Latest Mock Penix to Minnesota!!!!!

[Small Hands]

Trade up for Maye of possible and if not, you sit back and use your 2 1sts.

I do believe Maye will be a Viking though with a NE trade. I believe the deal is already done as long as Maye is there at #3.

I would trade up for Daniels as well. If he is number three I will give up my two picks for him. People think that Penix will be there @ 23 is foolish

You take Penix at 11 in that case.
Don't try to get cute.

The GM that takes Penix in the 1st round will be fired in 2 years.

[William Munny]

You take Penix at 11 in that case.
Don't try to get cute.

You talk about value all the time, and you want to take a 2nd round guy at 11? That would be fn nauseating.

The ideal way to play that scenario out would be to have them equally happy with either Penix or Nix so that you can defer the choice until later and be content with whichever you end up with, but if they're out on Nix, then Penix is the last legit starting option in the draft. Considering there are multiple QB needy teams drafting between 12 and 22, I don't think there's another option but to take him at 11.

There won't be that big of a dropoff in the quality of defensive player for us at 11 vs 23. In the froob draft Murphy, Newton, McKinstry and Dejean were all available at 23, and any of them for the Vikes would have been a great pick.

I'm not saying this is my first choice. My ideal would be to move up to 4/5 for QB4 at an amount that doesn't cost us next year's 1st.

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[Oriole81]

I would trade up for Daniels as well. If he is number three I will give up my two picks for him. People think that Penix will be there @ 23 is foolish

You take Penix at 11 in that case.
Don't try to get cute.

The GM that takes Penix in the 1st round will be fired in 2 years.

They're welcome to trade up to 4/5 then if they think that. I did say in my follow up that moving up for QB4 was my #1 preference.

But regarding your point about Penix; why?
The guy throws a good ball, is accurate, has good pocket presence, and is a good leader.
If paired with guys like JJ, Addison, Hock, Darrisaw, O'Neill, you don't think he could at least be a competent starter for the duration of a rookie scale contract? Even Teddy adjacent?

But if KOC can't make it work with him, especially with the weapons he'll be afforded, then KOC probably deserves to be fired.
If I want to be a glass half empty guy, I could say that the guy seems oddly riggid for such a young guy, he hasn't figured out how to put together a running game, his team has periods of looking wildly undisciplined, and he hasn't developed a mid round offensive player since he has been here, whereas his former team has already developed three serious mid round offensive players in the 2 years that he has been gone.

If he can't make due with what he has been given, then he should be fired.

[Small Hands]

You take Penix at 11 in that case.
Don't try to get cute.

The GM that takes Penix in the 1st round will be fired in 2 years.

They're welcome to trade up to 4/5 then if they think that. I did say in my follow up that moving up for QB4 was my #1 preference.

But regarding your point about Penix; why?
The guy throws a good ball, is accurate, has good pocket presence, and is a good leader.
If paired with guys like JJ, Addison, Hock, Darrisaw, O'Neill, you don't think he could at least be a competent starter for the duration of a rookie scale contract? Even Teddy adjacent?

But if KOC can't make it work with him, especially with the weapons he'll be afforded, then KOC probably deserves to be fired.
If I want to be a glass half empty guy, I could say that the guy seems oddly riggid for such a young guy, he hasn't figured out how to put together a running game, his team has periods of looking wildly undisciplined, and he hasn't developed a mid round offensive player since he has been here, whereas his former team has already developed three serious mid round offensive players in the 2 years that he has been gone.

If he can't make due with what he has been given, then he should be fired.

The guy can’t take a hit and when pressured his accuracy goes out the window. I also have massive concerns about his release. His throwing motion looks broken and it seems (without looking at data) like it takes too long for the next level. I was also kind of being a smart ass with that comment. It was a very Froob chat way of saying he’s my least favorite of the top 6 QBs. I’d take Nix over both Penix and McCarthy.

I do like Penix’s deep ball accuracy, and his ability to drive the ball outside the numbers with precision with a clean pocket.
When pressured last season, Penix completed just 59 of 141 passes for 1,072 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 68.0.

[Oriole81]

The GM that takes Penix in the 1st round will be fired in 2 years.

They're welcome to trade up to 4/5 then if they think that. I did say in my follow up that moving up for QB4 was my #1 preference.

But regarding your point about Penix; why?
The guy throws a good ball, is accurate, has good pocket presence, and is a good leader.
If paired with guys like JJ, Addison, Hock, Darrisaw, O'Neill, you don't think he could at least be a competent starter for the duration of a rookie scale contract? Even Teddy adjacent?

But if KOC can't make it work with him, especially with the weapons he'll be afforded, then KOC probably deserves to be fired.
If I want to be a glass half empty guy, I could say that the guy seems oddly riggid for such a young guy, he hasn't figured out how to put together a running game, his team has periods of looking wildly undisciplined, and he hasn't developed a mid round offensive player since he has been here, whereas his former team has already developed three serious mid round offensive players in the 2 years that he has been gone.

If he can't make due with what he has been given, then he should be fired.

The guy can’t take a hit and when pressured his accuracy goes out the window. I also have massive concerns about his release. His throwing motion looks broken and it seems (without looking at data) like it takes too long for the next level. I was also kind of being a smart ass with that comment. It was a very Froob chat way of saying he’s my least favorite of the top 6 QBs. I’d take Nix over both Penix and McCarthy.

I do like Penix’s deep ball accuracy, and his ability to drive the ball outside the numbers with precision with a clean pocket.
When pressured last season, Penix completed just 59 of 141 passes for 1,072 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 68.0.

But he also has a super quick release and almost never takes sacks, so that's why I said he has good pocket presence. He has warts for sure, and he'd definitely be in the tier of guys that "you can win a SB with" vs "he specifically can win you a SB" but on a rookie scale contract you have the tools/time to build that up around him.

I put him in the same tier as Nix though, so if you happen to be more of a Nix guy vs Penix, then I'm fine with my statement having Penix swapped out for Nix.

