2020 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

[Dan33185]

https://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/ ... mberwolves

Under Contract (10): Jarrett Culver, Jacob Evans, Jake Layman, Jaylen Nowell (non-guaranteed), Josh Okogie, Naz Reid (non-guaranteed), D’Angelo Russell, Omari Spellman, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jarred Vanderbilt (non-guaranteed)

Free Agents (6): Malik Beasley (restricted), Juancho Hernangomez (restricted), James Johnson (unrestricted – player option), Kelan Martin (restricted – Two-Way), Jordan McLaughlin (restricted – Two-Way), Evan Turner (unrestricted)

Projected Cap Space: None. $34.2 million below Tax

Projected Exceptions: Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level ($9.7 million), Bi-Annual ($3.8 million)

Projected First Round Draft Pick (pre-lottery): #3, #16 (via Brooklyn)

Analysis: The Minnesota Timberwolves were as active as any team at the 2020 trade deadline as they remade their team around Karl-Anthony Towns. Gone is Andrew Wiggins, who never lived up to his max extension. In his place as Towns’ new running mate is D’Angelo Russell.

In many ways, the swap of Wiggins for Russell was their big offseason move, just made early. It was a good one too. While both players make a similar amount, Wiggins’ time in Minnesota had run its course. Russell has holes in his game, but he’s friends with Towns and plays a position that has been a bugaboo for the Wolves for years. With Towns and Russell, the Timberwolves have as dangerous a pick and roll pairing as any in the NBA. Defensively? The Wolves should score a lot of points!

With their building blocks in place, it’s up to Gersson Rosas to find the right pieces around the two young stars. Josh Okogie and Jarrett Culver were the team’s two most-recent first-round picks. They overlap positions, but bring different skills to the table. There isn’t much competition, but Okogie is easily the Wolves best defensive wing. He plays bigger than his size because he’s strong and has great athleticism. He’s not much of a shooter, so his offense comes from running the floor and off cuts. That’s not a bad thing, given Towns and Russell’s high usage, but it would help if Okogie developed as a shooter.

Culver was a disappointment as a rookie. It was hoped he could play either wing position, and provide some playmaking as well. Instead, he shot it poorly, provided little playmaking and looked overwhelmed defensively. Culver is still young enough to improve, but he’s going to have a make a leap for the Wolves to feel like he’s a rotation player.

Joining the two youngsters at the off-guard spot after the trade deadline was Malik Beasley. Unlike either of the homegrown products, Beasley looks like a surefire NBA rotation player. In 14 games with the Wolves, Beasley averaged 20.7 points per game on 47% shooting, including a robust 42.6% from downtown. Beasley also chipped in 5.1 rebounds in just over 33 minutes per game.

The hope was that with playing time that was never coming with the Nuggets, Beasley would blossom. That happened, but now the Timberwolves are faced with a dilemma: What do you pay Beasley as a free agent? He’s young enough to be part of a core group built around Towns and Russell. He’s a terrific third scorer and shoots it well enough to play off the ball, but he’s not much of a defender. And Beasley isn’t big enough to play up at the three either. That makes building out the rest of the roster a complicated thing.

If Minnesota can get Beasley for under $15 million a year, they’ll have done well to lock in a solid asset. Even if he’s not a perfect fit alongside Towns and Russell, he’ll be a tradable piece on a deal like that. A team with cap space that could use some scoring, like Charlotte or Detroit, could make Minnesota sweat an offer sheet, but those teams have holes elsewhere to fill.

The Wolves' other big roster decision comes with Beasley’s fellow former Nugget teammate Juancho Hernangomez. Hernangomez was another player who it was hoped would do well with consistent playing time. He also proved that to be prophetic, as he delivered 12.9 points on 42% shooting from three and 7.3 rebounds in just under 30 minutes.

Like Beasley, Hernangomez is a restricted free agent. His market is more of an unknown, as the teams with cap space don’t project to be suitors for Hernangomez. That means Minnesota should be able to retain him on a reasonable contract. The question then becomes: Should they?

Hernangomez is a nice fit alongside Towns and Russell, because he can space the floor with his shooting. He’s a solid enough rebounder to play up front with Towns. But a starting lineup of Towns, Hernangomez, Okogie, Beasley and Russell isn’t stopping anyone.

