2024 Vikings Mock Simulator II

[mlhouse]

I did another sim on this site: https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft

I think this simulator is pretty good. Realistic trades although the simulator prefers to use future 2025 picks too much.

Here was my Vikings mock:


Traded up to #7 with the Titans. It was costly. Traded #11 plus MN 2025 first and third for #7 plus pick #193 (7th) and TN 2025 4th round pick.

#7 Jayden Daniels. QB L.S.U. I still believe that Daniels will not get past #3 in this draft and that the Falcons would trade up before MN from #8, I pulled the trigger on this trade. The secret to winnng this trade, outside of not missing on the QB, is that the 2025 picks be more middle of the round or worse. Daniels is a Lamar Jackson type QB that can move the chains with his arm and legs.

#42 Byron Murphy DT Texas Really solid run defender with high motor. Pass rush has a lot of upside and lets say he could be a JOhn Randle-lite type of player.

Traded up to #93 with the Packers. Traded picks 104(4th) +161(top of 6th).

#93 Jonah Ellis Edge Utah 6-2 246 A less than prototypical edge player but one that could work really well in Flores 5-0 system.

Traded up from pick #127 plus #202.
#126 Junior Colson LB Michigan 6-3 247 A banger inside linebacker type that attacks the LOS. Might be a two down LB type but Pace-Colson could be a solid linebacker group going into the future.

#150 Brenden Rice WR USC 6-3 210. Speed size ratio off the charts. While WR might not seem to be a logical postional pick, the Vikings do not have a receiver with any size and they lack a deep threat. Rice is a track guy who can run a sub 4.4 40 and it is hard to argue with his pedigree.

Traded pick #156 to Detroit for picks #158 and #222
#158 DeWayne Carter DT Duke 6-3 305 The best available athlete at this spot. Solid DT that can hold his own in the interior and shoot gaps in pass rush. Still has upside to develop. Would have picked at 156 but moved down.

#188 JaQuan Sheppard CB Maryland 6-2 202 I have watched this guy a lot since he was Ivan Pace's teammate at Cincinnati before transferring to Maryland. Love his size and length, and he has a "feisty" demeanor to say the least. Like most college CBs, he needs to work on not holding/interfering in ways they can get away with in college but not NFL. Reminds me of a Xavier Rhodes type of CB.

#222 Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Washington 6-1 236 Freak athlete who could become a premier pass defense/3rd down type linebacker. I said this before, but I draft him based on one play in the national championship game were he covered Roman Wilson running an out pattern from his inside LB spot, breaking up the pass.

I like the balance of this draft from defensive persepctive, getting the interior and edge lineman. Of course, in this scenario the value of the draft depends on the QB at the top.

[Butch Bradford]

Not too shabby.

Not too shabby at all.

[witljon]

I did just 2 rounds

11. Jerzhan Newton DT
42. Michael Penix Jr. QB

[hategreenticemase]

I did one. As I have stated many times, I am not the draft wonk many of you are. So I'm not researching guys. Instead I just value drafted and maneuvered to accomplish some things and went with highest rated guy at position of need, factoring in best value (ie if drafting 104 but a guy is rated 88th by them).

Was offered 27 and 35 for 11. Took it, traded 35 down to 42.

27. MIN. J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan

42. MIN. T'Vondre Sweat. DT Texas

62. MIN Bralen Trice EDGE Washington

73 MIN Bucky Irving RB Oregon

79 MIN Josh Newton CB TCU

129. Drake Nugent OC Michigan

149. MIN Matt Goncalves
OT Pittsburgh

I really like cousins for two years and moving down to get McCarthy and redshirting him two years. I have seen many here saying he might be drafted it in the top 11, I would not have interest in that. Don't feel he is worth that. But 27, and gaining another high pick, ya, love taking that route for a 20 year old with pedigree and upside.

Everyone seems pretty high on Sweat and it's a MAJOR need..Liked Trice from what I saw. Bucky Irving is dynamic. And I really wanted a C.

