Preferred Playoff Opponents

[shuttlesworth]

There are now two pretty established tiers of playoff teams in the West: A top 4 (Minnesota, OKC, LAC, and Denver) and six teams in the second tier (Phoenix, New Orleans, Dallas, Sacramento, LAL, and Golden State).

In the first round, Minnesota will almost certainly play a team from the second tier. In the second round - assuming Minnesota gets there - they will likely play a team from the top 4.

How do you rank Minnesota's likely opponents in each round? My rankings (in order of the team I would most want to play to the teams I would least want to play):

First round:
1. Sacramento
2. Los Angeles Lakers
3. Golden State
4. New Orleans
5. Phoenix
6. Dallas

Two things to note: First, I'm scared of Dallas. Luka can single-handedly swing a playoff series. Kyrie can win them a game or two by himself. And they added really nice pieces at the deadline, including PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford (who looks like prime Tyson Chandler in his first few games as a Mav). They've now won six straight. They might even be favored in their first-round matchup, whoever that is.

Second, New Orleans also freaks me out way more than they should. They've lost some really bad games, but they've also had some really impressive wins (beating the Clippers by double digits in LA, and blowing out the Wolves earlier this season). When healthy, they are a very good team.

Second round:
1. LA Clippers
2. OKC
3. Denver

There's some weird rock-paper-scissors stuff going on here. I think the Clippers could beat Oklahoma City handily in a seven-game series, because they have defenders to throw at both SGA and Jalen Williams, and OKC doesn't have enough elite wing defenders to contend with Kawhi and Paul George. But Minnesota is a really bad matchup for OKC, as we've seen in both games they've played -- LAC just doesn't have the size to contend with Minnesota's bigs, and (at least so far) LAC hasn't been able to play Minnesota's bigs off the floor with small ball. (One lineup that LAC hasn't really tried yet - which might change things -- is Harden/Coffee/Powell/George/Kawhi. That puts five shooters on the floor and forces Gobert to guard one of them, keeping him farther away from the basket).

Oklahoma City is scary to me, but I still think I'd take Minnesota in a seven-game series. There has been a ton of matchup chess between Finch and Daignault over the four games the two teams have played. But in the last game, Minnesota landed on a lineup that checkmated OKC -- putting McDaniels on Chet Holmgren and letting Rudy lurk off the non-shooter (Dort or Giddey) -- and OKC hasn't (yet) been able to find a workable counter. That may change now that OKC has Gordon Hayward (who I imagine will take a lot of Giddey's minutes and probably finish games), but that still leaves one non-shooter (Dort) for Rudy to lurk off of.

Denver has looked like shit lately as the losers of three straight (including two blowouts). But they are the defending champs, and they have the best player in the world (Jokic) and someone who can at least slow down Ant (Aaron Gordon). To those who say that Gordon couldn't slow down Ant in last year's playoffs: that is because Gordon was guarding KAT almost the entire time. I think McDaniels could be a game-changer in this series as a Murray stopper (he was injured for the last one), and I like the way Minnesota matches up with Jokic. But still, Denver is a championship teams that cruised through last year's playoffs, and they will be a very tough out. Minnesota and Denver play each other three more times this season, and it will be very interesting to see those matchups.

[Jimi_Thing]

Cool thread idea!


First round:
1. Lakers
2. Warriors
3. Kings
4. Mavericks
5. Pelicans
6. Suns

Second round:
1. LA Clippers
2. Denver
3. OKC

[weimy froob]

first round i don't want to see the suns or pelicans. maybe i'm a little foolhardy--but dallas doesn't scare me. can irving be unconscious for the whole series? they've played a lot of games against dallas including pre-season and have won most of them.

second round and the season is already in gravy time. i'd look forward to a series against any of those teams and i think they could take down each one of them. even though they match up well with the nuggets i'd probably have them as the team i'd least likely to see--but until i see them play the suns again i'm more afraid of that team than any of the other ones. they haven't had a real answer for the pelicans either. get out of the first round and i'll reassess.

[PanicWolf]

Denver, New Orleans and Phoenix scare me. Bring on anyone else.