That’s the problem for Minnesota. They have some nice players, but the fit is messy. And that messy fit makes it hard to justify giving big contracts to either Beasley or Hernangomez. Given you don’t want to lose either for nothing, the Wolves will probably pay both now and then figure it out later.

If Beasley and Hernangomez combine to make around $25 million or so, that leaves the Timberwolves close to the luxury tax line. Depending on how much the cap drops from the current projection, that margin gets even tighter. This isn’t a team that should be paying the tax, given it’s a fight for them just to get into playoff contention in the Western Conference.

Because of that, Minnesota could look to use a pick to move James Johnson’s $16 million contract. Johnson could help as a backup big, but not enough to justify that salary on a rebuilding team. If a team like Atlanta or Charlotte, or even New York with a new front office, decides to eat some bad money for an asset, Johnson should be a prime target. If the Wolves don’t move him, they can play him as a backup and let his contract expire in 2021, when the cap sheet could be cleaner.

As for the rest of the Minnesota roster, Rosas and crew did a good job finding some talented undrafted players. Jordan McLaughlin looks like he can be a backup point guard behind Russell. Kelan Martin had moments as the Wolves other Two-Way player. And Naz Reid looks like he’ll be a quality backup for Towns. All three youngsters should be back with Minnesota next season.

Beyond re-signing Beasley and Hernangomez, and maybe finding a new home for Johnson, it’s probably going to a quiet offseason for the Timberwolves. This next year is about developing Towns and Russell into a devastating offensive pairing and finding who fits around them. Beasley and Hernangomez are a nice start, especially if Minnesota leans into being an offensive team. At the very least, with better health, the Wolves should be more fun to watch than they have been since Jimmy Butler helped them break their playoff drought in 2018.

[SHAFA]

Why would we use a pick to move JJ’s expiring deal rather than let him play and, you know, expire without giving up an asset?

[RubeTube]

I wouldn't give hermangonzalez a extension.

DLO, Kat, Beasley and Okogie

The rest of the roster can disappear.

[YBBR]

Why would we use a pick to move JJ’s expiring deal rather than let him play and, you know, expire without giving up an asset?

No kidding. Like he was pretty solid too. Whatever let him play and pay him his money. You probably could acquire a small asset for him at the deadline instead of giving one up to spend the extra cash on nobody in particular.

[Style]

I wouldn't give hermangonzalez a extension.

DLO, Kat, Beasley and Okogie

The rest of the roster can disappear.

Especially at a $10M point. I like him, and I’d support re-signing him, but that price is silly.

[Style]

Why would we use a pick to move JJ’s expiring deal rather than let him play and, you know, expire without giving up an asset?

No kidding. Like he was pretty solid too. Whatever let him play and pay him his money. You probably could acquire a small asset for him at the deadline instead of giving one up to spend the extra cash on nobody in particular.

Agreed. It doesn’t make much sense to desperately dump him. If his money is needed elsewhere, I’d look to a buyout.

[somuchyummy]

is turner even still a thing with us? i thought he was gone - plus his money.

also, yeah, juancho did alright with us - but no need to pony up extra money for him at a spot we're looking for a long term solution to anyway. jj can play out his last year at PF, layman can play the 4 some, we probably will take one with the draft, vandy still has potential and is cheap, and as far as i know, we've still got spellman on the books thru next year. might as well see what he's got too. no need to spend extra on juancho when he really doesn't separate himself from that group anyway.

[jodaman01]

is turner even still a thing with us? i thought he was gone - plus his money.

also, yeah, juancho did alright with us - but no need to pony up extra money for him at a spot we're looking for a long term solution to anyway. jj can play out his last year at PF, layman can play the 4 some, we probably will take one with the draft, vandy still has potential and is cheap, and as far as i know, we've still got spellman on the books thru next year. might as well see what he's got too. no need to spend extra on juancho when he really doesn't separate himself from that group anyway.

Basically sees Beasley and Juancho as paid placeholders for other players in trade. Also a pretty crushing (although realistic) take on Culver.

Kind of high on Okogie (IMO overly so). At some point this upcoming season they will need to figure out if they are going to invest and give the time on the floor to develop to Okogie or Culver....Culver was such a disastrous pick for Rosas and the Wolves. Rosas and this franchise can’t afford another mistake like that this year.

I do agree they need to give Vanderbilt and Spellman time, Vanderbilt appears to be able to get rebounds better than anything else on the roster and Spellman potentially adds size and presence Inside

GO WOLVES!!

