's 4th and 1. I'm fine with a quick hitting pass in that situation. Even if it fails.

Sometimes I think coaches get into parts of the games were everything they call works. And then there are parts of the games were everything they call does not. Ebb and flow. Momentum. A lot of it has to do with figuring shit out.

100%

[hategreenticemase]

That can’t be a real quote.

Ah, ya.

[Da Gas Man's Ghost]

I'm never going to forgive him for the Hamilton debacle

You're more of a Andrew Lloyd Webber guy?

[Oriole81]

I'm never going to forgive him for the Hamilton debacle

You're more of a Andrew Lloyd Webber guy?

[BuDG123]

I'm never going to forgive him for the Hamilton debacle

You're more of a Andrew Lloyd Webber guy?

The Battle over the Bank: Hamilton v. Jefferson

The necessary and proper clause, part of Article I of the Constitution, allowed for Congress to make laws and provisions that were not part of the enumerated powers. Hamilton and Jefferson debated many times over what was meant by "necessary and proper." Hamilton took a more liberal reading of the clause and said that Congress should do anything it felt was necessary to carry out national responsibilities. Jefferson held that the clause meant that Congress should only take actions that were absolutely necessary, and no more. In 1791, Hamilton proposed that the United States charter a national bank in order to take care of Revolutionary War debt, create a single national currency, and stimulate the economy. Jefferson argued that the creation of a national bank was not a power granted under the enumerated powers, nor was it necessary and proper. Both gentlemen presented their arguments to Washington, and ultimately Washington agreed with Hamilton who shot Burr in that duel..

If not for Hamilton’s bad Combine, he likely went ahead of us..we missed that one for sure.

[Oriole81]

You're more of a Andrew Lloyd Webber guy?

The Battle over the Bank: Hamilton v. Jefferson

The necessary and proper clause, part of Article I of the Constitution, allowed for Congress to make laws and provisions that were not part of the enumerated powers. Hamilton and Jefferson debated many times over what was meant by "necessary and proper." Hamilton took a more liberal reading of the clause and said that Congress should do anything it felt was necessary to carry out national responsibilities. Jefferson held that the clause meant that Congress should only take actions that were absolutely necessary, and no more. In 1791, Hamilton proposed that the United States charter a national bank in order to take care of Revolutionary War debt, create a single national currency, and stimulate the economy. Jefferson argued that the creation of a national bank was not a power granted under the enumerated powers, nor was it necessary and proper. Both gentlemen presented their arguments to Washington, and ultimately Washington agreed with Hamilton who shot Burr in that duel..

If not for Hamilton’s bad Combine, he likely went ahead of us..we missed that one for sure.

oh yeah well, Jefferson rizzed up Livvy Dunne.
who's the real winner here?

[cunningham]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

I'm a big fan of feeling the ebb and flow of the game in these situations too. If you're struggling to run and it's 4th and 1. I'm fine with a quick hitting pass in that situation. Even if it fails.

Sometimes I think coaches get into parts of the games were everything they call works. And then there are parts of the games were everything they call does not. Ebb and flow. Momentum. A lot of it has to do with figuring shit out.

That is what bothers me when people just spout out Kirk Cousins' stats. Yes, overall the guy has great stats, but in the game he does poorly with momentum. He will play amazing when the pressure comes off, but there are times when we really need something where he comes up totally short. It is hard to explain to the stat analysts here about ebb and flow. They just give the overall stat line.

I remember when Dobbs came in and all of a sudden we were up by a ton in a game. It was strange to see a quarterback just keep scoring and run the score up. It was refreshing after watching Cousins usually play from behind or pull ahead at the right moment. Yes, games are super close in the NFL, but I cannot tell you the number of times it is the 3rd quarter, momentum has shifted, we really need to just get a first down and control the clock, but Cousins goes 3 and out. Many times the offensive line doesn't help him, but it is the most frustrating part of Cousins. He doesn't do when when the momentum changes. If anything we usually go down even further, the other team sends out their prevent defense, and we fight for the tie.