[Small Hands]

Did a 4 rounder on this one.

1. Michael Penix QB
2. T’Vondre Sweat DT
4. Brandon Colman OG
4. Blake Corum RB

[Beef Supreme]

The general consensus is QB and DL ought to be our first two picks. And the draft might very well fall in such a way that it makes sense to do so.

[mlhouse]

I did one. As I have stated many times, I am not the draft wonk many of you are. So I'm not researching guys. Instead I just value drafted and maneuvered to accomplish some things and went with highest rated guy at position of need, factoring in best value (ie if drafting 104 but a guy is rated 88th by them).

Was offered 27 and 35 for 11. Took it, traded 35 down to 42.

27. MIN. J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan

42. MIN. T'Vondre Sweat. DT Texas

62. MIN Bralen Trice EDGE Washington

73 MIN Bucky Irving RB Oregon

79 MIN Josh Newton CB TCU

129. Drake Nugent OC Michigan

149. MIN Matt Goncalves
OT Pittsburgh

I really like cousins for two years and moving down to get McCarthy and redshirting him two years. I have seen many here saying he might be drafted it in the top 11, I would not have interest in that. Don't feel he is worth that. But 27, and gaining another high pick, ya, love taking that route for a 20 year old with pedigree and upside.

Everyone seems pretty high on Sweat and it's a MAJOR need..Liked Trice from what I saw. Bucky Irving is dynamic. And I really wanted a C.

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

[Car Ramrod]

Love the swing for a franchise QB.

I will say though, Murphy is likely a 1st rounder. DJ’s top rated DT.

I believe Colson will skyrocket up draft boards. Might get some 1st round looks but likely a 2nd rounder maybe 3rd. Dudes a baller.

[witljon]

The general consensus is QB and DL ought to be our first two picks. And the draft might very well fall in such a way that it makes sense to do so.

Is there such a thing as a shutdown corner in this draft?
If there is, every team could use one of them.

[mlhouse]

The general consensus is QB and DL ought to be our first two picks. And the draft might very well fall in such a way that it makes sense to do so.

Is there such a thing as a shutdown corner in this draft?
If there is, every team could use one of them.

CB is a bit of a down position in this draft.

[witljon]

The general consensus is QB and DL ought to be our first two picks. And the draft might very well fall in such a way that it makes sense to do so.

Is there such a thing as a shutdown corner in this draft?
If there is, every team could use one of them.

CB is a bit of a down position in this draft.

There’s no Stingley or Sauce in this draft?

[Beef Supreme]

Is there such a thing as a shutdown corner in this draft?
If there is, every team could use one of them.

CB is a bit of a down position in this draft.

There’s no Stingley or Sauce in this draft?

No. Kool-Aid is probably the top corner, but I’m not in love with him. Hopefully, someone takes him top-10. He could go that high, but I wouldn’t be the one to take him.

[hategreenticemase]

I did one. As I have stated many times, I am not the draft wonk many of you are. So I'm not researching guys. Instead I just value drafted and maneuvered to accomplish some things and went with highest rated guy at position of need, factoring in best value (ie if drafting 104 but a guy is rated 88th by them).

Was offered 27 and 35 for 11. Took it, traded 35 down to 42.

27. MIN. J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan

42. MIN. T'Vondre Sweat. DT Texas

62. MIN Bralen Trice EDGE Washington

73 MIN Bucky Irving RB Oregon

79 MIN Josh Newton CB TCU

129. Drake Nugent OC Michigan

149. MIN Matt Goncalves
OT Pittsburgh

I really like cousins for two years and moving down to get McCarthy and redshirting him two years. I have seen many here saying he might be drafted it in the top 11, I would not have interest in that. Don't feel he is worth that. But 27, and gaining another high pick, ya, love taking that route for a 20 year old with pedigree and upside.

Everyone seems pretty high on Sweat and it's a MAJOR need..Liked Trice from what I saw. Bucky Irving is dynamic. And I really wanted a C.

