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Butler requests trade -- Butler traded to Philly 11/10 update

A place to discuss the MN Timberwolves
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JigglyPuff
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Butler staying with MN for now 10/14 update

Post by JigglyPuff »

HeHateMe wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:24 pm
Philo Beddoe wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:18 pm 4 picks in 15-30 range is a shit offer
2019, 2021, 2023, 2025.... last one could be gold!
The 23 & 25 1st rounders may be higher picks than the first two and by then Wigs and Kat will be in their 30's.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

JRich and Jimmy walks options are better than 4 garbage picks and ol’ EJ, whom I’ve always been a big fan of.
jodaman01
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by jodaman01 »

j2j wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:57 pm Having a hard time getting excited about just the 4 picks. The first 2 will be late firsts. No guarantee the other 2 aren't late firsts as well.
Butler was the 30th overall pick in his draft.....is that considered a late first?

;)
Silversword
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by Silversword »

D_H wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:10 am
j2j wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:00 am
D_H wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:38 pm

Simply not true and just a stupid statement

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.busine ... -10-2013-6
"Over the last 60 years we found 19 guys worth drafting outside the top 10..."

;-)
It's a lot better than somebody walking for nothing in return :beer:

He's leaving get something for him!!
For those of you who believe 4 Houston 1st round picks are great value, here's an NFL analogy for you:
Houston is offering the equivalent of:
2019: a 7th round pick
2021: a probable 7th round pick
2023: Somewhere between a 1st round pick and 7th round pick, depending on how good Houston's team is
2025: Somewhere between a 1st round pick and 7th round pick, depending on how good Houston's team is

From these picks, we can expect to get 3 players who ultimately become busts and one player who's a serviceable role player - spread out over the next seven years. Of course, there's a 5% chance that one of those 7th round picks becomes a serviceable role player and there's that 1 in a million roll-the-dice, lotto-winning chance that one of these players becomes elite... somewhere down the line after KAT and Wiggy have passed their primes or moved to another team. And there's the possibility that we can package these picks in trades to move up in future drafts, but be realistic - if you package a late first round NBA pick with something else, you're not moving up more than one or two spots in the draft. This Houston offer isn't that good unless they're including quality players too.
Last edited by Silversword on Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
larryhagmansliver
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by larryhagmansliver »

I think the most interesting question is what we could we get from a third party for 4 unprotected 1st rounders.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:18 am I think the most interesting question is what we could we get from a third party for 4 unprotected 1st rounders.
From Houston tho?

Over the past 10 seasons their worst win percentage was .515 and they were usually significantly better than that.

Houston is the 4th biggest NBA city and a warm climate.

They’re not having problems attracting and retaining marquee players.

You’d be trading $1.00 of Butler for mystery coins that likely add up to about 35 cents.

You won’t get much trading 35 cents.

Rockets just aren’t a good trade partner for us.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
larryhagmansliver
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by larryhagmansliver »

Think, read your last two post again.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:48 am Think, read your last two post again.
JRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.

Book it and get back to me in 7 years.

19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.

None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.

A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
larryhagmansliver
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by larryhagmansliver »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 am
larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:48 am Think, read your last two post again.
JRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.

Book it and get back to me in 7 years.

19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.

None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.

A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
Well firstly, the post of mine you quoted was suggesting we look for a third party, as in not the Wolves, that would be interested in the package and see what we could get in return. Nothing about the the Wolves using the picks. So a pointless reply on your part.

And secondly, not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with your assessment, you spout an awful lot of contradictory waffle :lol:
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 am Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
And as for JRich is he a sorry centrepiece for a top 15 player, contract expiring or not. Below average ts%, PER and WS/48. Horrendous, ghastly ft rate. On the plus side, he a good defender and can shoot from deep. That has value. But he's not going to suddenly turn into an all star if given the opportunity. He's getting that opportunity right now. Don't get me wrong I'd like to have him on the team but If he is your second best player you are not going anywhere but the late lottery.
Last edited by larryhagmansliver on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
Corre Ricky Corre
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by Corre Ricky Corre »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 am
larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:48 am Think, read your last two post again.
JRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.