[KevinBaconIsNotMyHero]

Culver didn’t look overwhelmed defensively. That was his lone bright spot. Hernangomez is not a good fit with KAT because defensively they can’t guard anyone. Not sure how much Wolves basketball this writer actually watched.

[T_J]

Culver didn’t look overwhelmed defensively. That was his lone bright spot. Hernangomez is not a good fit with KAT because defensively they can’t guard anyone. Not sure how much Wolves basketball this writer actually watched.

That was my thought too. Basically we're going to pay Hernan and Beas because we don't have another choice....but they'll be tradable if need be which is a Daryl Morey special. They're both rotation guys, but aren't moving the needle imo.

[somuchyummy]

i thought this too. too much okogie love and culver dislike. i almost wonder if he's got some inside info that culver's being moved and okogie kept - and this is some company propaganda piece trying to sway fans' opinions. i thought culver did fine defensively - plus he had a really pretty good second half to the season, which should bring hope, right? i like okogie- but the guy can't shoot. until he figures out how to become just a marginal threat from deep - at the least - i consider him to be the more marginal nba player of the two.

[somuchyummy]

i'm going to throw some numbers out in defense of culver's shooting - at least from deep. and they've been on these pages before but it bears repeating.

both okogie and culver haven't been good from three. okogie has a two year 27.7% mark from 3 - culver did a bit better in his one year rookie sample - 29.9%. but i think culver offers more hope - not saying that josh can't improve, but it's time for him to start doing that.

in the first 30 games this season, okogie went 20 of 71 (28%) from deep. in the final 34 of this year, he went 21 of 83 (25%). a bit of a downslide, but pretty much in the same ballpark from the first half of the year through the second. consistently bad.

in the first 30 games this year, culver was horrible from deep - 23 of 98 (23%). it was horrible, but let's also notice that it was only a little worse than josh's second half 25% mark. now here's where the hope comes. the final 34 games of this season, culver improved his deepball to 43 of 123 (35%). not all star stuff, but certainly respectable and now something that had to be accounted for by opposing defenses. it leads me to think we've got more of a two way player in culver than we do in josh.

[Thrillkill]

Culver didn’t look overwhelmed defensively. That was his lone bright spot. Hernangomez is not a good fit with KAT because defensively they can’t guard anyone. Not sure how much Wolves basketball this writer actually watched.

This.

If you say Culver struggled on D and Hermanmunster is a great fit there is no reason to listen to another word Just another clown pretending he knows anything about the clown show we have going on here.

[jodaman01]

Culver didn’t look overwhelmed defensively. That was his lone bright spot. Hernangomez is not a good fit with KAT because defensively they can’t guard anyone. Not sure how much Wolves basketball this writer actually watched.

This.

If you say Culver struggled on D and Hermanmunster is a great fit there is no reason to listen to another word Just another clown pretending he knows anything about the clown show we have going on here.

The way I read it was that Juancho is definitely not the right fit next to KAT, so I believe the writer is accurate there.

Wishing for Okogie or Culver as starters is the stuff of which vulnerable adults are made. They are going to have to pay Okogie soon and to me he is nothing but a bench specialist (glue guy - Bruce Bowen) for his NBA life, Culver is similar without the guts or fire.

Rosas needs to view them both as assets for hopefully something better and nothing more.

GO WOLVES!!

[Beef Supreme]

Culver didn’t look overwhelmed defensively. That was his lone bright spot. Hernangomez is not a good fit with KAT because defensively they can’t guard anyone. Not sure how much Wolves basketball this writer actually watched.

This.

If you say Culver struggled on D and Hermanmunster is a great fit there is no reason to listen to another word Just another clown pretending he knows anything about the clown show we have going on here.

Offensively Hernangomez is a fair fit with Towns. I’d like to see him be a little better at cutting and I think his shooting may be a bit of a mirage at 42% (he’s a career 36% guy, that doesn’t cover as many inadequacies as 42% does, if he regresses to his mean, he’s an average shooter who does nothing else well.). Also, I think this writer overrated he’s rebounding. I think he’s sub-par. 7.3r/36 at the 4 is pretty bad, especially in this high-volume era. His rebounding rate for the wolves was 13.1%. Not impressive. By comparison, Towns is a good, but not elite rebounder, and he pulls down 19.3% of rebounds for his career.