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool. But obviously that trade was utterly absurd. Wouldn't take close to that to go 11-7.

[witljon]

I did one. As I have stated many times, I am not the draft wonk many of you are. So I'm not researching guys. Instead I just value drafted and maneuvered to accomplish some things and went with highest rated guy at position of need, factoring in best value (ie if drafting 104 but a guy is rated 88th by them).

Was offered 27 and 35 for 11. Took it, traded 35 down to 42.

27. MIN. J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan

42. MIN. T'Vondre Sweat. DT Texas

62. MIN Bralen Trice EDGE Washington

73 MIN Bucky Irving RB Oregon

79 MIN Josh Newton CB TCU

129. Drake Nugent OC Michigan

149. MIN Matt Goncalves
OT Pittsburgh

I really like cousins for two years and moving down to get McCarthy and redshirting him two years. I have seen many here saying he might be drafted it in the top 11, I would not have interest in that. Don't feel he is worth that. But 27, and gaining another high pick, ya, love taking that route for a 20 year old with pedigree and upside.

Everyone seems pretty high on Sweat and it's a MAJOR need..Liked Trice from what I saw. Bucky Irving is dynamic. And I really wanted a C.

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool. But obviously that trade was utterly absurd. Wouldn't take close to that to go 11-7.

My unrealistic hope is Penix makes it to our pick in the 2nd round.

[mlhouse]

I did one. As I have stated many times, I am not the draft wonk many of you are. So I'm not researching guys. Instead I just value drafted and maneuvered to accomplish some things and went with highest rated guy at position of need, factoring in best value (ie if drafting 104 but a guy is rated 88th by them).

Was offered 27 and 35 for 11. Took it, traded 35 down to 42.

27. MIN. J.J. McCarthy QB Michigan

42. MIN. T'Vondre Sweat. DT Texas

62. MIN Bralen Trice EDGE Washington

73 MIN Bucky Irving RB Oregon

79 MIN Josh Newton CB TCU

129. Drake Nugent OC Michigan

149. MIN Matt Goncalves
OT Pittsburgh

I really like cousins for two years and moving down to get McCarthy and redshirting him two years. I have seen many here saying he might be drafted it in the top 11, I would not have interest in that. Don't feel he is worth that. But 27, and gaining another high pick, ya, love taking that route for a 20 year old with pedigree and upside.

Everyone seems pretty high on Sweat and it's a MAJOR need..Liked Trice from what I saw. Bucky Irving is dynamic. And I really wanted a C.

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool.

The point is it is doubtful you can draft McCarthy at 27. Penix maybe. I do not think McCarthy gets past #8 in this draft.

In my scenario, I do not think Daniels gets past #3 in the 2024 draft. The Lamar Jackson comp is too real for him to slide past that spot.

Of course, in just about any NFL draft there are teams that take some form of wild card. The Raiders in the past were excellent for that. But for a QB needing franchise like several of the teams in the top 10, are there any players outside of Marvin Harrison Jr that you think would be THE difference maker? DO you think that New England will be better off sitting at #3 with Mac Jones as their QB taking TE Brock Bowers?

And while I think there are some decent defensive players in the draft, none of them are high end. I have seen mocks of the Vikings selecting JerZahn Newton at 11. Good player. But he isn't going ot change the world as much as a potential QB.

In the top 10 you have Washington, New England, and Atlanta that desperately need a QB. There are also several wild card teams in drafting a QB like Chicago (stay with Justin Fields), Tennessee (give another year to Levis), New York Football Giants (good god why did we extend Daniel Jones for $160 million with $81 million guaranteed at signing), and the New York Jets ($75 million guaranteed for 4 plays).

Obviously, when the draft commences most of these wild card questions will be answered. For Chicago it is what trade value does the #1 pick have? For Tennessee I think it would be if QB3 gets to them; if you can take one of the top 3 QBs you do it, but go OT if they are selected and ride Levis for at least the next season. For the Giants, I think its the same question; if you have a chacne at QB3 take him, otherwise take Nabers. The Jets might be more intersted in QB4 given that they can sit him behind Rodgers for a year if Aaron can make play 5.

