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Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
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Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Go small ball.
- somuchyummy
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
thanks WFL. that's just the stat i was looking for.
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- memyworld
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
That makes sense since they usually miss more shots than the other team.
- weimy froob
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
i didn't see this thread when i threw that stat in the game thread. they still might have got the W last night if KAT doesn't step out of bounds before hitting that three.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Worst GM, worst coach, worst system, fucking a pretty damn good roster.
All this crap just goes to show you the one note, shortcut to thinking that "philosophies" and "styles" are.Play small ball because we want to shoot and hit more 3's and wings are better 3 shooters than bigs. Well Gorgs is our 2nd best shooter so why doesn't he play with Towns?
Um........................to tall.
But he's twice (literally) the 3 shooter than Graham who started most of the year.
Yeah but he's tall. Tall guys don't shoot it as well.
FUCK YOU!
All this crap just goes to show you the one note, shortcut to thinking that "philosophies" and "styles" are.Play small ball because we want to shoot and hit more 3's and wings are better 3 shooters than bigs. Well Gorgs is our 2nd best shooter so why doesn't he play with Towns?
Um........................to tall.
But he's twice (literally) the 3 shooter than Graham who started most of the year.
Yeah but he's tall. Tall guys don't shoot it as well.
FUCK YOU!
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Defensive rebounds are easier to get than offensive rebounds.
The more shots your opponents miss, the more chances for defensive rebounds you get.
The Timberwolves don’t play great defense (17th in fg% against), so there aren’t as many opportunities for the easy defensive rebounds.
The Timberwolves are a terrible shooting team (28th in fg% and 22nd in ft%), thus giving our opponents many opportunities for easy defensive rebounds.
I bet that 3-19 mark is similar to our mark when we get outshot.
It’s not as simple as “too short, bad rebounds, we lose!”
The more shots your opponents miss, the more chances for defensive rebounds you get.
The Timberwolves don’t play great defense (17th in fg% against), so there aren’t as many opportunities for the easy defensive rebounds.
The Timberwolves are a terrible shooting team (28th in fg% and 22nd in ft%), thus giving our opponents many opportunities for easy defensive rebounds.
I bet that 3-19 mark is similar to our mark when we get outshot.
It’s not as simple as “too short, bad rebounds, we lose!”
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- somuchyummy
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
i think 3-19 when we're outrebounded is a pretty damning stat. we apparently are ignoring it at our own peril.
we were outrebounded for most of the game by 10 - final mark was a minus 5 on the boards for us - in a 2 point loss. i think it matters. bigs were KAT, dieng, and then two SFs IMO playing PF. KAT's just coming back from being out for a long spell - his 5 boards didn't surprise me. dieng had a meh night with 5. roco had a good night with 10. but KBD had 1. a night with 77 total rebounds and our "bigs" got 21. that's not good. vonleh and bell (both with per 36s of 12 rebounds) stayed nailed to the bench. i think they are both healthy. KBD gets their minutes at the 4, and he's either an okay-rebounding SF being played out of position - or he's a really weak-rebounding PF. he's got a career per 36 of less than 6 rebounds. he's played 59 games for us so far - and has had 5 or more rebounds (high of 8) just 14 times. it's pretty apparent that's not his strength, but he continues to be asked to go down on the block and do it. and, like i've said, i think rebounds (possessions) matter.
we were outrebounded for most of the game by 10 - final mark was a minus 5 on the boards for us - in a 2 point loss. i think it matters. bigs were KAT, dieng, and then two SFs IMO playing PF. KAT's just coming back from being out for a long spell - his 5 boards didn't surprise me. dieng had a meh night with 5. roco had a good night with 10. but KBD had 1. a night with 77 total rebounds and our "bigs" got 21. that's not good. vonleh and bell (both with per 36s of 12 rebounds) stayed nailed to the bench. i think they are both healthy. KBD gets their minutes at the 4, and he's either an okay-rebounding SF being played out of position - or he's a really weak-rebounding PF. he's got a career per 36 of less than 6 rebounds. he's played 59 games for us so far - and has had 5 or more rebounds (high of 8) just 14 times. it's pretty apparent that's not his strength, but he continues to be asked to go down on the block and do it. and, like i've said, i think rebounds (possessions) matter.