It just seems like there's so many different ways that this SHOULD WORK, that the only thing to debate about is expectations compared to your investment.
If you're trading up then you hope that the choice is a guy that can be a more singular driver and that could be here for multiple contracts.
That can work.
If you're staying at 11, you're probably getting an ultimate game manager that you may only have around for 5 years?
That can also work.

The thought of this completely busting though just seems so weird.
That can't happen, right?

[weimy froob]

They're welcome to trade up to 4/5 then if they think that. I did say in my follow up that moving up for QB4 was my #1 preference.

But regarding your point about Penix; why?
The guy throws a good ball, is accurate, has good pocket presence, and is a good leader.
If paired with guys like JJ, Addison, Hock, Darrisaw, O'Neill, you don't think he could at least be a competent starter for the duration of a rookie scale contract? Even Teddy adjacent?

But if KOC can't make it work with him, especially with the weapons he'll be afforded, then KOC probably deserves to be fired.
If I want to be a glass half empty guy, I could say that the guy seems oddly riggid for such a young guy, he hasn't figured out how to put together a running game, his team has periods of looking wildly undisciplined, and he hasn't developed a mid round offensive player since he has been here, whereas his former team has already developed three serious mid round offensive players in the 2 years that he has been gone.

If he can't make due with what he has been given, then he should be fired.

The guy can’t take a hit and when pressured his accuracy goes out the window. I also have massive concerns about his release. His throwing motion looks broken and it seems (without looking at data) like it takes too long for the next level. I was also kind of being a smart ass with that comment. It was a very Froob chat way of saying he’s my least favorite of the top 6 QBs. I’d take Nix over both Penix and McCarthy.

I do like Penix’s deep ball accuracy, and his ability to drive the ball outside the numbers with precision with a clean pocket.
When pressured last season, Penix completed just 59 of 141 passes for 1,072 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 68.0.

But he also has a super quick release and almost never takes sacks, so that's why I said he has good pocket presence. He has warts for sure, and he'd definitely be in the tier of guys that "you can win a SB with" vs "he specifically can win you a SB" but on a rookie scale contract you have the tools/time to build that up around him.

I put him in the same tier as Nix though, so if you happen to be more of a Nix guy vs Penix, then I'm fine with my statement having Penix swapped out for Nix.

It just seems like there's so many different ways that this SHOULD WORK, that the only thing to debate about is expectations compared to your investment.
If you're trading up then you hope that the choice is a guy that can be a more singular driver and that could be here for multiple contracts.
That can work.
If you're staying at 11, you're probably getting an ultimate game manager that you may only have around for 5 years?
That can also work.

The thought of this completely busting though just seems so weird.
That can't happen, right?

i'd say the "bust" angle with penix is the injury history. you can't win anything on the IL. his stats under pressure are also concerning. put me in the nix camp.

[Oriole81]

The guy can’t take a hit and when pressured his accuracy goes out the window. I also have massive concerns about his release. His throwing motion looks broken and it seems (without looking at data) like it takes too long for the next level. I was also kind of being a smart ass with that comment. It was a very Froob chat way of saying he’s my least favorite of the top 6 QBs. I’d take Nix over both Penix and McCarthy.

I do like Penix’s deep ball accuracy, and his ability to drive the ball outside the numbers with precision with a clean pocket.
When pressured last season, Penix completed just 59 of 141 passes for 1,072 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 68.0.

But he also has a super quick release and almost never takes sacks, so that's why I said he has good pocket presence. He has warts for sure, and he'd definitely be in the tier of guys that "you can win a SB with" vs "he specifically can win you a SB" but on a rookie scale contract you have the tools/time to build that up around him.

I put him in the same tier as Nix though, so if you happen to be more of a Nix guy vs Penix, then I'm fine with my statement having Penix swapped out for Nix.

It just seems like there's so many different ways that this SHOULD WORK, that the only thing to debate about is expectations compared to your investment.
If you're trading up then you hope that the choice is a guy that can be a more singular driver and that could be here for multiple contracts.
That can work.
If you're staying at 11, you're probably getting an ultimate game manager that you may only have around for 5 years?
That can also work.

The thought of this completely busting though just seems so weird.
That can't happen, right?

i'd say the "bust" angle with penix is the injury history. you can't win anything on the IL. his stats under pressure are also concerning. put me in the nix camp.

I'm more concerned about Penix from a longevity standpoint. Maybe he's not going to be your QB for the next decade, but a rookie contract can still be 7 years of team control, and that's still a long time in this league.
Maybe you only get that first contract with him, but that still has immense value.

Plus, if he is successful, it proves the concept that KOC is capable of working with "lesser" QBs, so once Penix is gone, you tell KOC to go do it again with a similarly tiered value prospect.

But again, I could do this exact same exercise with Nix. I was a big fan of Teddy and Teddy essentially won us a playoff game in year 2 (until Walsh missed) and we still had him under team control for over 3 years, paired with a #1 defense.
Making the NFCCG was year 5 of that Teddy rookie scale window, but it just happened to be Case instead that took us on the run.
That could easily be a Nix arc too.

[Small Hands]

They're welcome to trade up to 4/5 then if they think that. I did say in my follow up that moving up for QB4 was my #1 preference.

But regarding your point about Penix; why?
The guy throws a good ball, is accurate, has good pocket presence, and is a good leader.
If paired with guys like JJ, Addison, Hock, Darrisaw, O'Neill, you don't think he could at least be a competent starter for the duration of a rookie scale contract? Even Teddy adjacent?

But if KOC can't make it work with him, especially with the weapons he'll be afforded, then KOC probably deserves to be fired.
If I want to be a glass half empty guy, I could say that the guy seems oddly riggid for such a young guy, he hasn't figured out how to put together a running game, his team has periods of looking wildly undisciplined, and he hasn't developed a mid round offensive player since he has been here, whereas his former team has already developed three serious mid round offensive players in the 2 years that he has been gone.

If he can't make due with what he has been given, then he should be fired.