[somuchyummy]

I think they are all dangerous. The West is tough. The best we can do is stay healthy and continue to build our game.

[twolves31]

In the first round only New Orleans scares me if they are pretty healthy, we really have no answers for Zion. In the 2nd round Denver is the only team that scares me between Denver, Clippers and OKC. I would rather see OKC in the 2nd round, their lack of playoff experience will be their downfall. We can rematch with Denver in WCF if they end up beating the Clippers. I would say the perfect route would be Utah in the first round, OKC in the 2nd round, Clippers in the WCF. Miami gets hot again in the playoffs and Wolves vs Butler in the finals.

[salamander]

I am no elite basketball mind but:

First round:
1. Sacramento
2. Golden State
3. Dallas
4. New Orleans
5. Phoenix
6. Los Angeles Lakers

Sacramento and Golden State don't really scare me. Feel like we're just too good for them to be a threat. Dallas I feel like our defense will be able to smother their offense enough. It'll be hard fought. Pelicans just seem like a matchup nightmare. Suns always make me nervous these last few years. Just don't want anything to do with them. And then the Lakers last because there is no way the refs don't let Lebron Lakers lose the first round. That's a loss just because of the refs.

Second round:
1. Denver
2. LA Clippers
3. OKC

Will Denver even be able to field a whole team by the playoffs? Just kidding. But seriously, seems like this is a nasty injury year for them. This is my pick for a first round upset this year. Clippers, seems like we have their number. OKC we've been back and forth with this year but I honestly think we beat them.

Going through this, there are teams we'd play in the first round that worry me more than then higher "Second round" tier.

[HeHateMe]

There are now two pretty established tiers of playoff teams in the West: A top 4 (Minnesota, OKC, LAC, and Denver) and six teams in the second tier (Phoenix, New Orleans, Dallas, Sacramento, LAL, and Golden State).

In the first round, Minnesota will almost certainly play a team from the second tier. In the second round - assuming Minnesota gets there - they will likely play a team from the top 4.

How do you rank Minnesota's likely opponents in each round? My rankings (in order of the team I would most want to play to the teams I would least want to play):

First round:
1. Sacramento
2. Los Angeles Lakers
3. Golden State
4. New Orleans
5. Phoenix
6. Dallas

Two things to note: First, I'm scared of Dallas. Luka can single-handedly swing a playoff series. Kyrie can win them a game or two by himself. And they added really nice pieces at the deadline, including PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford (who looks like prime Tyson Chandler in his first few games as a Mav). They've now won six straight. They might even be favored in their first-round matchup, whoever that is.

Second, New Orleans also freaks me out way more than they should. They've lost some really bad games, but they've also had some really impressive wins (beating the Clippers by double digits in LA, and blowing out the Wolves earlier this season). When healthy, they are a very good team.

Second round:
1. LA Clippers
2. OKC
3. Denver

There's some weird rock-paper-scissors stuff going on here. I think the Clippers could beat Oklahoma City handily in a seven-game series, because they have defenders to throw at both SGA and Jalen Williams, and OKC doesn't have enough elite wing defenders to contend with Kawhi and Paul George. But Minnesota is a really bad matchup for OKC, as we've seen in both games they've played -- LAC just doesn't have the size to contend with Minnesota's bigs, and (at least so far) LAC hasn't been able to play Minnesota's bigs off the floor with small ball. (One lineup that LAC hasn't really tried yet - which might change things -- is Harden/Coffee/Powell/George/Kawhi. That puts five shooters on the floor and forces Gobert to guard one of them, keeping him farther away from the basket).

Oklahoma City is scary to me, but I still think I'd take Minnesota in a seven-game series. There has been a ton of matchup chess between Finch and Daignault over the four games the two teams have played. But in the last game, Minnesota landed on a lineup that checkmated OKC -- putting McDaniels on Chet Holmgren and letting Rudy lurk off the non-shooter (Dort or Giddey) -- and OKC hasn't (yet) been able to find a workable counter. That may change now that OKC has Gordon Hayward (who I imagine will take a lot of Giddey's minutes and probably finish games), but that still leaves one non-shooter (Dort) for Rudy to lurk off of.