[Beef Supreme]

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool.

The point is it is doubtful you can draft McCarthy at 27. Penix maybe. I do not think McCarthy gets past #8 in this draft.

In my scenario, I do not think Daniels gets past #3 in the 2024 draft. The Lamar Jackson comp is too real for him to slide past that spot.

Of course, in just about any NFL draft there are teams that take some form of wild card. The Raiders in the past were excellent for that. But for a QB needing franchise like several of the teams in the top 10, are there any players outside of Marvin Harrison Jr that you think would be THE difference maker? DO you think that New England will be better off sitting at #3 with Mac Jones as their QB taking TE Brock Bowers?

And while I think there are some decent defensive players in the draft, none of them are high end. I have seen mocks of the Vikings selecting JerZahn Newton at 11. Good player. But he isn't going ot change the world as much as a potential QB.

In the top 10 you have Washington, New England, and Atlanta that desperately need a QB. There are also several wild card teams in drafting a QB like Chicago (stay with Justin Fields), Tennessee (give another year to Levis), New York Football Giants (good god why did we extend Daniel Jones for $160 million with $81 million guaranteed at signing), and the New York Jets ($75 million guaranteed for 4 plays).

Obviously, when the draft commences most of these wild card questions will be answered. For Chicago it is what trade value does the #1 pick have? For Tennessee I think it would be if QB3 gets to them; if you can take one of the top 3 QBs you do it, but go OT if they are selected and ride Levis for at least the next season. For the Giants, I think its the same question; if you have a chacne at QB3 take him, otherwise take Nabers. The Jets might be more intersted in QB4 given that they can sit him behind Rodgers for a year if Aaron can make play 5.

Seeing Aaron Rodgers and watch his team again draft a first-round QB would be absolutely hilarious.

[hategreenticemase]

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool.

The point is it is doubtful you can draft McCarthy at 27. Penix maybe. I do not think McCarthy gets past #8 in this draft.

In my scenario, I do not think Daniels gets past #3 in the 2024 draft. The Lamar Jackson comp is too real for him to slide past that spot.

Of course, in just about any NFL draft there are teams that take some form of wild card. The Raiders in the past were excellent for that. But for a QB needing franchise like several of the teams in the top 10, are there any players outside of Marvin Harrison Jr that you think would be THE difference maker? DO you think that New England will be better off sitting at #3 with Mac Jones as their QB taking TE Brock Bowers?

And while I think there are some decent defensive players in the draft, none of them are high end. I have seen mocks of the Vikings selecting JerZahn Newton at 11. Good player. But he isn't going ot change the world as much as a potential QB.

In the top 10 you have Washington, New England, and Atlanta that desperately need a QB. There are also several wild card teams in drafting a QB like Chicago (stay with Justin Fields), Tennessee (give another year to Levis), New York Football Giants (good god why did we extend Daniel Jones for $160 million with $81 million guaranteed at signing), and the New York Jets ($75 million guaranteed for 4 plays).

Obviously, when the draft commences most of these wild card questions will be answered. For Chicago it is what trade value does the #1 pick have? For Tennessee I think it would be if QB3 gets to them; if you can take one of the top 3 QBs you do it, but go OT if they are selected and ride Levis for at least the next season. For the Giants, I think its the same question; if you have a chacne at QB3 take him, otherwise take Nabers. The Jets might be more intersted in QB4 given that they can sit him behind Rodgers for a year if Aaron can make play 5.

I'd be surprised if Daniels dropped past 3, totally agree. While you might be right on McCarthy, that would stun me. Don't see that happening but I have been wrong before. He ain't worth that imo.

[hategreenticemase]

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool. But obviously that trade was utterly absurd. Wouldn't take close to that to go 11-7.

My unrealistic hope is Penix makes it to our pick in the 2nd round.