[mlhouse]

I'm a big fan of feeling the ebb and flow of the game in these situations too. If you're struggling to run and it's 4th and 1. I'm fine with a quick hitting pass in that situation. Even if it fails.

Sometimes I think coaches get into parts of the games were everything they call works. And then there are parts of the games were everything they call does not. Ebb and flow. Momentum. A lot of it has to do with figuring shit out.

That is what bothers me when people just spout out Kirk Cousins' stats. Yes, overall the guy has great stats, but in the game he does poorly with momentum. He will play amazing when the pressure comes off, but there are times when we really need something where he comes up totally short. It is hard to explain to the stat analysts here about ebb and flow. They just give the overall stat line.

I remember when Dobbs came in and all of a sudden we were up by a ton in a game. It was strange to see a quarterback just keep scoring and run the score up. It was refreshing after watching Cousins usually play from behind or pull ahead at the right moment. Yes, games are super close in the NFL, but I cannot tell you the number of times it is the 3rd quarter, momentum has shifted, we really need to just get a first down and control the clock, but Cousins goes 3 and out. Many times the offensive line doesn't help him, but it is the most frustrating part of Cousins. He doesn't do when when the momentum changes. If anything we usually go down even further, the other team sends out their prevent defense, and we fight for the tie.

LOL... ok. It gets old hearing people spout off about Kirk Cousins. In 2022 we won game after game because Cousins came up HUGE. Cousins has actually played really well in the "spotlight" games most of his career, such as the 2018 Thursday night game agaisnt the Rams. But of course we LOST that game so fans like you place the blame on Cousins.

[Beef Supreme]

One of my son's friends has a PhD in statistics and he works for a NFL team doing analysis.

I think there is a place for analytics but the real problem for football analytics is the sample sizes of most events are incredibly small. I get a kick out of how they carry the precision of some of their "analysis": that catch has a 15.895333305% chance of completion. When you see over precision in a measurement that is usually an indication of the imprecise character of the measure overall.

"Analytics say going for it on 4th down" is the correct call? Bulllshit. How many other times has that team been in that exact situation against that defense? In fact, I think all of these 4th down "analytics" are washed together into situations that are meaningless to the decision maker.

Your son's friend is right. Statistics only provides useful information when it compares similar things. The less similar the things, the less useful the statistical model will be. And the more iterations of the similar thing that happens, the more accurate the statistical information will be, and the fewer iterations, the more inaccurate the stat will be. Furthermore, the statistical information will only be usefully predictive when also given a lot of iterations (reps).


For example, take a very analytic sport like Baseball. If you have a guy who is a .250 hitter the past 7 years, you can reasonably predict he'll hit around .250 in year 8, barring other circumstances (injury, PED use, etc.). That's because a baseball player gets around 600 at-bats in a year. Multiply that by 7 years and you get 4200 at bats. That's a statistically relevant sample. But again, that only predicts a reasonable estimate for his next 600 at-bats in the next year. It does not give you an accurate estimate of what he'll do in a given game. He easily could go 0-4 or 4-5. Also, that .250 average is against all sorts of pitchers, good ones and bad ones, averaged out. You could probably expect that against some scrub, he might hit better than .250 and against a Cy Young candidate, he might hit less than .250. But again, because a given night is a small sample, maybe goes 0-4 against the scrub and maybe he hits 4-4 against Cy Young.

Football in-game analytics typically don't have enough iterations or "reps" of relevant similar information to be statistically useful. For example, much was made in the NFCCG about Campbell's decision to eschew the FG late in the 3rd and go for it. It was cited as an analytic that kicking the FG gave the Lions an 82% win chance and going for it gave them an 85% win chance. This was cited to say that the analytics supported Campbell's decision.

But what is that analytic based on? I believe it was a aggregate stat of all teams who have been in that situation, how many of them won who made choice A vs how many won who made choice B. And that isn't similar enough to the Lions circumstance to be statistically determinative. All teams are not the 2023-4 Lions and the 2023-4 Lions are not all teams. And all teams were not playing against the 2023-4 San Francisco 49ers in their stadium. And even if that Lions team had somehow previously been in that exact situation against that 49ers team, it wouldn't have happened enough to be truly statistically relevant.