Denver has looked like shit lately as the losers of three straight (including two blowouts). But they are the defending champs, and they have the best player in the world (Jokic) and someone who can at least slow down Ant (Aaron Gordon). To those who say that Gordon couldn't slow down Ant in last year's playoffs: that is because Gordon was guarding KAT almost the entire time. I think McDaniels could be a game-changer in this series as a Murray stopper (he was injured for the last one), and I like the way Minnesota matches up with Jokic. But still, Denver is a championship teams that cruised through last year's playoffs, and they will be a very tough out. Minnesota and Denver play each other three more times this season, and it will be very interesting to see those matchups.

I think your rankings are spot on except I would change the second round opponents...

1. OKC -- I like this matchup for the Wolves.. inexperience on OKC's end will be interesting as the season goes on. I think vets help more in the playoffs.
2. Denver -- Denver as a whole doesn't scare me... Jokic does but MN presents a tough challenge for him too where the other teams do not. I would guess Nuggets fans would say avoid MN... OKC probably would prefer MN over the Clippers and Denver.
3. Clippers -- I know we just kicked the crap out of them but the individual guys still scare me.

[witljon]

I think they are all dangerous. The West is tough. The best we can do is stay healthy and continue to build our game.

I completely agree with you. There’s a good chance the healthiest team will come out of the west. I love our big 3 of Gobert, Towns, and Edwards, but the west is too good for us to afford an injury.
The Warriors are still the Warriors with Steph, Klay, and Dray.
The Lakers got 2 all time greats in LeBron and the Brow.
The Mavericks have Luka and Kyrie.
The Pelicans have Zion, Ingram, and McCollum.
The Suns have Durant, Booker, and Beal.
The Clippers have Kawhi, George, the Beard, and Westbrook.
The Thunder have SGA and Chet.
The Nuggets have Jokic and Murray.
And if we do get by all this, we’ll probably have the Celtics, 76ers, or Bucks waiting for us.

[A$$MAN]

I would love to see Sacramento in the first round, then OKC in the second. As someone else said, I don't want anything to do with the Lakers in the first because of the LeBron/NBA/ref angle. Same could be said for the warriors.

I really am not scared of OKC. If we simply avoid stupid turnovers and play defense, I think we win easily.

[somuchyummy]

In the first round only New Orleans scares me if they are pretty healthy, we really have no answers for Zion. In the 2nd round Denver is the only team that scares me between Denver, Clippers and OKC. I would rather see OKC in the 2nd round, their lack of playoff experience will be their downfall. We can rematch with Denver in WCF if they end up beating the Clippers. I would say the perfect route would be Utah in the first round, OKC in the 2nd round, Clippers in the WCF. Miami gets hot again in the playoffs and Wolves vs Butler in the finals.

i think the key with the Pels is to not let Zion and Ingram off the hook when they are playing D. go hard at them all game and make them work - it just means they'll have less energy on O. I'm not sure what that means on our end - certainly Karl, but Jaden needs to bring that energy on O as well. The Wizards lost last night - but it was fairly close - and it wasn't for any lack of effort by Deni Avdija. Ingram and Zion combined for 54 - but Avdija nailed them for 43. 6 made threes. 15 rebounds. Kuzma was out last night - so the Wizards had to go with Coulibaly, who only had 6 points. But still - when Zion and Ingram combine for 54 points - but are only a plus 5 on the opponent's forwards - they haven't exactly dominated. go hard at both of them.

[somuchyummy]

I think they are all dangerous. The West is tough. The best we can do is stay healthy and continue to build our game.

I completely agree with you. There’s a good chance the healthiest team will come out of the west. I love our big 3 of Gobert, Towns, and Edwards, but the west is too good for us to afford an injury.
The Warriors are still the Warriors with Steph, Klay, and Dray.
The Lakers got 2 all time greats in LeBron and the Brow.
The Mavericks have Luka and Kyrie.
The Pelicans have Zion, Ingram, and McCollum.
The Suns have Durant, Booker, and Beal.
The Clippers have Kawhi, George, the Beard, and Westbrook.
The Thunder have SGA and Chet.
The Nuggets have Jokic and Murray.
And if we do get by all this, we’ll probably have the Celtics, 76ers, or Bucks waiting for us.

and don't forget Jalen Williams on OKC. he's really coming on in regular fashion. 22 ppg now over his last 13 games.