The guy can’t take a hit and when pressured his accuracy goes out the window. I also have massive concerns about his release. His throwing motion looks broken and it seems (without looking at data) like it takes too long for the next level. I was also kind of being a smart ass with that comment. It was a very Froob chat way of saying he’s my least favorite of the top 6 QBs. I’d take Nix over both Penix and McCarthy.

I do like Penix’s deep ball accuracy, and his ability to drive the ball outside the numbers with precision with a clean pocket.
When pressured last season, Penix completed just 59 of 141 passes for 1,072 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 68.0.

But he also has a super quick release and almost never takes sacks, so that's why I said he has good pocket presence. He has warts for sure, and he'd definitely be in the tier of guys that "you can win a SB with" vs "he specifically can win you a SB" but on a rookie scale contract you have the tools/time to build that up around him.

I put him in the same tier as Nix though, so if you happen to be more of a Nix guy vs Penix, then I'm fine with my statement having Penix swapped out for Nix.

It just seems like there's so many different ways that this SHOULD WORK, that the only thing to debate about is expectations compared to your investment.
If you're trading up then you hope that the choice is a guy that can be a more singular driver and that could be here for multiple contracts.
That can work.
If you're staying at 11, you're probably getting an ultimate game manager that you may only have around for 5 years?
That can also work.

The thought of this completely busting though just seems so weird.
That can't happen, right?

My thoughts on drafting a game manager at 11 is it’s not a smart move. I’d rather sit tight and take a top 3 defensive player in the draft at 11 and grab whatever game manager is left at 23. I personally think Penix will be there at 23. Some think one of the QB needy teams will take him early l, but I just don’t see it. I think there is a decent chance that 2 of the top 6 guys fall further than most expect. The QB hype is always strong this time of year.

Honestly, if we can’t get into the top 3, I’m changing my whole outlook on the QB position in this draft. I draft BPA at 11, and if Nix isn’t there at 23, I’d go elsewhere again. I’d target Pratt in the 3rd.

[Oriole81]

The guy can’t take a hit and when pressured his accuracy goes out the window. I also have massive concerns about his release. His throwing motion looks broken and it seems (without looking at data) like it takes too long for the next level. I was also kind of being a smart ass with that comment. It was a very Froob chat way of saying he’s my least favorite of the top 6 QBs. I’d take Nix over both Penix and McCarthy.

I do like Penix’s deep ball accuracy, and his ability to drive the ball outside the numbers with precision with a clean pocket.
When pressured last season, Penix completed just 59 of 141 passes for 1,072 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 68.0.

But he also has a super quick release and almost never takes sacks, so that's why I said he has good pocket presence. He has warts for sure, and he'd definitely be in the tier of guys that "you can win a SB with" vs "he specifically can win you a SB" but on a rookie scale contract you have the tools/time to build that up around him.

I put him in the same tier as Nix though, so if you happen to be more of a Nix guy vs Penix, then I'm fine with my statement having Penix swapped out for Nix.

It just seems like there's so many different ways that this SHOULD WORK, that the only thing to debate about is expectations compared to your investment.
If you're trading up then you hope that the choice is a guy that can be a more singular driver and that could be here for multiple contracts.
That can work.
If you're staying at 11, you're probably getting an ultimate game manager that you may only have around for 5 years?
That can also work.

The thought of this completely busting though just seems so weird.
That can't happen, right?

My thoughts on drafting a game manager at 11 is it’s not a smart move. I’d rather sit tight and take a top 3 defensive player in the draft at 11 and grab whatever game manager is left at 23. I personally think Penix will be there at 23. Some think one of the QB needy teams will take him early l, but I just don’t see it. I think there is a decent chance that 2 of the top 6 guys fall further than most expect. The QB hype is always strong this time of year.

Honestly, if we can’t get into the top 3, I’m changing my whole outlook on the QB position in this draft. I draft BPA at 11, and if Nix isn’t there at 23, I’d go elsewhere again. I’d target Pratt in the 3rd.

I did also say above that the best "value" would be to lump both of Penix and Nix in the same tier and then be happy getting either at 23, so I agree with you there.

In the Ponder draft, Dalton and Kaepernick were not far behind, so it would have been best value to just go elsewhere in the first and grab any of the 3 later.
In the Teddy draft, they smartly went defense with pick one because they knew that Teddy was lumped in as well with Manziel, Carr and Jimmy G and they would be very capable of getting any of them.

Short of trading up, the best "value" is either Penix or Nix at 23. I only said what I said initially because it wasn't clear whether everyone had similar views on Nix and Penix.

Regarding missing out in the first entirely, now that's playing with serious fire.
They have no viable starter on their roster right now. Darnold is a prayer still.
They have everything in place though to draft a future starter, including abundance of assets, supply of quality options and teams above us willing to do business.

If they can't get anything done and Darnold doesn't work out, that's a firable offense on both of them.
It would take some serious balls to try that.

[Small Hands]

But he also has a super quick release and almost never takes sacks, so that's why I said he has good pocket presence. He has warts for sure, and he'd definitely be in the tier of guys that "you can win a SB with" vs "he specifically can win you a SB" but on a rookie scale contract you have the tools/time to build that up around him.

I put him in the same tier as Nix though, so if you happen to be more of a Nix guy vs Penix, then I'm fine with my statement having Penix swapped out for Nix.

It just seems like there's so many different ways that this SHOULD WORK, that the only thing to debate about is expectations compared to your investment.
If you're trading up then you hope that the choice is a guy that can be a more singular driver and that could be here for multiple contracts.
That can work.
If you're staying at 11, you're probably getting an ultimate game manager that you may only have around for 5 years?
That can also work.

The thought of this completely busting though just seems so weird.
That can't happen, right?

My thoughts on drafting a game manager at 11 is it’s not a smart move. I’d rather sit tight and take a top 3 defensive player in the draft at 11 and grab whatever game manager is left at 23. I personally think Penix will be there at 23. Some think one of the QB needy teams will take him early l, but I just don’t see it. I think there is a decent chance that 2 of the top 6 guys fall further than most expect. The QB hype is always strong this time of year.