Last edited by somuchyummy on Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Get Montrezl Harrell
- Beef Supreme
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Agreed. But I think the stat is at least in part a symptom of the problem and not the problem itself.somuchyummy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:41 am i think 3-19 when we're outrebounded is a pretty damning stat.
We are a slightly below average team when it comes to forcing misses. Our fg% against is 17th in the league. So we have slightly less opportunities for defensive rebounds than the average team.
We are a terrible shooting team. 28th in the league in fg%. This gives our opponents a lot of extra chances at defensive rebounds. We are 5th in the league in offensive rebounding. Probably not because we’re a great offensive rebounding team, rather we are such a poor shooting team that we have more chances to rebound offensively than most teams. We probably are a below average rebounding team overall. But I postulate that our atrocious shooting is more a factor in our losing than our bad rebounding. Our atrocious shooting contributes to losing and being out rebounded. Bad shooting is the disease. Bad rebounding and losing are the symptoms.
If we shot better, there wouldn’t be so many chances for other teams to defensively rebound and we’d probably not get out rebounded as often. And we’d probably win more.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
We got outshot worse.somuchyummy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:41 am i think 3-19 when we're outrebounded is a pretty damning stat. we apparently are ignoring it at our own peril.
we were outrebounded for most of the game by 10 - final mark was a minus 5 on the boards for us - in a 2 point loss. i think it matters. bigs were KAT, dieng, and then two SFs IMO playing PF. KAT's just coming back from being out for a long spell - his 5 boards didn't surprise me. dieng had a meh night with 5. roco had a good night with 10. but KBD had 1. a night with 77 total rebounds and our "bigs" got 21. that's not good. vonleh and bell (both with per 36s of 12 rebounds) stayed nailed to the bench. i think they are both healthy. KBD gets their minutes at the 4, and he's either an okay-rebounding SF being played out of position - or he's a really weak-rebounding PF. he's got a career per 36 of less than 6 rebounds. he's played 59 games for us so far - and has had 5 or more rebounds (high of 8) just 14 times. it's pretty apparent that's not his strength, but he continues to be asked to go down on the block and do it. and, like i've said, i think rebounds (possessions) matter.
Wolves FG% 45.5 (not terrible). 40/88
Pacers FG% 56.1 (utterly atrocious defense) 46/82
The teams shot almost identical from the ft line and each missed 4 fts.
Wolves total missed shots: 52
Wolves offensive rebounds: 7 (13%)
Pacers defensive rebounds: 37 (71%)
Pacers total missed shots: 40
Pacers offensive rebounds: 4 (10%)
Wolves defensive rebounds: 29 (72.5%)
Turnovers and steals were dead even. We shot 21fts and they shot 20. We got 6 more shots up. We actually got more possessions than they did!
So you can see that the wolves actually did a better job on both ends of the glass than the pacers. We got 13% of the offensive rebounds available to their 10%. We got 72.5% of the defensive rebounds available compared to their 71%. There are four missed shots by each team with no corresponding rebound. Presumably, these are either heaves at the end of quarters that are not rebounded or a missed ft on the front end of a pair or either of the first two when shooting 3fts.
Yet they still had the edge in aggregate rebounding (41-36) because they forced us into so many misses and made so many of their shots. You get a much higher rate of defensive rebounds available that you do offensive rebounds available so outshooting you’re opponent is a huge factor in outrebounding them.
The problem is shooting and defense. Not rebounding. Shoot better and play better defense and you won’t get outrebounded so often. We missed 12 more shots than them. That’s why we lost. The rebounds were split pretty evenly, with a slight edge to us, if you look at it as a percentage on each end of the floor (a more advanced way to look at it than just raw aggregate numbers).