And even if there were enough reps of that specific scenario (impossible, but play along), analytics still don't say what you should do. Analytics are just data. The above 85/82 stat doesn't say "you must make the 85 choice." That's a misunderstanding of what analytics are. They're not contracts written in blood. They're just data. Is it useful to know that in the history of the NFL (or since 2000 or whatever) teams that chose A win at this rate and teams that chose B win at a different rate? Sure. But it's not a law. It's just data. And it's not all the data. There is other data too that must be considered. Say it's a 4th and 1. The conversion rate is X. But if you have prime Marshawn Lynch in your backfield, that changes the calculus and you have to consider that. But say you're going against the 2000 Ravens D. That also changes the calculus and you have to consider that too.

Ultimately, the coach has to make the decision. Analytical data should be part of that calculus, but it's just a factor. It's not the answer all by itself. Consider the analytical data, but also consider game flow, your team's confidence, home/away, and a myriad of other factors.

And then in the end, even if you think there's a good chance of success on a decision, it's still a single iteration (or rep) of what the model is trying to predict. And the model isn't predictive. If you have something with a 55% success rate, that means there's a 45% failure rate. And that's a significant chance in a one-shot instance. You do that instance a 1,000 times, and choosing the 55% success option will pay off. But once? Not a useful statistical predictor at all.

[hategreenticemase]

Good and relevant stuff from Mlhouse and Beefie.

Statistics and analytics have their place. It can help shape general strategic beliefs and concepts a HC wants to do. It can also give feedback on how a team is actually doing in certain things vs how it's perception is.

Those two rubes nailed it on why this over "hailing" analytics is silly, so I will just add this. For the same reasons they aptly showed the flaws, the reverse is also true in the analytics screamers. Meaning, if Det had made the first down and won the game in spite of themselves then the screamers would be hailing that decision as the reason they won the game. It proves nothing.

There is a reason why for a hundred years teams punt the ball on their side of the field. There is reasons why most often they kick a FG when they have an opportunity to add points, unless it's a 4th and short.

[Beef Supreme]

I will add that the OP’s post is being mocked on Twitter/x for hilariously taking a Kwesi quote in Coller’s book out of context to mean something it doesn’t mean.


I haven’t read the book, so I don’t know the actual context, but he isn’t saying he uses PFF grades to make football decisions.

[Hector]

Sometimes I think coaches get into parts of the games were everything they call works. And then there are parts of the games were everything they call does not. Ebb and flow. Momentum. A lot of it has to do with figuring shit out.

That is what bothers me when people just spout out Kirk Cousins' stats. Yes, overall the guy has great stats, but in the game he does poorly with momentum. He will play amazing when the pressure comes off, but there are times when we really need something where he comes up totally short. It is hard to explain to the stat analysts here about ebb and flow. They just give the overall stat line.

I remember when Dobbs came in and all of a sudden we were up by a ton in a game. It was strange to see a quarterback just keep scoring and run the score up. It was refreshing after watching Cousins usually play from behind or pull ahead at the right moment. Yes, games are super close in the NFL, but I cannot tell you the number of times it is the 3rd quarter, momentum has shifted, we really need to just get a first down and control the clock, but Cousins goes 3 and out. Many times the offensive line doesn't help him, but it is the most frustrating part of Cousins. He doesn't do when when the momentum changes. If anything we usually go down even further, the other team sends out their prevent defense, and we fight for the tie.

LOL... ok. It gets old hearing people spout off about Kirk Cousins. In 2022 we won game after game because Cousins came up HUGE. Cousins has actually played really well in the "spotlight" games most of his career, such as the 2018 Thursday night game agaisnt the Rams. But of course we LOST that game so fans like you place the blame on Cousins.

I'm not sure why you bring up that Rams game...the Vikings last drive literally ended because Kirk didn't see the pressure happening to his left, didn't step up in the pocket and lost the fumble. He was also lucky the drive before that a defender tipped a pass to Diggs instead of intercepting it.