Honestly, if we can’t get into the top 3, I’m changing my whole outlook on the QB position in this draft. I draft BPA at 11, and if Nix isn’t there at 23, I’d go elsewhere again. I’d target Pratt in the 3rd.

I did also say above that the best "value" would be to lump both of Penix and Nix in the same tier and then be happy getting either at 23, so I agree with you there.

In the Ponder draft, Dalton and Kaepernick were not far behind, so it would have been best value to just go elsewhere in the first and grab any of the 3 later.
In the Teddy draft, they smartly went defense with pick one because they knew that Teddy was lumped in as well with Manziel, Carr and Jimmy G and they would be very capable of getting any of them.

Short of trading up, the best "value" is either Penix or Nix at 23. I only said what I said initially because it wasn't clear whether everyone had similar views on Nix and Penix.

Regarding missing out in the first entirely, now that's playing with serious fire.
They have no viable starter on their roster right now. Darnold is a prayer still.
They have everything in place though to draft a future starter, including abundance of assets, supply of quality options and teams above us willing to do business.

If they can't get anything done and Darnold doesn't work out, that's a firable offense on both of them.
It would take some serious balls to try that.

To your last point, I think have a different value on Penix than you do. I’d rather roll with Darnold for a year. Take my lumps, and have a chance at a better QB (possibly Sheduer) next year. I’m not really interested in hitching my wagons to a mid QB for the next 3-4 years. I’d rather bolster the defense and take a flyer on Pratt. Do a little research on Pratt. Let me know what you think.

[somuchyummy]

I'm falling in love with other guys in the draft at other positions than QB. It does feel like if we package all those assets together to move up to get JJ at 5 - or even move more assets to get higher for Maye - it's still a bit of a prayer that either of those two become the great QB that justifies that loss of draft capital. I think Penix or Nix will be there at 23 - i'd rather put our prayers into that, and nab a sure thing that will help the team for years at 11. Or maybe even move from 11 back to around the late teens. I'd be much happier with a first round take of, say, Byron Murphy and Penix - than i would be with only McCarthy.

[Oriole81]

My thoughts on drafting a game manager at 11 is it’s not a smart move. I’d rather sit tight and take a top 3 defensive player in the draft at 11 and grab whatever game manager is left at 23. I personally think Penix will be there at 23. Some think one of the QB needy teams will take him early l, but I just don’t see it. I think there is a decent chance that 2 of the top 6 guys fall further than most expect. The QB hype is always strong this time of year.

Honestly, if we can’t get into the top 3, I’m changing my whole outlook on the QB position in this draft. I draft BPA at 11, and if Nix isn’t there at 23, I’d go elsewhere again. I’d target Pratt in the 3rd.

I did also say above that the best "value" would be to lump both of Penix and Nix in the same tier and then be happy getting either at 23, so I agree with you there.

In the Ponder draft, Dalton and Kaepernick were not far behind, so it would have been best value to just go elsewhere in the first and grab any of the 3 later.
In the Teddy draft, they smartly went defense with pick one because they knew that Teddy was lumped in as well with Manziel, Carr and Jimmy G and they would be very capable of getting any of them.

Short of trading up, the best "value" is either Penix or Nix at 23. I only said what I said initially because it wasn't clear whether everyone had similar views on Nix and Penix.

Regarding missing out in the first entirely, now that's playing with serious fire.
They have no viable starter on their roster right now. Darnold is a prayer still.
They have everything in place though to draft a future starter, including abundance of assets, supply of quality options and teams above us willing to do business.

If they can't get anything done and Darnold doesn't work out, that's a firable offense on both of them.
It would take some serious balls to try that.

To your last point, I think have a different value on Penix than you do. I’d rather roll with Darnold for a year. Take my lumps, and have a chance at a better QB (possibly Sheduer) next year. I’m not really interested in hitching my wagons to a mid QB for the next 3-4 years. I’d rather bolster the defense and take a flyer on Pratt. Do a little research on Pratt. Let me know what you think.

Pratt's fine, but now we're getting into the late Day 2 guys, and those guys don't develop randomly.
They almost always have to be in just the right situation with a HC or OC that is uniquely equipped to develop these guys.
I don't think KOC has earned that right, so as a fan I'm certainly not going to talk strategy of guys like Pratt without first having evidence that KOC is special enough to work with them.

In my "glass half empty" point above, I talked about the past few years of the Rams vs us. In that time, the Rams have identified, drafted and developed into pro bowlers, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. They also traded for Kevin Dotson, who was previously underwhelming in his first stop, and the Rams were able to quickly flip him to a close to $20M per year guy.

We don't have any stories like that.
Now I'm not saying it couldn't ever happen, but that's why I would be incredibly apprehensive about that as a "strategy."
In a macro sense I absolutely love the idea of a team being able to routinely cycle in and out their QBs, but that only works if you have a uniquely equipped HC or OC, and those are just as rare as a truly elite QB.

[hategreenticemase]

You take Penix at 11 in that case.
Don't try to get cute.

You talk about value all the time, and you want to take a 2nd round guy at 11? That would be fn nauseating.

The ideal way to play that scenario out would be to have them equally happy with either Penix or Nix so that you can defer the choice until later and be content with whichever you end up with, but if they're out on Nix, then Penix is the last legit starting option in the draft. Considering there are multiple QB needy teams drafting between 12 and 22, I don't think there's another option but to take him at 11.

There won't be that big of a dropoff in the quality of defensive player for us at 11 vs 23. In the froob draft Murphy, Newton, McKinstry and Dejean were all available at 23, and any of them for the Vikes would have been a great pick.

I'm not saying this is my first choice. My ideal would be to move up to 4/5 for QB4 at an amount that doesn't cost us next year's 1st.

No I totally understand that that's not your ideal scenario and that you wouldn't like it etc, I'm guess I'm just surprised that you be willing to do it if it played out that way. That you be willing to give up that much value of that pic and overpay that substantially for someone that's literally the fifth or sixth best quarterback in the draft.

To me this team locked itself in a corner to go all in on getting one of the top four guys. Any outcome that doesn't result in that is an abject failure. In fact I would argue anything that doesn't result in one of the top four guys should be the downfall of the GM and on his way out of here.