I could like that as well. I just love the thought of seasoning a 20 year old high intangibles kid behind cousins for two seasons and still having 3 years rook scale.

[mlhouse]

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool.
[
I'd be surprised if Daniels dropped past 3, totally agree. While you might be right on McCarthy, that would stun me. Don't see that happening but I have been wrong before. He ain't worth that imo.

I think in the modern NFL draft with its QB positional draft premium, JJ McCarthy is well worth a top 10 pick. Mac Jones was the 15th overall. McCarthy as a prospect is >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mac Jones. Zack Wilson was a 2nd overall pick and McCarthy is > Wilson, as was Trey Lance as the 3rd overall pick in which a very astute team traded three first round picks to trade up for. McCarthy >>>> Trey Lance.

(The >>> are relative rankings!).

I would consider Penix in the 2nd round, but probably pass on him. Again, even before the Michigan game I made note of his signfiicant throwing mechanic issues. You saw how this made his life very difficult in the National Championship game. Washington has 3 ELITE wide receivers and actually (they did not play well in NATTY) a very good offensive line. And the National Championship game is played with college hash marks, meaning the wide side of the field is wide open. Yet Michigan smothered them and the Michigan Wolverine defense isn't even close to even the worse defense in the NFL and he probably will not start with three elite receivers and the narrower hash marks in the NFL makes it much harder to pass.

I compared him to Philip Rivers because of his low arm angle throwing motion. Rivers was an incredible NFL QB but I think he had significantly better mobility, especially pocket mobility, than Penix. That allowed him to create the throwing lanes for his less than orthodox throwing motion. Penix does not have that mobility.

If I draft Penix I would be doing it with the intent of completely destroying his current mechanics and teaching him from scratch, almost like a golf coach with a talented but unorthodox golfer. The intitial results are going to be horrifying to watch and not everyone can do it.

[witljon]

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool.
[
I'd be surprised if Daniels dropped past 3, totally agree. While you might be right on McCarthy, that would stun me. Don't see that happening but I have been wrong before. He ain't worth that imo.

I think in the modern NFL draft with its QB positional draft premium, JJ McCarthy is well worth a top 10 pick. Mac Jones was the 15th overall. McCarthy as a prospect is >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mac Jones. Zack Wilson was a 2nd overall pick and McCarthy is > Wilson, as was Trey Lance as the 3rd overall pick in which a very astute team traded three first round picks to trade up for. McCarthy >>>> Trey Lance.

(The >>> are relative rankings!).

I would consider Penix in the 2nd round, but probably pass on him. Again, even before the Michigan game I made note of his signfiicant throwing mechanic issues. You saw how this made his life very difficult in the National Championship game. Washington has 3 ELITE wide receivers and actually (they did not play well in NATTY) a very good offensive line. And the National Championship game is played with college hash marks, meaning the wide side of the field is wide open. Yet Michigan smothered them and the Michigan Wolverine defense isn't even close to even the worse defense in the NFL and he probably will not start with three elite receivers and the narrower hash marks in the NFL makes it much harder to pass.

I compared him to Philip Rivers because of his low arm angle throwing motion. Rivers was an incredible NFL QB but I think he had significantly better mobility, especially pocket mobility, than Penix. That allowed him to create the throwing lanes for his less than orthodox throwing motion. Penix does not have that mobility.

If I draft Penix I would be doing it with the intent of completely destroying his current mechanics and teaching him from scratch, almost like a golf coach with a talented but unorthodox golfer. The intitial results are going to be horrifying to watch and not everyone can do it.

Penix has made so many more great deep passes than McCarthy.

[Sarge]

Best available Clemson corner with an injury history!

LESSPLAY

[mlhouse]

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool.
[
I'd be surprised if Daniels dropped past 3, totally agree. While you might be right on McCarthy, that would stun me. Don't see that happening but I have been wrong before. He ain't worth that imo.