Book it and get back to me in 7 years.

19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.

None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.

A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:06 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 am
larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:48 am Think, read your last two post again.
JRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.

Book it and get back to me in 7 years.

19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.

None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.

A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
Well firstly, the post of mine you quoted was suggesting we look for a third party, as in not the Wolves, that would be interested in the package and see what we could get in return. Nothing about the the Wolves using the picks. So a pointless reply on your part.

And secondly, not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with your assessment, you spout an awful lot of contradictory waffle :lol:
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 am Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
The draft picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.

Winslow >>> value than Waiters. That’s all that matters in with regard to those two.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

Corre Ricky Corre wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:08 am Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.
What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Corre Ricky Corre
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by Corre Ricky Corre »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:17 am
Corre Ricky Corre wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:08 am Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.
What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Sorry meant to say the Heat's hand.
larryhagmansliver
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by larryhagmansliver »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:16 am
larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:06 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 am

JRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.

Book it and get back to me in 7 years.

19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.

None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.

A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
Well firstly, the post of mine you quoted was suggesting we look for a third party, as in not the Wolves, that would be interested in the package and see what we could get in return. Nothing about the the Wolves using the picks. So a pointless reply on your part.

And secondly, not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with your assessment, you spout an awful lot of contradictory waffle :lol:
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 am Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
The draft picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.
That's a very matter of fact way of presenting compete supposition. Well done you.
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:16 am Winslow >>> value than Waiters. That’s all that matters in with regard to those two.
Yeah a punch on the arm is better than a boot in the bollox, but I'd prefer to skip them both thanks.
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j2j
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by j2j »

jodaman01 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:15 am
j2j wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:57 pm Having a hard time getting excited about just the 4 picks. The first 2 will be late firsts. No guarantee the other 2 aren't late firsts as well.
Butler was the 30th overall pick in his draft.....is that considered a late first?

;)
So was JR Giddens.
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Oriole81
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by Oriole81 »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:17 am
Corre Ricky Corre wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:08 am Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.
What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:17 am
Corre Ricky Corre wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:08 am Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.
What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
There definitely is some irony there.

But then you look at the statistics and project what those four picks would get us (either kept or traded).

Butler is the only low pick star. Even Giannis went #15 Which is still higher than any Rockets pick over the last decade. Then you look at other #15 picks. Not good.
Last edited by thinktank on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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j2j
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by j2j »

Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:17 am
Corre Ricky Corre wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:08 am Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.
What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
And a lot of trash has been taken at 25.

It's banking a lot of faith on Thibs' ability to draft...

Kris Dunn
Justin Patton
Josh Okogie

So far we're hopeful on one, another is looking like damaged good, and the other is a bum that can't play.
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larryhagmansliver
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by larryhagmansliver »

Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:17 am
Corre Ricky Corre wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:08 am Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.
What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
Richardson was #40.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:33 am
Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:17 am

What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
Richardson was #40.
You can cherry pick examples but it would amount to trading Butler for very low odds of a JRich or better.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:22 amYeah a punch on the arm is better than a boot in the bollox, but I'd prefer to skip them both thanks.
Winslow would be more like a shot in the arm, but I respect your opinion.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by Oriole81 »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:33 am
Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:17 am

What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
There definitely is some irony there.

But then you look at the statistics and project what those four picks would get us (either kept or traded).

Butler is the only low pick star. Even Giannis went #13 or whatever. Which is still higher than any Rockets pick over the last decade.
My comment was partially in jest so obviously I'm aware that the stats support the other side.
However, I don't think the right angle to look at here is our likelihood of getting a star. Instead it should be our likelihood of getting good role players to play along what we already have, which is more doable. If you make that the barometer, it makes the stats much more palatable.
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somuchyummy
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by somuchyummy »

yeah, i know you have to draft correctly - but those saying there aren't any good players past the lottery, i think the evidence is contrary to that. in this year's draft alone: divincenzo - zhaire smith - lonnie walker - huerter - our own okogie - grayson allen - anfernee simons - mo wagner - landry shamet - robert williams. all these guys still have plenty to prove, but all are at least pretty intriguing with their potential - and yeah, i'd rather have any of these wings on our squad over cj williams - and any of the bigs over luol deng. these are players who would make our roster and hopefully become rotational role players, if not more.