[witljon]

I would love to see Sacramento in the first round, then OKC in the second. As someone else said, I don't want anything to do with the Lakers in the first because of the LeBron/NBA/ref angle. Same could be said for the warriors.

I really am not scared of OKC. If we simply avoid stupid turnovers and play defense, I think we win easily.

The top 2 teams in the west have the least amount of playoff experience. It’s going to be a gauntlet to get through the west. The east look much easier. It sure looks like everyone is overlooking the Wolves and Thunder. I’d love to see them in the western conference finals.

[shuttlesworth]

Right now, the likeliest scenario (per basketball reference) is that the Wolves end up with the 3 seed and that Dallas ends up with the 6 seed. (That also reflects the current West standings.)

As noted above, Dallas is the team I'd least want to see in the first round. Luka and Kyrie both have significant playoff experience (Luka made the conference finals two seasons ago, and Kyrie of course has a ring with Cleveland), and they significantly upgraded their roster at the trade deadline. The Mavs re 15-6 since then (which works out to a 58-win pace), and they just blew out the Kings by 36 points in Sacramento. The Wolves took the season series 3-1, but in two of those games Luke and Kyrie didn't play, and in a third game Kyrie didn't play. In the only game where Luke and Kyrie both played, the Mavs won (in Dallas) 115-108.

The Wolves do seem to match up well with the Mavs on paper. Dallas doesn't have anyone who can really stop Ant (Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum are probably their two best wing defenders, and neither really scare me as Ant-stoppers), and Minnesota has a lot of solid wing defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving - McDaniels, Edwards, NAW, and Anderson have all done solid jobs on the perimeter this year. Plus the Wolves have Gobert, who can hopefully take away some of Irving's acrobatic drives. But Irving and Doncic are so good offensively that it almost doesn't matter who guards them. They can both go for 40 easily, and either one of them can swing multiple playoff games by themselves. In a first-round matchup with the Wolves -- especially if Towns isn't healthy (or is just coming back) -- I think many analysts would take the Mavs in 6.

[SHAFA]

Selfishly I'd like to see GS in the first round as a 2/7 matchup. I'd love to be the team that nails their coffin shut.

[Mplsfonz]

Selfishly I'd like to see GS in the first round as a 2/7 matchup. I'd love to be the team that nails their coffin shut.

GS might not even make the play in. Houston is right on their heels with 9 wins str8.
I actually would rather play the kings in the first round. Playing the rest of them teams they have so much more PO experience it's tough to beat.
Kings not so much. Given the stars LA, GS and Dallas has, I am afraid they will just look to draw us into foul trouble. That disrupts our game flow, and the refs have shown they will give them the calls. Look at the Lakers and Bucks game, LA shoot 34 free throws to Mil 17.
Refs are betting on sports IMHO.

[twolves31]

Selfishly I'd like to see GS in the first round as a 2/7 matchup. I'd love to be the team that nails their coffin shut.

We would have to finish first or GS would have to pass both the Laker's and Phoenix to get into 8th place and win that 7th/8th place play-in to get that 7th seed.

[twolves31]

Right now, the likeliest scenario (per basketball reference) is that the Wolves end up with the 3 seed and that Dallas ends up with the 6 seed. (That also reflects the current West standings.)

As noted above, Dallas is the team I'd least want to see in the first round. Luka and Kyrie both have significant playoff experience (Luka made the conference finals two seasons ago, and Kyrie of course has a ring with Cleveland), and they significantly upgraded their roster at the trade deadline. The Mavs re 15-6 since then (which works out to a 58-win pace), and they just blew out the Kings by 36 points in Sacramento. The Wolves took the season series 3-1, but in two of those games Luke and Kyrie didn't play, and in a third game Kyrie didn't play. In the only game where Luke and Kyrie both played, the Mavs won (in Dallas) 115-108.