There is a well defined and very clear drop off after the top four guys, and some would argue after the top three guys. The very last thing I would want to do is spend either of our first round picks on a guy that in a normal year would be a second round grade quarterback. Because it comes at more of a cost than just overpaying with a draft choice, it ties your franchise up for at least a couple of years to a guy that you might just view as"meh". To me that's just desperate. Where we should be desperate is following through on what it seems the clear plan was always going to be, move on from cousins because we love someone in the top four. Be desperate to go get that guy then.

To be honest if we don't do that I would rather just try to see what we can do with Darnold this year and trade back both pics and accumulate pics for next year and realize we are going all in on quarterback next draft unless Darnold somehow magically turns into a quality guy.

[Oriole81]

You talk about value all the time, and you want to take a 2nd round guy at 11? That would be fn nauseating.

The ideal way to play that scenario out would be to have them equally happy with either Penix or Nix so that you can defer the choice until later and be content with whichever you end up with, but if they're out on Nix, then Penix is the last legit starting option in the draft. Considering there are multiple QB needy teams drafting between 12 and 22, I don't think there's another option but to take him at 11.

There won't be that big of a dropoff in the quality of defensive player for us at 11 vs 23. In the froob draft Murphy, Newton, McKinstry and Dejean were all available at 23, and any of them for the Vikes would have been a great pick.

I'm not saying this is my first choice. My ideal would be to move up to 4/5 for QB4 at an amount that doesn't cost us next year's 1st.

No I totally understand that that's not your ideal scenario and that you wouldn't like it etc, I'm guess I'm just surprised that you be willing to do it if it played out that way. That you be willing to give up that much value of that pic and overpay that substantially for someone that's literally the fifth or sixth best quarterback in the draft.

To me this team locked itself in a corner to go all in on getting one of the top four guys. Any outcome that doesn't result in that is an abject failure. In fact I would argue anything that doesn't result in one of the top four guys should be the downfall of the GM and on his way out of here.

There is a well defined and very clear drop off after the top four guys, and some would argue after the top three guys. The very last thing I would want to do is spend either of our first round picks on a guy that in a normal year would be a second round grade quarterback. Because it comes at more of a cost than just overpaying with a draft choice, it ties your franchise up for at least a couple of years to a guy that you might just view as"meh". To me that's just desperate. Where we should be desperate is following through on what it seems the clear plan was always going to be, move on from cousins because we love someone in the top four. Be desperate to go get that guy then.

To be honest if we don't do that I would rather just try to see what we can do with Darnold this year and trade back both pics and accumulate pics for next year and realize we are going all in on quarterback next draft unless Darnold somehow magically turns into a quality guy.

Trading up for one of the QBs is still essentially "overpaying."

Here's a list of where the main sites rank QBs 3 and 4 (our most likely trade up targets) in their overall prospect rankings...

Sporting News: 11 and 23
Draft Buzz: 7 and 13 (their QB4 actually is Penix though at #13)
Jeremiah: 6, 21
PFF: 22, 28
Draftek: 6, 13
CBS: 6, 19

Most on here are very comfortable in the idea of giving up two first round picks to get up for QB4, but every one of these has the QB4 as a definitively worse prospect than we should be getting by just sticking and picking at 11.

So I guess when I made that statement, I had resigned myself to the fact that we'll be "overpaying" no matter what we eventually do.
It's whatever scenario we're the most comfortable with though, in regards to our "overpaying."

[-VikingsTw-]

I'm more concerned about Penix from a longevity standpoint. Maybe he's not going to be your QB for the next decade, but a rookie contract can still be 7 years of team control, and that's still a long time in this league.
Maybe you only get that first contract with him, but that still has immense value.

Plus, if he is successful, it proves the concept that KOC is capable of working with "lesser" QBs, so once Penix is gone, you tell KOC to go do it again with a similarly tiered value prospect.

But again, I could do this exact same exercise with Nix. I was a big fan of Teddy and Teddy essentially won us a playoff game in year 2 (until Walsh missed) and we still had him under team control for over 3 years, paired with a #1 defense.
Making the NFCCG was year 5 of that Teddy rookie scale window, but it just happened to be Case instead that took us on the run.
That could easily be a Nix arc too.

I think many of these QB's could work, probably even Penix. Sam Darnold might be able to make it happen. The teams got some nice pieces and if they continue to draft good football players and add nice FA's on good deals they will do what they've always done and build a very good roster. It comes in waves with the Vikings but they always do it.

The key component to getting over the hump is finding the next clutch QB that wants it all so bad and also believes it will happen at the same time.

These guys are so rare it's ridiculous and this draft might not even have one. When you do get to the playoffs and you get in big moments you have to have a guy at QB that doesn't choke. We can do fantasy football all day with these QB's but who's the killer so to speak?

I think JJ McCarthy has and will continue to develop a winning mindset. From my perspective his mental game seems above average to these other QB's. Would it surprise me if Sean Peyton was super high on the kid that visualizes his success? Probably not because it's the same thing Drew Brees did. He didn't talk about it a lot but I always found that super interesting. Drew Brees was a visualizer. JJ also quiets the mind through meditation, the Vikings HC talks about playing with a quiet mind... Why is that?

At the end of day they are all physically talented, some more than others. Like Drake Maye's arm talent is absolutely ridiculous but is he a winner? I don't have any doubts he will be good and will tear it up on paper... But is he Josh Allen in the big moments or Patrick Mahomes?

[Hoop Dreams]

Penix told ESPN that he plans to meet with the Giants, Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, and Steelers.

[hategreenticemase]

The ideal way to play that scenario out would be to have them equally happy with either Penix or Nix so that you can defer the choice until later and be content with whichever you end up with, but if they're out on Nix, then Penix is the last legit starting option in the draft. Considering there are multiple QB needy teams drafting between 12 and 22, I don't think there's another option but to take him at 11.

There won't be that big of a dropoff in the quality of defensive player for us at 11 vs 23. In the froob draft Murphy, Newton, McKinstry and Dejean were all available at 23, and any of them for the Vikes would have been a great pick.