[mlhouse]

Football in-game analytics typically don't have enough iterations or "reps" of relevant similar information to be statistically useful. For example, much was made in the NFCCG about Campbell's decision to eschew the FG late in the 3rd and go for it. It was cited as an analytic that kicking the FG gave the Lions an 82% win chance and going for it gave them an 85% win chance. This was cited to say that the analytics supported Campbell's decision.

I agree with you. I believe that you are citing correct numbers that were reported but I doubt they have any accuracy. Lets say kicking the field goal on 4th down gave the team a 82% chance to win. One of the problems with "going for it" in that situation is that in a significant number of outcomes your team will be facing 4th down and a field goal.

So, for all of those outcomes the only improvement in taking the risk of going for it on 4th down is to slightly improve your field goal chances.

I believe that if Detroit CONVERTS on 4th down that improves their chances of winning the game to 85% (see the above about kicking field goal). But what it very certainly ignores is what happens if you fail. The win probability has to be much lower than 82% on the decision because turning the ball over there would enhance the opponents ability to score with solid field position.

[cunningham]

Sometimes I think coaches get into parts of the games were everything they call works. And then there are parts of the games were everything they call does not. Ebb and flow. Momentum. A lot of it has to do with figuring shit out.

That is what bothers me when people just spout out Kirk Cousins' stats. Yes, overall the guy has great stats, but in the game he does poorly with momentum. He will play amazing when the pressure comes off, but there are times when we really need something where he comes up totally short. It is hard to explain to the stat analysts here about ebb and flow. They just give the overall stat line.

I remember when Dobbs came in and all of a sudden we were up by a ton in a game. It was strange to see a quarterback just keep scoring and run the score up. It was refreshing after watching Cousins usually play from behind or pull ahead at the right moment. Yes, games are super close in the NFL, but I cannot tell you the number of times it is the 3rd quarter, momentum has shifted, we really need to just get a first down and control the clock, but Cousins goes 3 and out. Many times the offensive line doesn't help him, but it is the most frustrating part of Cousins. He doesn't do when when the momentum changes. If anything we usually go down even further, the other team sends out their prevent defense, and we fight for the tie.

LOL... ok. It gets old hearing people spout off about Kirk Cousins. In 2022 we won game after game because Cousins came up HUGE. Cousins has actually played really well in the "spotlight" games most of his career, such as the 2018 Thursday night game agaisnt the Rams. But of course we LOST that game so fans like you place the blame on Cousins.

I don't like Cousins. He has grown on me, but he also frustrates me more than any quarterback I have ever watched. He digs holes, yes, he does dig out of them, but he sometimes folds when we need him most. I'm not talking about big games... I'm talking about at crucial times in games. When we need to control the clock... When the momentum shifts.

I get that lots of quarterbacks struggle with that, but Kirk is going to be the riches QB in NFL history by the end of his career. With one playoff win.

I would blame KOC and his lack of a running game, but this goes back to before KOC was brought here. This team has bent over backward to support Cousins. Yet the results are usually the same.

He just isn't good enough. We can keep playing with him and maybe win a playoff game again, but he isn't good enough to win a Super Bowl. He isn't good enough to win the NFC Championship. So you can keep paying him and playing him, or you can keep looking for the guy.

I'm good having him another year, but we need to think about the future if we want to actually win the Super Bowl. KOC is very green and so is KAM. We have a long way to go with those two before we have what the two Super Bowl teams have. Paying Cousins all this money and hiring coaches, GMs, and everyone else to help him takes from Peter to pay Paul.

The game is way too complicated to blame one player or coach for anything.

[mlhouse]

That is what bothers me when people just spout out Kirk Cousins' stats. Yes, overall the guy has great stats, but in the game he does poorly with momentum. He will play amazing when the pressure comes off, but there are times when we really need something where he comes up totally short. It is hard to explain to the stat analysts here about ebb and flow. They just give the overall stat line.