This is certainly true for this particular game and I imagine this holds true for the season as well, but I haven’t crunched those numbers as thoroughly.
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- somuchyummy
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
thanks for the work. you make a lot of good points. we're still i think 6th worst in the league for rebounding differential - and seem to be promoting bigs (KBD, naz) who are both mediocre on the boards. on the path we're on, i don't see us becoming better in that area - and if you look at D as also an area we need to improve, is KBD a good defender? honest question. i know it's a weak spot for naz. they are getting the minutes over vonleh and bell - who are both good to very good defenders, are our second and third best rebounders per 36, and are #1 and #2 on our team in FG%.
Last edited by somuchyummy on Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- jffl_commish
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Weird what happens when you completely ignore the PF position, and the guy you have playing SF barely rebounds at all.
Let's get Tropical
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
What’s the league average or median record when being out-rebounded?
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
And on top of that it’s exacerbated by the fact Rosas with the 6th pick in the draft picked a kid who shoots like Stevie Wonder from anywhere 3 feet outside of the rim.jffl_commish wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:01 am Weird what happens when you completely ignore the PF position, and the guy you have playing SF barely rebounds at all.
I would bet money I could beat the kid in a game of HORSE from the free throw line and behind the 3pt Line. It’s a fucking embarrassment. Wouldn’t need so many rebounds.
Of course Rosas’s system is designed for 3’s, and what’s Culver’s worst attribute...sheer fucking genius.
The good thing is it sounds like Rosas is doing everything he can to address his incredible blunder and get a PG here before the deadline.
GO WOLVES!!
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
yeah the stat could be showing how many poor shooting nights they've had-but whatever the reason it's a strong indicator of whether it's going to be a W or a loss.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:09 amWe got outshot worse.somuchyummy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:41 am i think 3-19 when we're outrebounded is a pretty damning stat. we apparently are ignoring it at our own peril.
we were outrebounded for most of the game by 10 - final mark was a minus 5 on the boards for us - in a 2 point loss. i think it matters. bigs were KAT, dieng, and then two SFs IMO playing PF. KAT's just coming back from being out for a long spell - his 5 boards didn't surprise me. dieng had a meh night with 5. roco had a good night with 10. but KBD had 1. a night with 77 total rebounds and our "bigs" got 21. that's not good. vonleh and bell (both with per 36s of 12 rebounds) stayed nailed to the bench. i think they are both healthy. KBD gets their minutes at the 4, and he's either an okay-rebounding SF being played out of position - or he's a really weak-rebounding PF. he's got a career per 36 of less than 6 rebounds. he's played 59 games for us so far - and has had 5 or more rebounds (high of 8) just 14 times. it's pretty apparent that's not his strength, but he continues to be asked to go down on the block and do it. and, like i've said, i think rebounds (possessions) matter.
Wolves FG% 45.5 (not terrible). 40/88
Pacers FG% 56.1 (utterly atrocious defense) 46/82
The teams shot almost identical from the ft line and each missed 4 fts.
Wolves total missed shots: 52
Wolves offensive rebounds: 7 (13%)
Pacers defensive rebounds: 37 (71%)
Pacers total missed shots: 40
Pacers offensive rebounds: 4 (10%)
Wolves defensive rebounds: 29 (72.5%)
Turnovers and steals were dead even. We shot 21fts and they shot 20. We got 6 more shots up. We actually got more possessions than they did!
So you can see that the wolves actually did a better job on both ends of the glass than the pacers. We got 13% of the offensive rebounds available to their 10%. We got 72.5% of the defensive rebounds available compared to their 71%. There are four missed shots by each team with no corresponding rebound. Presumably, these are either heaves at the end of quarters that are not rebounded or a missed ft on the front end of a pair or either of the first two when shooting 3fts.