The Wolves do seem to match up well with the Mavs on paper. Dallas doesn't have anyone who can really stop Ant (Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum are probably their two best wing defenders, and neither really scare me as Ant-stoppers), and Minnesota has a lot of solid wing defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving - McDaniels, Edwards, NAW, and Anderson have all done solid jobs on the perimeter this year. Plus the Wolves have Gobert, who can hopefully take away some of Irving's acrobatic drives. But Irving and Doncic are so good offensively that it almost doesn't matter who guards them. They can both go for 40 easily, and either one of them can swing multiple playoff games by themselves. In a first-round matchup with the Wolves -- especially if Towns isn't healthy (or is just coming back) -- I think many analysts would take the Mavs in 6.

Luka has one great playoff run, but hasn't made the playoffs in two years. The last time Kyrie was in the playoffs, Durant and Kyrie got swept by Boston two years ago. Dallas is a good team playing well since the deadline, but Wolves in 5 or 6.

[weimy froob]

some of these games have already been played. i'd like to see the wolves play the kings. probably going to have to get to #2 and then sacramento would have to win that first play-in game. i should add that OKC is playing a red hot houston team on the second of a back to back tonight. be nice to see that one game swing with the wolves beating the pistons. move them up to number two via the tie-breaker i think.

MIN (10 of final 13 at home): CLE, GSW, @DEN, @PHX, @LAL, DEN, PHX
OKC (6 of final 14 at home): @MIL, @NOP, PHX, @NYK, @BOS, SAC, MIL, DAL
LAC (8 of final 14 at home): @ORL, @SAC, DEN, CLE, @PHX, PHX
DEN (7 of final 12 at home): PHX, MIN, CLE, LAC, MIN
PHX (4 of final 12 at home): @DEN, @OKC, @NOP, CLE, MIN, NOP, LAC, @LAC, @SAC, @MIN
NOP (7 of final 13 at home): @MIA, OKC, MIL, BOS, PHX, ORL, @PHX, @SAC, GSW, LAL
SAC (8 of final 13 at home): @ORL, DAL, DAL, LAC, @NYK, @BOS, @OKC, NOP, PHX
DAL (8 of final 13 at home): @SAC, @SAC, @GSW, GSW, @MIA, @OKC

[SHAFA]

Selfishly I'd like to see GS in the first round as a 2/7 matchup. I'd love to be the team that nails their coffin shut.

We would have to finish first or GS would have to pass both the Laker's and Phoenix to get into 8th place and win that 7th/8th place play-in to get that 7th seed.

Yes, I understand how unlikely it is.

[Moses Scurry]

I'm fine with anyone not named the warriors or pelicans. Warriors because hot shooting can beat length and the Wiggins being involved factor. Pelicans because our size doesn't seem to bother them and they can bully us.

[twolves31]

some of these games have already been played. i'd like to see the wolves play the kings. probably going to have to get to #2 and then sacramento would have to win that first play-in game. i should add that OKC is playing a red hot houston team on the second of a back to back tonight. be nice to see that one game swing with the wolves beating the pistons. move them up to number two via the tie-breaker i think.

MIN (10 of final 13 at home): CLE, GSW, @DEN, @PHX, @LAL, DEN, PHX
OKC (6 of final 14 at home): @MIL, @NOP, PHX, @NYK, @BOS, SAC, MIL, DAL
LAC (8 of final 14 at home): @ORL, @SAC, DEN, CLE, @PHX, PHX
DEN (7 of final 12 at home): PHX, MIN, CLE, LAC, MIN
PHX (4 of final 12 at home): @DEN, @OKC, @NOP, CLE, MIN, NOP, LAC, @LAC, @SAC, @MIN
NOP (7 of final 13 at home): @MIA, OKC, MIL, BOS, PHX, ORL, @PHX, @SAC, GSW, LAL
SAC (8 of final 13 at home): @ORL, DAL, DAL, LAC, @NYK, @BOS, @OKC, NOP, PHX
DAL (8 of final 13 at home): @SAC, @SAC, @GSW, GSW, @MIA, @OKC

Shai is out tonight with a sore quad.