His defensive liabilities are wel-documented and make him a terrible fit with Towns at that end.

He’s a decent bench big when you need a shooter. I hope he stays for a reasonable price, but if someone offers him a big deal, wish him well.

[somuchyummy]

i feel like we have enough other PF options to make do till we find the "guy". a draft pick, layman, spellman, vandy, jj - does juancho really separate himself from that group in such a way to merit a new contract? what does he give us that that bunch doesn't? i like him, but not that much.

[KevinBaconIsNotMyHero]

i feel like we have enough other PF options to make do till we find the "guy". a draft pick, layman, spellman, vandy, jj - does juancho really separate himself from that group in such a way to merit a new contract? what does he give us that that bunch doesn't? i like him, but not that much.

They probably don’t want to lose the asset for nothing but I agree he’s not a difference maker. Unfortunately for him his fit with KAT is terrible defensively. And his “stretch” ability is not the level you would need to ignore the defensive shortcomings.

[SHAFA]

I think Spellman’s made his feelings pretty clear, and I’d rather we not keep someone around that’s going to be a pissy asshole. He’s young and already carries that rep, so why bother. I really know little of Vanderbilt, so I can’t have strong opinions of him either way.

Juancho’s a fine bench piece as long as it’s a reasonable price, but man, his finishing around the rim was absolutely putrid after he got here.

[somuchyummy]

juancho is fun, but he doesn't move the needle. and i'm not entirely sold that spellman was pissy - i think it's just as easy to believe that he was part of the deal the twolves didn't want, and they told him straight up that he didn't have a future here. point being though - beggars can't be choosers, he does provide on court value as a stretch 4 and we've got him under contract for next year. just use him and let juancho go find his bigger deal somewhere else. neither of those guys would be long for the team - so why not just use the guy we have on a cheap contract?

[SHAFA]

I dunno. Pissy or not, he didn’t start out his career on the right foot.

Beyond that, I consider him and Naz a bit redundant anyway. Naz has a full three year deal and they seem to really want to push his development.

I’m happy to cut the guy loose if they can’t find a deal. There were rumors we were looking to waive him anyways.

[Thrillkill]

juancho is fun, but he doesn't move the needle. and i'm not entirely sold that spellman was pissy - i think it's just as easy to believe that he was part of the deal the twolves didn't want, and they told him straight up that he didn't have a future here. point being though - beggars can't be choosers, he does provide on court value as a stretch 4 and we've got him under contract for next year. just use him and let juancho go find his bigger deal somewhere else. neither of those guys would be long for the team - so why not just use the guy we have on a cheap contract?

He had every right to be pissed. Earned a spot of GS and was playing up to it. And then let me make this clear to everyone. He was not demanding he get a spot on the active roster or playing time or a starting spot. He wanted what everyone on any roster wants and that's an opportunity to earn a shot. What he got was traded to a team that does not want him because his ridiculous size is such a minus. He can block a shot? What's that. So of course we cut him..............................oh wait. We stuffed him in the Gleague to never be called up because of that stupid stuff he does that doesn't matter.

If you built yourself an NBA career and some brain fucked idiot thought you were meaningless but still took you in a trade but doesn't want you but won't cut you and is sabotaging your career without even giving you a chance to compete? How would you all feel? People give him shit because he's pissed? Did he demand a trade? Did he buck? Go Home> No. There was one rumor he was not happy to be traded. One. And would you have been after building a career being traded to the idiot who thinks being tall is a minus?

He's better than Hurmanmunster and fits better but the idiot won't admit that because the little pansy would have to admit size matters. And we all should know it doesn't....according to his mom.........and the man his mom calls he little............not little.........perfect sized.......perfect sized genius. Thank god this asshole will be gone when we are making these decisions.

[somuchyummy]

i'm only comparing juancho and spellman because one contract is set and the other would have to be negotiated and larger. but i'm perfectly comfortable letting both of them go - knowing we have three draft picks, jake layman, james johnson and jarred vanderbilt on board. my point being - i don't think juancho moves the needle enough to sign him on for a longer deal. he played well for us - but so has layman, so did jj, vandy's still untested and we've got all this draft capital. there's simply no need - other than maybe rosas wanting to justify his trade more by keeping the guy.