I'm not saying this is my first choice. My ideal would be to move up to 4/5 for QB4 at an amount that doesn't cost us next year's 1st.

No I totally understand that that's not your ideal scenario and that you wouldn't like it etc, I'm guess I'm just surprised that you be willing to do it if it played out that way. That you be willing to give up that much value of that pic and overpay that substantially for someone that's literally the fifth or sixth best quarterback in the draft.

To me this team locked itself in a corner to go all in on getting one of the top four guys. Any outcome that doesn't result in that is an abject failure. In fact I would argue anything that doesn't result in one of the top four guys should be the downfall of the GM and on his way out of here.

There is a well defined and very clear drop off after the top four guys, and some would argue after the top three guys. The very last thing I would want to do is spend either of our first round picks on a guy that in a normal year would be a second round grade quarterback. Because it comes at more of a cost than just overpaying with a draft choice, it ties your franchise up for at least a couple of years to a guy that you might just view as"meh". To me that's just desperate. Where we should be desperate is following through on what it seems the clear plan was always going to be, move on from cousins because we love someone in the top four. Be desperate to go get that guy then.

To be honest if we don't do that I would rather just try to see what we can do with Darnold this year and trade back both pics and accumulate pics for next year and realize we are going all in on quarterback next draft unless Darnold somehow magically turns into a quality guy.

Trading up for one of the QBs is still essentially "overpaying."

Here's a list of where the main sites rank QBs 3 and 4 (our most likely trade up targets) in their overall prospect rankings...

Sporting News: 11 and 23
Draft Buzz: 7 and 13 (their QB4 actually is Penix though at #13)
Jeremiah: 6, 21
PFF: 22, 28
Draftek: 6, 13
CBS: 6, 19

Most on here are very comfortable in the idea of giving up two first round picks to get up for QB4, but every one of these has the QB4 as a definitively worse prospect than we should be getting by just sticking and picking at 11.

So I guess when I made that statement, I had resigned myself to the fact that we'll be "overpaying" no matter what we eventually do.
It's whatever scenario we're the most comfortable with though, in regards to our "overpaying."

Definitely, will be overpaying to do that. But, we boxed ourselves in by jettisoning Cousins. The more I think about it, the more I think they were never bringing him back and just played it this way. Not even ripping that, but the fact is, they made that choice which instantly necessitated that they over pay. They did that. It is what it is. Again, not ripping it, probably was best choice, and I am good with it, but they damn sure better then pull it off.

The part I think your failing to accurately "weigh" here is:

A. There is a MASSSIVE drop off in ceiling of play of qb1-4 to the next group of qb's.
B. That overpaying for a "meh" guy is in a different stratosphere than overpaying for a universally thought of high ceiling guy.

Lets just hope they get it done for one of the top 4. They fn have to.

[Oriole81]

No I totally understand that that's not your ideal scenario and that you wouldn't like it etc, I'm guess I'm just surprised that you be willing to do it if it played out that way. That you be willing to give up that much value of that pic and overpay that substantially for someone that's literally the fifth or sixth best quarterback in the draft.

To me this team locked itself in a corner to go all in on getting one of the top four guys. Any outcome that doesn't result in that is an abject failure. In fact I would argue anything that doesn't result in one of the top four guys should be the downfall of the GM and on his way out of here.

There is a well defined and very clear drop off after the top four guys, and some would argue after the top three guys. The very last thing I would want to do is spend either of our first round picks on a guy that in a normal year would be a second round grade quarterback. Because it comes at more of a cost than just overpaying with a draft choice, it ties your franchise up for at least a couple of years to a guy that you might just view as"meh". To me that's just desperate. Where we should be desperate is following through on what it seems the clear plan was always going to be, move on from cousins because we love someone in the top four. Be desperate to go get that guy then.

To be honest if we don't do that I would rather just try to see what we can do with Darnold this year and trade back both pics and accumulate pics for next year and realize we are going all in on quarterback next draft unless Darnold somehow magically turns into a quality guy.

Trading up for one of the QBs is still essentially "overpaying."

Here's a list of where the main sites rank QBs 3 and 4 (our most likely trade up targets) in their overall prospect rankings...

Sporting News: 11 and 23
Draft Buzz: 7 and 13 (their QB4 actually is Penix though at #13)
Jeremiah: 6, 21
PFF: 22, 28
Draftek: 6, 13
CBS: 6, 19

Most on here are very comfortable in the idea of giving up two first round picks to get up for QB4, but every one of these has the QB4 as a definitively worse prospect than we should be getting by just sticking and picking at 11.

So I guess when I made that statement, I had resigned myself to the fact that we'll be "overpaying" no matter what we eventually do.
It's whatever scenario we're the most comfortable with though, in regards to our "overpaying."

Definitely, will be overpaying to do that. But, we boxed ourselves in by jettisoning Cousins. The more I think about it, the more I think they were never bringing him back and just played it this way. Not even ripping that, but the fact is, they made that choice which instantly necessitated that they over pay. They did that. It is what it is. Again, not ripping it, probably was best choice, and I am good with it, but they damn sure better then pull it off.

The part I think your failing to accurately "weigh" here is:

A. There is a MASSSIVE drop off in ceiling of play of qb1-4 to the next group of qb's.
B. That overpaying for a "meh" guy is in a different stratosphere than overpaying for a universally thought of high ceiling guy.

Lets just hope they get it done for one of the top 4. They fn have to.

I have said my preference is to trade up for QB4, which as of right now seems very plausible and affordable.
But it's always good to have your contingency plans in place, which is all this convo started out as.

[Beef Supreme]

I'm more concerned about Penix from a longevity standpoint. Maybe he's not going to be your QB for the next decade, but a rookie contract can still be 7 years of team control, and that's still a long time in this league.
Maybe you only get that first contract with him, but that still has immense value.

Plus, if he is successful, it proves the concept that KOC is capable of working with "lesser" QBs, so once Penix is gone, you tell KOC to go do it again with a similarly tiered value prospect.