I remember when Dobbs came in and all of a sudden we were up by a ton in a game. It was strange to see a quarterback just keep scoring and run the score up. It was refreshing after watching Cousins usually play from behind or pull ahead at the right moment. Yes, games are super close in the NFL, but I cannot tell you the number of times it is the 3rd quarter, momentum has shifted, we really need to just get a first down and control the clock, but Cousins goes 3 and out. Many times the offensive line doesn't help him, but it is the most frustrating part of Cousins. He doesn't do when when the momentum changes. If anything we usually go down even further, the other team sends out their prevent defense, and we fight for the tie.

LOL... ok. It gets old hearing people spout off about Kirk Cousins. In 2022 we won game after game because Cousins came up HUGE. Cousins has actually played really well in the "spotlight" games most of his career, such as the 2018 Thursday night game agaisnt the Rams. But of course we LOST that game so fans like you place the blame on Cousins.

I don't like Cousins. He has grown on me, but he also frustrates me more than any quarterback I have ever watched. He digs holes, yes, he does dig out of them, but he sometimes folds when we need him most. I'm not talking about big games... I'm talking about at crucial times in games. When we need to control the clock... When the momentum shifts.

I get that lots of quarterbacks struggle with that, but Kirk is going to be the riches QB in NFL history by the end of his career. With one playoff win.

I would blame KOC and his lack of a running game, but this goes back to before KOC was brought here. This team has bent over backward to support Cousins. Yet the results are usually the same.

He just isn't good enough. We can keep playing with him and maybe win a playoff game again, but he isn't good enough to win a Super Bowl. He isn't good enough to win the NFC Championship. So you can keep paying him and playing him, or you can keep looking for the guy.

I'm good having him another year, but we need to think about the future if we want to actually win the Super Bowl. KOC is very green and so is KAM. We have a long way to go with those two before we have what the two Super Bowl teams have. Paying Cousins all this money and hiring coaches, GMs, and everyone else to help him takes from Peter to pay Paul.

The game is way too complicated to blame one player or coach for anything.

Go look at the majority of teams records with defenses ranked 28th or worse. Kirk Cousins has been a plus win QB for almost his entire career. Getting 13 wins with the defense we had in 2022 is really an accomplishment by your QB.

That is why 2023 was such a disappointment. We threw games away. Maybe some of that was Kirk's fault, but he was really playing well before he was injured and we probably win 10+ games on the season if he stays healthy.

I think the defense took a while to gel, players and assistant coaches learning Flores schemes. And the other players just turned the ball over too much. For example, we probably win the Eagles game if JJ doesn't fumble out of bounds through the end zone. We win all of the close losses after Kirk is hurt. We probably beat the Lions at least once (we were right in the games with our backup QB and lots of errors). Once the defense got playing better the team had a chance but then lost our starter and leader.

[salamander]

That is what bothers me when people just spout out Kirk Cousins' stats. Yes, overall the guy has great stats, but in the game he does poorly with momentum. He will play amazing when the pressure comes off, but there are times when we really need something where he comes up totally short. It is hard to explain to the stat analysts here about ebb and flow. They just give the overall stat line.

I remember when Dobbs came in and all of a sudden we were up by a ton in a game. It was strange to see a quarterback just keep scoring and run the score up. It was refreshing after watching Cousins usually play from behind or pull ahead at the right moment. Yes, games are super close in the NFL, but I cannot tell you the number of times it is the 3rd quarter, momentum has shifted, we really need to just get a first down and control the clock, but Cousins goes 3 and out. Many times the offensive line doesn't help him, but it is the most frustrating part of Cousins. He doesn't do when when the momentum changes. If anything we usually go down even further, the other team sends out their prevent defense, and we fight for the tie.

LOL... ok. It gets old hearing people spout off about Kirk Cousins. In 2022 we won game after game because Cousins came up HUGE. Cousins has actually played really well in the "spotlight" games most of his career, such as the 2018 Thursday night game agaisnt the Rams. But of course we LOST that game so fans like you place the blame on Cousins.

In 2022 Cousins got beat by Daniel Jones for a first round exist. We could only muster 24 points against a bad defense.
He then followed that up by going 1-4 to start 2023.