I think in the modern NFL draft with its QB positional draft premium, JJ McCarthy is well worth a top 10 pick. Mac Jones was the 15th overall. McCarthy as a prospect is >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mac Jones. Zack Wilson was a 2nd overall pick and McCarthy is > Wilson, as was Trey Lance as the 3rd overall pick in which a very astute team traded three first round picks to trade up for. McCarthy >>>> Trey Lance.

(The >>> are relative rankings!).

I would consider Penix in the 2nd round, but probably pass on him. Again, even before the Michigan game I made note of his signfiicant throwing mechanic issues. You saw how this made his life very difficult in the National Championship game. Washington has 3 ELITE wide receivers and actually (they did not play well in NATTY) a very good offensive line. And the National Championship game is played with college hash marks, meaning the wide side of the field is wide open. Yet Michigan smothered them and the Michigan Wolverine defense isn't even close to even the worse defense in the NFL and he probably will not start with three elite receivers and the narrower hash marks in the NFL makes it much harder to pass.

I compared him to Philip Rivers because of his low arm angle throwing motion. Rivers was an incredible NFL QB but I think he had significantly better mobility, especially pocket mobility, than Penix. That allowed him to create the throwing lanes for his less than orthodox throwing motion. Penix does not have that mobility.

If I draft Penix I would be doing it with the intent of completely destroying his current mechanics and teaching him from scratch, almost like a golf coach with a talented but unorthodox golfer. The intitial results are going to be horrifying to watch and not everyone can do it.

Penix has made so many more great deep passes than McCarthy.

Penix played against lesser competiton out West, had not one, not 2, but 3 elite wide receivers to throw to, and his offensive line in Pac12 play was dominant. Plus Penix is in his 6th year of college football. He was not as successful in his first 4 years playing at Indiana vs. Big Ten competition. As a sophomore and junior starter for the Hoosiers, Penix completed under60% of his passes.

Competiotn levels matter. TO me scouting college players is pretty simple: you watch the film of the player against their BEST competition. Penix, with all of his unorthodox delivery, can get the ball to his receivers against mid-level competiton. But against Michigan you could see his struggles: because of his arm angle it was very difficult for him to get the ball out and because of his limited mobility he could not escape the pressure. And Michigans defense is much worse than the worst NFL defense.

As I said, I can see drafting Penix and then completely destroying his throwing mechanics and starting from scratch like a golf coach changing a good golfers swing. Sometimes it works. But Im not going to use a top pick to do that and while I have comped Penix to Philip Rivers I don't think he will have as much success in the NFL with those mechanics as Rivers.

[Oriole81]

Bored during a Zoom call so ran a mock and I really like.

11) QB JJ McCarthy (MI)
42) IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson (OR)
108) DT Braden Fiske (Fl St)
129) RB Blake Corum (MI)
155) LB Curtis Jacobs (Penn St)
165) CB Jaylin Simpson (Auburn)
178) RB/WR Dylan Laube (New Hampshire)
227) DT Gabe Hall (Baylor)

[mlhouse]

Bored during a Zoom call so ran a mock and I really like.

11) QB JJ McCarthy (MI)
42) IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson (OR)
108) DT Braden Fiske (Fl St)
129) RB Blake Corum (MI)
155) LB Curtis Jacobs (Penn St)
165) CB Jaylin Simpson (Auburn)
178) RB/WR Dylan Laube (New Hampshire)
227) DT Gabe Hall (Baylor)

One guy I have a hard time believing will be available that late is Blake Corum. I see him as a lower middle class Christian McCaffery and just can't see him lasting to the 4th round.

I know Fiske and Hall both had good senior bowl performances. And Powers-Johnson's Sr Bowl was perhaps good enough to get him into the first round.

Good solid picks.

[Oriole81]

Bored during a Zoom call so ran a mock and I really like.