But again, I could do this exact same exercise with Nix. I was a big fan of Teddy and Teddy essentially won us a playoff game in year 2 (until Walsh missed) and we still had him under team control for over 3 years, paired with a #1 defense.
Making the NFCCG was year 5 of that Teddy rookie scale window, but it just happened to be Case instead that took us on the run.
That could easily be a Nix arc too.

I think many of these QB's could work, probably even Penix. Sam Darnold might be able to make it happen. The teams got some nice pieces and if they continue to draft good football players and add nice FA's on good deals they will do what they've always done and build a very good roster. It comes in waves with the Vikings but they always do it.

The key component to getting over the hump is finding the next clutch QB that wants it all so bad and also believes it will happen at the same time.

These guys are so rare it's ridiculous and this draft might not even have one. When you do get to the playoffs and you get in big moments you have to have a guy at QB that doesn't choke. We can do fantasy football all day with these QB's but who's the killer so to speak?

I think JJ McCarthy has and will continue to develop a winning mindset. From my perspective his mental game seems above average to these other QB's. Would it surprise me if Sean Peyton was super high on the kid that visualizes his success? Probably not because it's the same thing Drew Brees did. He didn't talk about it a lot but I always found that super interesting. Drew Brees was a visualizer. JJ also quiets the mind through meditation, the Vikings HC talks about playing with a quiet mind... Why is that?

At the end of day they are all physically talented, some more than others. Like Drake Maye's arm talent is absolutely ridiculous but is he a winner? I don't have any doubts he will be good and will tear it up on paper... But is he Josh Allen in the big moments or Patrick Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes went 12-13 his two years as a starter at Texas Tech.


You would have questioned his winning mentality.

[D_H]

Diana Russini on the Collin heard show just now said no one is moving up the draft JJ McCarthy. She’s actually laughed at the idea after talking to owners at the meetings last weekend.

It was just on the air. I’m sure you can find it if you want to see the look on her face talking about JJ McCarthy moving up. She actually laughed out loud at the idea. She obviously talked to a lot of people at the owners meeting.

[D_H]

“The Seahawks offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb) was Michael Penix’s offensive coordinator in college. Seattle doesn’t owe Geno Smith any money next year. I think he (Penix) throws the prettiest ball in the draft…You can say it’s a bit of a reach, but Seattle’s got their pieces…Seattle’s ready to win.”

I’m on record saying I’d stay at 11 and take Penix there. Kurt Warner has him as the third best quarterback coming out this draft that means something.

[hategreenticemase]

Trading up for one of the QBs is still essentially "overpaying."

Here's a list of where the main sites rank QBs 3 and 4 (our most likely trade up targets) in their overall prospect rankings...

Sporting News: 11 and 23
Draft Buzz: 7 and 13 (their QB4 actually is Penix though at #13)
Jeremiah: 6, 21
PFF: 22, 28
Draftek: 6, 13
CBS: 6, 19

Most on here are very comfortable in the idea of giving up two first round picks to get up for QB4, but every one of these has the QB4 as a definitively worse prospect than we should be getting by just sticking and picking at 11.

So I guess when I made that statement, I had resigned myself to the fact that we'll be "overpaying" no matter what we eventually do.
It's whatever scenario we're the most comfortable with though, in regards to our "overpaying."

Definitely, will be overpaying to do that. But, we boxed ourselves in by jettisoning Cousins. The more I think about it, the more I think they were never bringing him back and just played it this way. Not even ripping that, but the fact is, they made that choice which instantly necessitated that they over pay. They did that. It is what it is. Again, not ripping it, probably was best choice, and I am good with it, but they damn sure better then pull it off.

The part I think your failing to accurately "weigh" here is:

A. There is a MASSSIVE drop off in ceiling of play of qb1-4 to the next group of qb's.
B. That overpaying for a "meh" guy is in a different stratosphere than overpaying for a universally thought of high ceiling guy.

Lets just hope they get it done for one of the top 4. They fn have to.

I have said my preference is to trade up for QB4, which as of right now seems very plausible and affordable.
But it's always good to have your contingency plans in place, which is all this convo started out as.

No, I totally get it, I'm just surprised that's your contingency. I would rather wait for next year and try to catch lightening in a bottle in Darnold rather than overpay for QB 5. Honestly, the overpaying isn't my biggest issue, it's tying up 2-3 years on a guy that everything has to go perfectly to be even decent.

[Oriole81]

Definitely, will be overpaying to do that. But, we boxed ourselves in by jettisoning Cousins. The more I think about it, the more I think they were never bringing him back and just played it this way. Not even ripping that, but the fact is, they made that choice which instantly necessitated that they over pay. They did that. It is what it is. Again, not ripping it, probably was best choice, and I am good with it, but they damn sure better then pull it off.

The part I think your failing to accurately "weigh" here is:

A. There is a MASSSIVE drop off in ceiling of play of qb1-4 to the next group of qb's.
B. That overpaying for a "meh" guy is in a different stratosphere than overpaying for a universally thought of high ceiling guy.

Lets just hope they get it done for one of the top 4. They fn have to.

I have said my preference is to trade up for QB4, which as of right now seems very plausible and affordable.
But it's always good to have your contingency plans in place, which is all this convo started out as.

No, I totally get it, I'm just surprised that's your contingency. I would rather wait for next year and try to catch lightening in a bottle in Darnold rather than overpay for QB 5. Honestly, the overpaying isn't my biggest issue, it's tying up 2-3 years on a guy that everything has to go perfectly to be even decent.

They've already pushed this decision 2 years.
I really don't like the strategy FOR THEM SPECIFICALLY to push this yet another year, especially when this year's class is supposed to be so much better and we've already positioned ourselves to make a move up.

I will agree in a theoretical sense that you always want to organically grow the team and try to maximize value, but at some point the individual decision makers also need to stick their flag in the ground and make a decision.

If they defer the decision yet again and the Darnold thing doesn't work, then they're not around to make the ultimate pick. That's a fire able offense in my opinion.