That's who Cousins is. I understand that it gets old hearing about the fact that Cousins is not a great QB.

I also see you picked a game where Cousins did his patented Cousins thing, lighting the game on fire, getting 17 points in the first three drives and then completely falling apart, with 3 punts in the next 4 drives (FG on the other). Letting the Rams take the lead. And when the game was on the line, Cousins fumbled the ball away for the loss. Yes the defense struggled in the first half but they allowed 0 points in the 4th quarter.

We were down by 8 points going into the 2nd half. That Cousins lead offense punted or fumbled the game away on 3 of the final 5 drives. This is typical in any Cousins offense. In typical Cousins fashion. Let's not forget the Rams were #2 in yards & point/game that year. Sometimes your big money QB just needs to beat the other team. Cousins has never had the ability to do that.

At some point, it can't just all be everyone else's fault. Cousins will be a 36 year old QB who has only ever won 1 playoff game. That is directly because of Cousins play.

[Beef Supreme]

Football in-game analytics typically don't have enough iterations or "reps" of relevant similar information to be statistically useful. For example, much was made in the NFCCG about Campbell's decision to eschew the FG late in the 3rd and go for it. It was cited as an analytic that kicking the FG gave the Lions an 82% win chance and going for it gave them an 85% win chance. This was cited to say that the analytics supported Campbell's decision.

I agree with you. I believe that you are citing correct numbers that were reported but I doubt they have any accuracy. Lets say kicking the field goal on 4th down gave the team a 82% chance to win. One of the problems with "going for it" in that situation is that in a significant number of outcomes your team will be facing 4th down and a field goal.

So, for all of those outcomes the only improvement in taking the risk of going for it on 4th down is to slightly improve your field goal chances.

I believe that if Detroit CONVERTS on 4th down that improves their chances of winning the game to 85% (see the above about kicking field goal). But what it very certainly ignores is what happens if you fail. The win probability has to be much lower than 82% on the decision because turning the ball over there would enhance the opponents ability to score with solid field position.

That’s what was reported. I don’t have access to where those numbers came from to do a dive into what was and wasn’t considered.

Got to factor in the chance of a missed FG and the even better field position that would generate too.

But even if you did drill down and find the best number possible it doesn’t change the fact that analytics are only supposed to be one factor in decision-making. People who understand analytics know this. The claim is not that the analytical data should trump all other data, it is that analytical data should be considered alongside other data. And the limits of the analytical data should be considered as well.

[mlhouse]

That is what bothers me when people just spout out Kirk Cousins' stats. Yes, overall the guy has great stats, but in the game he does poorly with momentum. He will play amazing when the pressure comes off, but there are times when we really need something where he comes up totally short. It is hard to explain to the stat analysts here about ebb and flow. They just give the overall stat line.

I remember when Dobbs came in and all of a sudden we were up by a ton in a game. It was strange to see a quarterback just keep scoring and run the score up. It was refreshing after watching Cousins usually play from behind or pull ahead at the right moment. Yes, games are super close in the NFL, but I cannot tell you the number of times it is the 3rd quarter, momentum has shifted, we really need to just get a first down and control the clock, but Cousins goes 3 and out. Many times the offensive line doesn't help him, but it is the most frustrating part of Cousins. He doesn't do when when the momentum changes. If anything we usually go down even further, the other team sends out their prevent defense, and we fight for the tie.

LOL... ok. It gets old hearing people spout off about Kirk Cousins. In 2022 we won game after game because Cousins came up HUGE. Cousins has actually played really well in the "spotlight" games most of his career, such as the 2018 Thursday night game agaisnt the Rams. But of course we LOST that game so fans like you place the blame on Cousins.

In 2022 Cousins got beat by Daniel Jones for a first round exist. We could only muster 24 points against a bad defense.
He then followed that up by going 1-4 to start 2023.

That's who Cousins is. I understand that it gets old hearing about the fact that Cousins is not a great QB.

