The 23 & 25 1st rounders may be higher picks than the first two and by then Wigs and Kat will be in their 30's.
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Butler requests trade -- Butler traded to Philly 11/10 update
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
JRich and Jimmy walks options are better than 4 garbage picks and ol’ EJ, whom I’ve always been a big fan of.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
For those of you who believe 4 Houston 1st round picks are great value, here's an NFL analogy for you:D_H wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:10 amIt's a lot better than somebody walking for nothing in returnj2j wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:00 am"Over the last 60 years we found 19 guys worth drafting outside the top 10..."D_H wrote: ↑Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:38 pm
Simply not true and just a stupid statement
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.busine ... -10-2013-6
He's leaving get something for him!!
Houston is offering the equivalent of:
2019: a 7th round pick
2021: a probable 7th round pick
2023: Somewhere between a 1st round pick and 7th round pick, depending on how good Houston's team is
2025: Somewhere between a 1st round pick and 7th round pick, depending on how good Houston's team is
From these picks, we can expect to get 3 players who ultimately become busts and one player who's a serviceable role player - spread out over the next seven years. Of course, there's a 5% chance that one of those 7th round picks becomes a serviceable role player and there's that 1 in a million roll-the-dice, lotto-winning chance that one of these players becomes elite... somewhere down the line after KAT and Wiggy have passed their primes or moved to another team. And there's the possibility that we can package these picks in trades to move up in future drafts, but be realistic - if you package a late first round NBA pick with something else, you're not moving up more than one or two spots in the draft. This Houston offer isn't that good unless they're including quality players too.
Last edited by Silversword on Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
I think the most interesting question is what we could we get from a third party for 4 unprotected 1st rounders.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
From Houston tho?larryhagmansliver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:18 am I think the most interesting question is what we could we get from a third party for 4 unprotected 1st rounders.
Over the past 10 seasons their worst win percentage was .515 and they were usually significantly better than that.
Houston is the 4th biggest NBA city and a warm climate.
They’re not having problems attracting and retaining marquee players.
You’d be trading $1.00 of Butler for mystery coins that likely add up to about 35 cents.
You won’t get much trading 35 cents.
Rockets just aren’t a good trade partner for us.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
Think, read your last two post again.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
JRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.
Book it and get back to me in 7 years.
19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.
None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.
A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
Well firstly, the post of mine you quoted was suggesting we look for a third party, as in not the Wolves, that would be interested in the package and see what we could get in return. Nothing about the the Wolves using the picks. So a pointless reply on your part.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 amJRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.
Book it and get back to me in 7 years.
19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.
None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.
A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
And secondly, not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with your assessment, you spout an awful lot of contradictory waffle
And as for JRich is he a sorry centrepiece for a top 15 player, contract expiring or not. Below average ts%, PER and WS/48. Horrendous, ghastly ft rate. On the plus side, he a good defender and can shoot from deep. That has value. But he's not going to suddenly turn into an all star if given the opportunity. He's getting that opportunity right now. Don't get me wrong I'd like to have him on the team but If he is your second best player you are not going anywhere but the late lottery.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 am Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
Last edited by larryhagmansliver on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
Let's hope this forces the Rockets hand.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 amJRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.
Book it and get back to me in 7 years.
19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.
None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.
A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
The draft picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.larryhagmansliver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:06 amWell firstly, the post of mine you quoted was suggesting we look for a third party, as in not the Wolves, that would be interested in the package and see what we could get in return. Nothing about the the Wolves using the picks. So a pointless reply on your part.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 amJRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.
Book it and get back to me in 7 years.
19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.
None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.
A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
And secondly, not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with your assessment, you spout an awful lot of contradictory waffle
thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 am Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
Winslow >>> value than Waiters. That’s all that matters in with regard to those two.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
What else can they offer? They probably won’t offer Capela. I think the four picks and Gordon is their max offer.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
That's a very matter of fact way of presenting compete supposition. Well done you.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:16 amThe draft picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.larryhagmansliver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:06 amWell firstly, the post of mine you quoted was suggesting we look for a third party, as in not the Wolves, that would be interested in the package and see what we could get in return. Nothing about the the Wolves using the picks. So a pointless reply on your part.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:52 am
JRich is already significantly better than whatever those four draft picks will become.
Book it and get back to me in 7 years.
19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists on 40% from deep and 90% at the line.
None of those four draft picks are likely to blossom like that.
A bird in the hand...(especially when we need it) + another 3&D bird in the hand in Winslow...
And secondly, not saying I necessarily agree or disagree with your assessment, you spout an awful lot of contradictory waffle
thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:38 am Rodney McGruder, Riley’s pet player, is an intriguing X-factor/storyline in the Butler saga. Perhaps his stellar play enables us to get both JRich and Winslow instead of JRich and Waiters. It appears that McGruder is better than Winslow, and at 13M/year, Winslow ain’t necessarily that much of a good value.
Yeah a punch on the arm is better than a boot in the bollox, but I'd prefer to skip them both thanks.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
So was JR Giddens.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
Ironic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
There definitely is some irony there.Oriole81 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 amIronic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
But then you look at the statistics and project what those four picks would get us (either kept or traded).
Butler is the only low pick star. Even Giannis went #15 Which is still higher than any Rockets pick over the last decade. Then you look at other #15 picks. Not good.
Last edited by thinktank on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
And a lot of trash has been taken at 25.Oriole81 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 amIronic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
It's banking a lot of faith on Thibs' ability to draft...