Yet they still had the edge in aggregate rebounding (41-36) because they forced us into so many misses and made so many of their shots. You get a much higher rate of defensive rebounds available that you do offensive rebounds available so outshooting you’re opponent is a huge factor in outrebounding them.
The problem is shooting and defense. Not rebounding. Shoot better and play better defense and you won’t get outrebounded so often. We missed 12 more shots than them. That’s why we lost. The rebounds were split pretty evenly, with a slight edge to us, if you look at it as a percentage on each end of the floor (a more advanced way to look at it than just raw aggregate numbers).
This is certainly true for this particular game and I imagine this holds true for the season as well, but I haven’t crunched those numbers as thoroughly.
they scrapped last night though and i thought they just might pull it out in the last minute. i think they're a foot out of bounds away from doing it too.
it was an entertaining game last night anyways. as KAT gets up to speed and gets more minutes i'm more optimistic about them putting together a string of victories going forward.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
It is an indicator. But it's not the problem. The problem is the disparity between how well we shoot vs how well our opponent shoots. Last night, we actually shot okay. Above our average for sure. But we let them shoot the fucking lights out. Can't win that way. They took 6 fewer shots than us and made 12 more. You can't win like that.weimy froob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:17 pmyeah the stat could be showing how many poor shooting nights they've had-but whatever the reason it's a strong indicator of whether it's going to be a W or a loss.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:09 amWe got outshot worse.somuchyummy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:41 am i think 3-19 when we're outrebounded is a pretty damning stat. we apparently are ignoring it at our own peril.
we were outrebounded for most of the game by 10 - final mark was a minus 5 on the boards for us - in a 2 point loss. i think it matters. bigs were KAT, dieng, and then two SFs IMO playing PF. KAT's just coming back from being out for a long spell - his 5 boards didn't surprise me. dieng had a meh night with 5. roco had a good night with 10. but KBD had 1. a night with 77 total rebounds and our "bigs" got 21. that's not good. vonleh and bell (both with per 36s of 12 rebounds) stayed nailed to the bench. i think they are both healthy. KBD gets their minutes at the 4, and he's either an okay-rebounding SF being played out of position - or he's a really weak-rebounding PF. he's got a career per 36 of less than 6 rebounds. he's played 59 games for us so far - and has had 5 or more rebounds (high of 8) just 14 times. it's pretty apparent that's not his strength, but he continues to be asked to go down on the block and do it. and, like i've said, i think rebounds (possessions) matter.
Wolves FG% 45.5 (not terrible). 40/88
Pacers FG% 56.1 (utterly atrocious defense) 46/82
The teams shot almost identical from the ft line and each missed 4 fts.
Wolves total missed shots: 52
Wolves offensive rebounds: 7 (13%)
Pacers defensive rebounds: 37 (71%)
Pacers total missed shots: 40
Pacers offensive rebounds: 4 (10%)
Wolves defensive rebounds: 29 (72.5%)
Turnovers and steals were dead even. We shot 21fts and they shot 20. We got 6 more shots up. We actually got more possessions than they did!
So you can see that the wolves actually did a better job on both ends of the glass than the pacers. We got 13% of the offensive rebounds available to their 10%. We got 72.5% of the defensive rebounds available compared to their 71%. There are four missed shots by each team with no corresponding rebound. Presumably, these are either heaves at the end of quarters that are not rebounded or a missed ft on the front end of a pair or either of the first two when shooting 3fts.
Yet they still had the edge in aggregate rebounding (41-36) because they forced us into so many misses and made so many of their shots. You get a much higher rate of defensive rebounds available that you do offensive rebounds available so outshooting you’re opponent is a huge factor in outrebounding them.
The problem is shooting and defense. Not rebounding. Shoot better and play better defense and you won’t get outrebounded so often. We missed 12 more shots than them. That’s why we lost. The rebounds were split pretty evenly, with a slight edge to us, if you look at it as a percentage on each end of the floor (a more advanced way to look at it than just raw aggregate numbers).