past four drafts before that: john collins - harry giles - jarrett allen - og anunoby - kyle kuzma - josh hart - caris levert - deandre bembry - pascal siakam - dejonte murray - ante zizic - kelly oubre - terry rozier - jerian grant - delon wright - bobby portis - rondae hollis jefferson - larry nance jr. - jusuf nurkic - gary harris - rodney hood - clint capela and kyle anderson. don't tell me most of these guys wouldn't improve our squad.

and that's not even taking into account packaging a pick or two to move up in the draft, or to pair with a vet in a trade for another vet. butler for a vet and four firsts should remain an option. if there's a better one, great - but it would be stupid to dismiss it offhand.
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thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:41 amMy comment was partially in jest so obviously I'm aware that the stats support the other side.
However, I don't think the right angle to look at here is our likelihood of getting a star. Instead it should be our likelihood of getting good role players to play along what we already have, which is more doable. If you make that the barometer, it makes the stats much more palatable.
True.

But let’s get into it, and as others have said:

1. The picks being spread out over 7 years isn’t good.

2. When will Houston decline? Likely not for the next three years, so half of those picks are 25 to 30 range. That’s not good either.

So you’re really getting Gordon and two future protected (how much we don’t know) picks that probably aren’t good either.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by larryhagmansliver »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:35 am
larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:33 am
Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 am

Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
Richardson was #40.
You can cherry pick examples but it would amount to trading Butler for very low odds of a JRich or better.
You're replying to statements that haven't been made?

Also you're aware that the Wolves aren't obligated to keep all the picks right? The value in this trade is not waiting out to see what we get with the four picks. it's the flexibility they give you. For instance, what do our pick, the Houston 2019 & 2021 get you come June next year? Your too one dimensional in your approach to this.
thinktank
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:48 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:35 am
larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:33 am

Richardson was #40.
You can cherry pick examples but it would amount to trading Butler for very low odds of a JRich or better.
You're replying to statements that haven't been made?

Also you're aware that the Wolves aren't obligated to keep all the picks right? The value in this trade is not waiting out to see what we get with the four picks. it's the flexibility they give you. For instance, what do our pick, the Houston 2019 & 2021 get you come June next year? Your too one dimensional in your approach to this.
I’m comparing those picks to the value of JRich now. You just brought up Richardson.

The picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.

It’s not like magically those picks become valuable when you offer them to another team.

Think of it this way:

Those picks are so bad that Houston has to offer the maximum amount of picks allowable under the CBA to even have a chance at creating enough value to obtain Butler. Yuck!
Last edited by thinktank on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
Oriole81
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by Oriole81 »

thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:50 am
larryhagmansliver wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:48 am
thinktank wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:35 am

You can cherry pick examples but it would amount to trading Butler for very low odds of a JRich or better.
You're replying to statements that haven't been made?

Also you're aware that the Wolves aren't obligated to keep all the picks right? The value in this trade is not waiting out to see what we get with the four picks. it's the flexibility they give you. For instance, what do our pick, the Houston 2019 & 2021 get you come June next year? Your too one dimensional in your approach to this.
I’m comparing those picks to the value of JRich now. You just brought up Richardson.

The picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.

It’s not like magically those picks become valuable when you offer them to another team.

Think of it this way:

Those picks are so bad that Houston has to offer the maximum amount of picks allowable under the CBA.
That's not why they're offering that, they're offering because they don't have anything from a player standpoint that we would want.
Miami, Philly, LAC or whoever else we talk to will always have better player for player options, so Hou has to make a substantial offer elsewhere in order to make up the difference.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update

Post by thinktank »

Oriole81 wrote: Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:57 am That's not why they're offering that, they're offering because they don't have anything from a player standpoint that we would want.
Miami, Philly, LAC or whoever else we talk to will always have better player for player options, so Hou has to make a substantial offer elsewhere in order to make up the difference.
I know but their picks are so bad that they have to offer the max amount allowable under the CBA.

The infrequency of that tactic (has it ever happened before?) should tell you something.
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