11) QB JJ McCarthy (MI)
42) IOL Jackson Powers-Johnson (OR)
108) DT Braden Fiske (Fl St)
129) RB Blake Corum (MI)
155) LB Curtis Jacobs (Penn St)
165) CB Jaylin Simpson (Auburn)
178) RB/WR Dylan Laube (New Hampshire)
227) DT Gabe Hall (Baylor)

One guy I have a hard time believing will be available that late is Blake Corum. I see him as a lower middle class Christian McCaffery and just can't see him lasting to the 4th round.

I know Fiske and Hall both had good senior bowl performances. And Powers-Johnson's Sr Bowl was perhaps good enough to get him into the first round.

Good solid picks.

Corum was ranked in the top 100 and was one of the top 5 available when I was on the clock way back at 108, but still fell all the way down to 129.
I agree that he probably won't, but you never know.

If I had to provide a rationale, its a weak overall RB class so the entire position could get kicked down, plus some may think he's not as "dynamic" as other rotational RBs, so they may prefer someone else over him.
I went back through the draft as well just to see if that's the case and it does appear so, as both Emani Bailey and Jaylen Wright went ahead of him even though Corum was ranked higher.

I don't think it's that unbelievable though.

[salamander]

Love these. I rejected all trades out of mock draft ridiculousness principle.
Ran the first round a few times because Dallas Turner kept falling to me and I didn't think that would happen. Ended up just taking him.

1st Round: Dallas Turner (EDGE)

Ouch. Every QB got taken that I'd even want in the 2nd so I really got screwed a bit here. Looks like 2024 is going to be another building year for me. I'll be looking to draft QB next year and rolling with Hall. Maybe he surprises the organization.

2nd Round: T'Vondre Sweat (NT)

Had to take one of my favorite RB's in college football. Violence is his middle name. Was surprised he was there.

4th round: Jaylen "Violence" Wright (RB)

4th round: Cam Hart (CB)

5th Round: Javion Cohen (OG)

5th Round: Tyrice Knight (LB)

5th Round: Aaron Casey (LB)

7th Round: Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (CB)

-Felt like I went defense heavy. Tried to shore up our defense against the run and a potentially elite pass rusher. Double dipped late on LB & CB. Hopefully one of those guys pan out. Think I got a good RB in the 4th to tag team with Chandler. Late round OG, that is huge and has a real chance to be a starter and a dominant rush blocker a couple years down the road. I only know him because it's the U.

[TheLokNesMonster]

It would be ideal to trade down to get a franchise QB. Two factors mitigate that.

First, I'm not convinced that McCarthy's draft value (ranked 27 or higher) is the same as his draft position i.e. where he will go in the draft. I think there is a strong probability that the VIkings would have to trade UP from #11 to select McCarthy. McCarthy is a significantly better QB prospect than Kenny Pickett (20) and Mac Jones (15).

Second, QBs drafted late in the first round do not have a solid history of success. Some hit, some don't. And the reason for this is that often you are looking at QB4 or less in the draft. IT is a tough value pick to take QB5 in the first round.

If you compare my draft to yours, and granted the major trade up surrendered lots of future draft assets, I walk out with a much better QB prospect in Daniels and better line prospects in Murphy. I like Trice, but I don't think Ellis is that far behind.

No doubt the million dollar question is how far does a guy like McCarthy or Penix fall? There's just no way I'm taking either one of them in the top 15 or 20 of this draft. So yeah my scenario is ideal, but if it's realistic or not remains to be seen.

I liked your draft by the way. Daniels would be cool.

The point is it is doubtful you can draft McCarthy at 27. Penix maybe. I do not think McCarthy gets past #8 in this draft.

In my scenario, I do not think Daniels gets past #3 in the 2024 draft. The Lamar Jackson comp is too real for him to slide past that spot.

Of course, in just about any NFL draft there are teams that take some form of wild card. The Raiders in the past were excellent for that. But for a QB needing franchise like several of the teams in the top 10, are there any players outside of Marvin Harrison Jr that you think would be THE difference maker? DO you think that New England will be better off sitting at #3 with Mac Jones as their QB taking TE Brock Bowers?