I also see you picked a game where Cousins did his patented Cousins thing, lighting the game on fire, getting 17 points in the first three drives and then completely falling apart, with 3 punts in the next 4 drives (FG on the other). Letting the Rams take the lead. And when the game was on the line, Cousins fumbled the ball away for the loss. Yes the defense struggled in the first half but they allowed 0 points in the 4th quarter.

We were down by 8 points going into the 2nd half. That Cousins lead offense punted or fumbled the game away on 3 of the final 5 drives. This is typical in any Cousins offense. In typical Cousins fashion. Let's not forget the Rams were #2 in yards & point/game that year. Sometimes your big money QB just needs to beat the other team. Cousins has never had the ability to do that.

At some point, it can't just all be everyone else's fault. Cousins will be a 36 year old QB who has only ever won 1 playoff game. That is directly because of Cousins play.

Cousins wasn't playing on the defense that gave up 38 points and 556 yards to the Rams either.

AS far as the Giants game, please. We had the worst defense in the NFL. ANd of course, in the 4th quarter they got into the red zone. Cousins ran the sneak on 4th and 1 and got the first down, only to have an illegal motion call against Darrisaw (the Giants offensive line jumped EVERY play) and instead of having the ball and opportunity to score a touchdown, the penalty forced the Vikings to kick a field goal.

If every player plays to the level of Kirk COusins you would ahve a very good football team.

[salamander]

LOL... ok. It gets old hearing people spout off about Kirk Cousins. In 2022 we won game after game because Cousins came up HUGE. Cousins has actually played really well in the "spotlight" games most of his career, such as the 2018 Thursday night game agaisnt the Rams. But of course we LOST that game so fans like you place the blame on Cousins.

In 2022 Cousins got beat by Daniel Jones for a first round exist. We could only muster 24 points against a bad defense.
He then followed that up by going 1-4 to start 2023.

That's who Cousins is. I understand that it gets old hearing about the fact that Cousins is not a great QB.

I also see you picked a game where Cousins did his patented Cousins thing, lighting the game on fire, getting 17 points in the first three drives and then completely falling apart, with 3 punts in the next 4 drives (FG on the other). Letting the Rams take the lead. And when the game was on the line, Cousins fumbled the ball away for the loss. Yes the defense struggled in the first half but they allowed 0 points in the 4th quarter.

We were down by 8 points going into the 2nd half. That Cousins lead offense punted or fumbled the game away on 3 of the final 5 drives. This is typical in any Cousins offense. In typical Cousins fashion. Let's not forget the Rams were #2 in yards & point/game that year. Sometimes your big money QB just needs to beat the other team. Cousins has never had the ability to do that.

At some point, it can't just all be everyone else's fault. Cousins will be a 36 year old QB who has only ever won 1 playoff game. That is directly because of Cousins play.

Cousins wasn't playing on the defense that gave up 38 points and 556 yards to the Rams either.

AS far as the Giants game, please. We had the worst defense in the NFL. ANd of course, in the 4th quarter they got into the red zone. Cousins ran the sneak on 4th and 1 and got the first down, only to have an illegal motion call against Darrisaw (the Giants offensive line jumped EVERY play) and instead of having the ball and opportunity to score a touchdown, the penalty forced the Vikings to kick a field goal.

If every player plays to the level of Kirk COusins you would ahve a very good football team.

That was the #2 ranked offense that year. Sometimes your high dollar QB needs to just go out there and win. Especially when the defense is shutting the other offense down to 0 points in the 4th quarter. That's something Cousins can't do. Ever. Cousins doesn't win shootouts ever. Therefor is not a good QB.

As far as the Giants go, Cousins had three drives at the end of that game against a bad Giants defense and could only muster 3 points. Both teams had bad defenses. But you know what? Daniel Jones and his offense scored 31. Why couldn't the elite QB, Kirk Cousins score 31 against a bad defense? Because Cousins is a born loser.

If every player plays to the level of Kirk Cousins we don't make the playoffs often and we don't win playoff games. That's the kind of QB Cousins is. 36 years old, 1 playoff win. That's who Cousins is.