[Hornets]

A few here have hinted at wanting the Vikes to wait till next year to address the QB issue. I get the hesitancy, but we appear to be capable of landing a solid if not spectacular option THIS year. No one knows for sure how a QB's career is going to go, but waiting another year to find out just seems the wrong move to make imo. With the overall talent the Queens will have (even with Darnold) I could easily see another 8-9 win season and another draft pick out of the top 10, meaning no shot at next year's top QB's. Just make this the year you go for it and live with the decision.......

[weimy froob]

I have said my preference is to trade up for QB4, which as of right now seems very plausible and affordable.
But it's always good to have your contingency plans in place, which is all this convo started out as.

No, I totally get it, I'm just surprised that's your contingency. I would rather wait for next year and try to catch lightening in a bottle in Darnold rather than overpay for QB 5. Honestly, the overpaying isn't my biggest issue, it's tying up 2-3 years on a guy that everything has to go perfectly to be even decent.

They've already pushed this decision 2 years.
I really don't like the strategy FOR THEM SPECIFICALLY to push this yet another year, especially when this year's class is supposed to be so much better and we've already positioned ourselves to make a move up.

I will agree in a theoretical sense that you always want to organically grow the team and try to maximize value, but at some point the individual decision makers also need to stick their flag in the ground and make a decision.

If they defer the decision yet again and the Darnold thing doesn't work, then they're not around to make the ultimate pick. That's a fire able offense in my opinion.

as a side note i think they screwed up in not sighing darnold to a two year contract on the chance that it does.

[hategreenticemase]

I have said my preference is to trade up for QB4, which as of right now seems very plausible and affordable.
But it's always good to have your contingency plans in place, which is all this convo started out as.

No, I totally get it, I'm just surprised that's your contingency. I would rather wait for next year and try to catch lightening in a bottle in Darnold rather than overpay for QB 5. Honestly, the overpaying isn't my biggest issue, it's tying up 2-3 years on a guy that everything has to go perfectly to be even decent.

They've already pushed this decision 2 years.
I really don't like the strategy FOR THEM SPECIFICALLY to push this yet another year, especially when this year's class is supposed to be so much better and we've already positioned ourselves to make a move up.

I will agree in a theoretical sense that you always want to organically grow the team and try to maximize value, but at some point the individual decision makers also need to stick their flag in the ground and make a decision.

If they defer the decision yet again and the Darnold thing doesn't work, then they're not around to make the ultimate pick. That's a fire able offense in my opinion.

I agree with all that, but will add,when you tell a top 8-10ish QB "no thanks" and send him on his way and then you do not go get one of the 4 high ceiling QB avail in draft, that's also fireable.

[RubeTube]

No, I totally get it, I'm just surprised that's your contingency. I would rather wait for next year and try to catch lightening in a bottle in Darnold rather than overpay for QB 5. Honestly, the overpaying isn't my biggest issue, it's tying up 2-3 years on a guy that everything has to go perfectly to be even decent.

They've already pushed this decision 2 years.
I really don't like the strategy FOR THEM SPECIFICALLY to push this yet another year, especially when this year's class is supposed to be so much better and we've already positioned ourselves to make a move up.

I will agree in a theoretical sense that you always want to organically grow the team and try to maximize value, but at some point the individual decision makers also need to stick their flag in the ground and make a decision.

If they defer the decision yet again and the Darnold thing doesn't work, then they're not around to make the ultimate pick. That's a fire able offense in my opinion.

as a side note i think they screwed up in not sighing darnold to a two year contract on the chance that it does.

I agree with this. Probably could have got him a bit cheaper too by signing two years and you have a decent backup at the least the next year with him.

[RubeTube]

No, I totally get it, I'm just surprised that's your contingency. I would rather wait for next year and try to catch lightening in a bottle in Darnold rather than overpay for QB 5. Honestly, the overpaying isn't my biggest issue, it's tying up 2-3 years on a guy that everything has to go perfectly to be even decent.

They've already pushed this decision 2 years.
I really don't like the strategy FOR THEM SPECIFICALLY to push this yet another year, especially when this year's class is supposed to be so much better and we've already positioned ourselves to make a move up.

I will agree in a theoretical sense that you always want to organically grow the team and try to maximize value, but at some point the individual decision makers also need to stick their flag in the ground and make a decision.

If they defer the decision yet again and the Darnold thing doesn't work, then they're not around to make the ultimate pick. That's a fire able offense in my opinion.

I agree with all that, but will add,when you tell a top 8-10ish QB "no thanks" and send him on his way and then you do not go get one of the 4 high ceiling QB avail in draft, that's also fireable.

I agree with you. I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m only willing to trade up for Maye (Maybe Daniels but not so sure anymore). I hope they get Maye and I’m willing to give up 3 #1’s for him but if the move into the top #3 isn’t there, I’m not even trading both 1sts for the shot at QB #4. Just sit put if you are not getting one of the top 3, specifically Maye for me. Let someone else panic and trade up on QB #4.

[weimy froob]

i think daniels can hold up. if he can he's the most dynamic guy and they could have the best offense in the league by the second half of the year. i'm in on him. mccarthy has a better arm and is faster than maye--i'm in on him too. if they get maye i'll be fine with it as well.

[RubeTube]

A few here have hinted at wanting the Vikes to wait till next year to address the QB issue. I get the hesitancy, but we appear to be capable of landing a solid if not spectacular option THIS year. No one knows for sure how a QB's career is going to go, but waiting another year to find out just seems the wrong move to make imo. With the overall talent the Queens will have (even with Darnold) I could easily see another 8-9 win season and another draft pick out of the top 10, meaning no shot at next year's top QB's. Just make this the year you go for it and live with the decision.......

Next years QBs are shit anyway.

If they decided to not draft a QB, I wouldn’t even worry about getting one next year. I don’t think there is even a slight chance they don’t draft one of the top 6. It just all comes to value for me.

If you can’t get one of the big 3, I just sit back and wait and if I know I can get one of then at #23 and take the best defensive player at #11, I’m willing to take the last guy left as I don’t think there is that much that separates the other 3.