[Thrillkill]

I dunno. Pissy or not, he didn’t start out his career on the right foot.

Beyond that, I consider him and Naz a bit redundant anyway. Naz has a full three year deal and they seem to really want to push his development.

I’m happy to cut the guy loose if they can’t find a deal. There were rumors we were looking to waive him anyways.

Didn't start out his career on the right foot That matters.

That's why Rodman was such a failure starting his career as a Jr College janitor.

Also love the "we were gonna cut him anyway" angle. Yeah, the worlds worst and least qualified GM ever was gonna cut him. So it's......................fine.

[SO_MONEY]

juancho is fun, but he doesn't move the needle. and i'm not entirely sold that spellman was pissy - i think it's just as easy to believe that he was part of the deal the twolves didn't want, and they told him straight up that he didn't have a future here. point being though - beggars can't be choosers, he does provide on court value as a stretch 4 and we've got him under contract for next year. just use him and let juancho go find his bigger deal somewhere else. neither of those guys would be long for the team - so why not just use the guy we have on a cheap contract?

I doubt this very much. Not realistic we didn't want Spellman or we would tell him we didn't want him with the time left on his rookie contract. It is just silly frankly to think those events took place.

Juancho at what he will get will be a nice low cost backup big. Spellman is a cheap young trade candidate given his attitude.

[somuchyummy]

what does juancho do next year for us that layman and jj don't? we already have two other players at the same "tier" of talent than him. and that doesn't include what we'd draft in three picks. i mean, how many effing PFs does a team need?

[SO_MONEY]

what does juancho do next year for us that layman and jj don't? we already have two other players at the same "tier" of talent than him. and that doesn't include what we'd draft in three picks. i mean, how many effing PFs does a team need?

First, Layman is more a SF and Second, we don't have that many PFs, which is why it is on our needs list along with SF. Juancho will be fine at backup.

[somuchyummy]

true, layman is more of a SF. only here he's often played the 4. can't change gersson's rules at this point for the sake of the argument. and jj played really well for us last year. AND look at some video of what vandy's game is like - he's got all sorts of open floor ball skills, probably the best rebounder of the bunch - the kid totally has game that we should let him show. and a draft pick of which one for sure will be a 4. it's not like juancho is a star or something - we're not cutting the cord on a jonathan isaac or whatnot. he's just a similar tier PF of which we have a few. and what would it take to sign him? if it's anything over 3M a year, just a big NO. i'm afraid the push to resign him is a rosas thing - meant to show the public just how valuable that trade piece was. see? we RESIGNED him - so he's gotta be important, right? i would not put that kind of shit past gersson or ANY GM for that matter.

[SO_MONEY]

true, layman is more of a SF. only here he's often played the 4. can't change gersson's rules at this point for the sake of the argument. and jj played really well for us last year. AND look at some video of what vandy's game is like - he's got all sorts of open floor ball skills, probably the best rebounder of the bunch - the kid totally has game that we should let him show. and a draft pick of which one for sure will be a 4. it's not like juancho is a star or something - we're not cutting the cord on a jonathan isaac or whatnot. he's just a similar tier PF of which we have a few. and what would it take to sign him? if it's anything over 3M a year, just a big NO. i'm afraid the push to resign him is a rosas thing - meant to show the public just how valuable that trade piece was. see? we RESIGNED him - so he's gotta be important, right? i would not put that kind of shit past gersson or ANY GM for that matter.

Juancho is just fine at backup.

[witljon]

I wouldn't give hermangonzalez a extension.

DLO, Kat, Beasley and Okogie

The rest of the roster can disappear.

I wouldn't give up on the Culver kid yet.

[jodaman01]

what does juancho do next year for us that layman and jj don't? we already have two other players at the same "tier" of talent than him. and that doesn't include what we'd draft in three picks. i mean, how many effing PFs does a team need?

Just one that is actually a PF and actually worth a shit.

That we do not have, and is why you are begging for one in the draft and then have to hope that player turns out to be worth a shit at the NBA level in a few years, all while DLO and KAT’s contracts are ticking away and we are hoping for trades to fix the roster the season after next.

Who knows maybe lightning will strike and Rosas will draft a PF that pairs perfectly next to KAT. I’ve been a Wolves fan way to long to not be more than a bit jaded at the thought of that happening.

I believe Rosas is out to trade the pick somehow.

GO WOLVES!!