Kris Dunn
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Josh Okogie
So far we're hopeful on one, another is looking like damaged good, and the other is a bum that can't play.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
Richardson was #40.Oriole81 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:28 amIronic that people are complaining that the Rockets late first round picks have little value, yet the one player that we all covet was taken by the Rockets at pick #25.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
You can cherry pick examples but it would amount to trading Butler for very low odds of a JRich or better.larryhagmansliver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:33 amRichardson was #40.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
Winslow would be more like a shot in the arm, but I respect your opinion.larryhagmansliver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:22 amYeah a punch on the arm is better than a boot in the bollox, but I'd prefer to skip them both thanks.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
My comment was partially in jest so obviously I'm aware that the stats support the other side.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:33 amThere definitely is some irony there.
But then you look at the statistics and project what those four picks would get us (either kept or traded).
Butler is the only low pick star. Even Giannis went #13 or whatever. Which is still higher than any Rockets pick over the last decade.
However, I don't think the right angle to look at here is our likelihood of getting a star. Instead it should be our likelihood of getting good role players to play along what we already have, which is more doable. If you make that the barometer, it makes the stats much more palatable.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
yeah, i know you have to draft correctly - but those saying there aren't any good players past the lottery, i think the evidence is contrary to that. in this year's draft alone: divincenzo - zhaire smith - lonnie walker - huerter - our own okogie - grayson allen - anfernee simons - mo wagner - landry shamet - robert williams. all these guys still have plenty to prove, but all are at least pretty intriguing with their potential - and yeah, i'd rather have any of these wings on our squad over cj williams - and any of the bigs over luol deng. these are players who would make our roster and hopefully become rotational role players, if not more.
past four drafts before that: john collins - harry giles - jarrett allen - og anunoby - kyle kuzma - josh hart - caris levert - deandre bembry - pascal siakam - dejonte murray - ante zizic - kelly oubre - terry rozier - jerian grant - delon wright - bobby portis - rondae hollis jefferson - larry nance jr. - jusuf nurkic - gary harris - rodney hood - clint capela and kyle anderson. don't tell me most of these guys wouldn't improve our squad.
and that's not even taking into account packaging a pick or two to move up in the draft, or to pair with a vet in a trade for another vet. butler for a vet and four firsts should remain an option. if there's a better one, great - but it would be stupid to dismiss it offhand.
past four drafts before that: john collins - harry giles - jarrett allen - og anunoby - kyle kuzma - josh hart - caris levert - deandre bembry - pascal siakam - dejonte murray - ante zizic - kelly oubre - terry rozier - jerian grant - delon wright - bobby portis - rondae hollis jefferson - larry nance jr. - jusuf nurkic - gary harris - rodney hood - clint capela and kyle anderson. don't tell me most of these guys wouldn't improve our squad.
and that's not even taking into account packaging a pick or two to move up in the draft, or to pair with a vet in a trade for another vet. butler for a vet and four firsts should remain an option. if there's a better one, great - but it would be stupid to dismiss it offhand.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
True.Oriole81 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:41 amMy comment was partially in jest so obviously I'm aware that the stats support the other side.
However, I don't think the right angle to look at here is our likelihood of getting a star. Instead it should be our likelihood of getting good role players to play along what we already have, which is more doable. If you make that the barometer, it makes the stats much more palatable.
But let’s get into it, and as others have said:
1. The picks being spread out over 7 years isn’t good.
2. When will Houston decline? Likely not for the next three years, so half of those picks are 25 to 30 range. That’s not good either.
So you’re really getting Gordon and two future protected (how much we don’t know) picks that probably aren’t good either.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
You're replying to statements that haven't been made?thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:35 amYou can cherry pick examples but it would amount to trading Butler for very low odds of a JRich or better.
Also you're aware that the Wolves aren't obligated to keep all the picks right? The value in this trade is not waiting out to see what we get with the four picks. it's the flexibility they give you. For instance, what do our pick, the Houston 2019 & 2021 get you come June next year? Your too one dimensional in your approach to this.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
I’m comparing those picks to the value of JRich now. You just brought up Richardson.larryhagmansliver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:48 amYou're replying to statements that haven't been made?
Also you're aware that the Wolves aren't obligated to keep all the picks right? The value in this trade is not waiting out to see what we get with the four picks. it's the flexibility they give you. For instance, what do our pick, the Houston 2019 & 2021 get you come June next year? Your too one dimensional in your approach to this.
The picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.
It’s not like magically those picks become valuable when you offer them to another team.
Think of it this way:
Those picks are so bad that Houston has to offer the maximum amount of picks allowable under the CBA to even have a chance at creating enough value to obtain Butler. Yuck!
Last edited by thinktank on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
That's not why they're offering that, they're offering because they don't have anything from a player standpoint that we would want.thinktank wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:50 amI’m comparing those picks to the value of JRich now. You just brought up Richardson.larryhagmansliver wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:48 amYou're replying to statements that haven't been made?
Also you're aware that the Wolves aren't obligated to keep all the picks right? The value in this trade is not waiting out to see what we get with the four picks. it's the flexibility they give you. For instance, what do our pick, the Houston 2019 & 2021 get you come June next year? Your too one dimensional in your approach to this.
The picks have the same value to other teams as they do to us.
It’s not like magically those picks become valuable when you offer them to another team.
Think of it this way:
Those picks are so bad that Houston has to offer the maximum amount of picks allowable under the CBA.
Miami, Philly, LAC or whoever else we talk to will always have better player for player options, so Hou has to make a substantial offer elsewhere in order to make up the difference.
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Re: Butler requests trade -- Houston offering 4 first rounders 10/25 update
I know but their picks are so bad that they have to offer the max amount allowable under the CBA.Oriole81 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:57 am That's not why they're offering that, they're offering because they don't have anything from a player standpoint that we would want.
Miami, Philly, LAC or whoever else we talk to will always have better player for player options, so Hou has to make a substantial offer elsewhere in order to make up the difference.
The infrequency of that tactic (has it ever happened before?) should tell you something.