And while I think there are some decent defensive players in the draft, none of them are high end. I have seen mocks of the Vikings selecting JerZahn Newton at 11. Good player. But he isn't going ot change the world as much as a potential QB.

In the top 10 you have Washington, New England, and Atlanta that desperately need a QB. There are also several wild card teams in drafting a QB like Chicago (stay with Justin Fields), Tennessee (give another year to Levis), New York Football Giants (good god why did we extend Daniel Jones for $160 million with $81 million guaranteed at signing), and the New York Jets ($75 million guaranteed for 4 plays).

Obviously, when the draft commences most of these wild card questions will be answered. For Chicago it is what trade value does the #1 pick have? For Tennessee I think it would be if QB3 gets to them; if you can take one of the top 3 QBs you do it, but go OT if they are selected and ride Levis for at least the next season. For the Giants, I think its the same question; if you have a chacne at QB3 take him, otherwise take Nabers. The Jets might be more intersted in QB4 given that they can sit him behind Rodgers for a year if Aaron can make play 5.

No “high end” D guys like Bosa or Warner or Sauce?

[Señor Trumpo]

11. Tory Taylor P Iowa.
/Thread

[Oriole81]

Love these. I rejected all trades out of mock draft ridiculousness principle.
Ran the first round a few times because Dallas Turner kept falling to me and I didn't think that would happen. Ended up just taking him.

1st Round: Dallas Turner (EDGE)

Ouch. Every QB got taken that I'd even want in the 2nd so I really got screwed a bit here. Looks like 2024 is going to be another building year for me. I'll be looking to draft QB next year and rolling with Hall. Maybe he surprises the organization.

2nd Round: T'Vondre Sweat (NT)

Had to take one of my favorite RB's in college football. Violence is his middle name. Was surprised he was there.

4th round: Jaylen "Violence" Wright (RB)

4th round: Cam Hart (CB)

5th Round: Javion Cohen (OG)

5th Round: Tyrice Knight (LB)

5th Round: Aaron Casey (LB)

7th Round: Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (CB)

-Felt like I went defense heavy. Tried to shore up our defense against the run and a potentially elite pass rusher. Double dipped late on LB & CB. Hopefully one of those guys pan out. Think I got a good RB in the 4th to tag team with Chandler. Late round OG, that is huge and has a real chance to be a starter and a dominant rush blocker a couple years down the road. I only know him because it's the U.

If you continue to go all in in free agency (re-sign Cousins, Danielle, another top flight defensive player) then this would be a great draft.
Would need to have one more young offensive skill player (Thomas, Nailor, Jackson, Muse) step up though to supplement the offense.

[Da Gas Man's Ghost]

44.
NFL-team-logo
J.J. McCarthy
QB Michigan

117.
NFL-team-logo
Payton Wilson
LB NC State

123.
NFL-team-logo
Tyler Davis
DT Clemson

135.
NFL-team-logo
Jordan Jefferson
DT LSU

150.
NFL-team-logo
Justin Eboigbe
DT Alabama

159.
NFL-team-logo
Jaylon Carlies
S Missouri

181.
NFL-team-logo
M.J. Devonshire
CB Pittsburgh

182.
NFL-team-logo
Quinton Newsome
CB Nebraska

183.
NFL-team-logo
Mohamed Kamara
EDGE Colorado State

193.
NFL-team-logo
Blake Watson
RB Memphis

212.
NFL-team-logo
Gabe Hall
DT Baylor

218.
NFL-team-logo
Tanner McLachlan
TE Arizona

224.
NFL-team-logo
Omar Speights
LB LSU

228.
NFL-team-logo
Maema Njongmeta
LB Wisconsin

230.
NFL-team-logo
Andru Phillips
CB Kentucky

239.
NFL-team-logo
Ovie Oghoufo
EDGE LSU

2025 CHI 1st
2025 CAR 2nd
2025 DEN 2nd
2025 BUF 3rd
2025 HOU 3rd
2025 NE 3rd
2025 PHI 3rd



Rick would have been so proud of me.