This is certainly true for this particular game and I imagine this holds true for the season as well, but I haven’t crunched those numbers as thoroughly.
they scrapped last night though and i thought they just might pull it out in the last minute. i think they're a foot out of bounds away from doing it too.
it was an entertaining game last night anyways. as KAT gets up to speed and gets more minutes i'm more optimistic about them putting together a string of victories going forward.
”Fanaticism is always a sign of repressed doubt.”
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Okay, because I'm kinda snowed in today, I'll try to do the whole season and see what I get. This is fucking science right here! My hypothesis is above. This will be my attempt at a proof with a statistically significant sample (half a season).
Remember, there will be some missed shots without rebounds to account for from missed end-of-quarter heaves and missed FTs in dead-ball situations. I'll tally them for reference, but I'm not sure what to do with them, analytically.
Record: 15-26
Wolves FG%: .433 (1628/3763), 28th in the NBA
Opp FG%: .461 (1721/3736), 17th in the NBA
Wolves FT%: .758 (789/1041), 22nd in NBA
OPP FT%: .787 (796/1011, 25th in the NBA
Wolves Total Missed Shots: 2.391
Wolves Total Offensive Rebounds: 457 (19.11%)
Opp Total Defensive Rebounds: 1539 (64.36%)
Opp total Missed Shots: 2,230
Opp Total Offensive Rebounds: 441 (19.78%)
Wolves Total Defensive Rebounds: 1436 (64.39%)
So what this looks like to me is that we're a pretty average rebounding team. We get slightly more defensive rebounds, as a percentage, than our opponents to and slightly fewer offensive rebounds.
Again, this isn't perfect because there are a couple hundred missed shots without rebounds out there (end of quarter or clock heaves, loose ball fouls on rebound situations resulting in no rebound being recorded, missed FTs in dead ball situations, etc.) that affect these numbers. But that totals out to 395 such situations for us (9.6/game) and 353 for them (8.6/game). I don't think that dramatically alters my forthcoming conclusion.
We've taken 27 more shots than our opponents. We've taken 30 more FTs (about 15 possessions). That's 42 more scoring attempts. Yet we're outscored 4697-4567. That's a net (-130) points.
And shooting disparity is the major culprit.
2pt FG%:
Wolves - .511
Opponents - .516
3pt FG%
Wolves - .326
Opponents - .356
FT%
Wolves - .758
Opponents - .787
eFG%
Wolves - .502
Opponents - .522
We consistently get beat in all four major shooting categories. You can't win that way and it cascades down to other issues. Start outshooting our opponents and suddenly our rebounding disparity will equalize.
We have a shooting/defense problem, not a rebounding problem.
Remember, there will be some missed shots without rebounds to account for from missed end-of-quarter heaves and missed FTs in dead-ball situations. I'll tally them for reference, but I'm not sure what to do with them, analytically.
Record: 15-26
Wolves FG%: .433 (1628/3763), 28th in the NBA
Opp FG%: .461 (1721/3736), 17th in the NBA
Wolves FT%: .758 (789/1041), 22nd in NBA
OPP FT%: .787 (796/1011, 25th in the NBA
Wolves Total Missed Shots: 2.391
Wolves Total Offensive Rebounds: 457 (19.11%)
Opp Total Defensive Rebounds: 1539 (64.36%)
Opp total Missed Shots: 2,230
Opp Total Offensive Rebounds: 441 (19.78%)
Wolves Total Defensive Rebounds: 1436 (64.39%)
So what this looks like to me is that we're a pretty average rebounding team. We get slightly more defensive rebounds, as a percentage, than our opponents to and slightly fewer offensive rebounds.
Again, this isn't perfect because there are a couple hundred missed shots without rebounds out there (end of quarter or clock heaves, loose ball fouls on rebound situations resulting in no rebound being recorded, missed FTs in dead ball situations, etc.) that affect these numbers. But that totals out to 395 such situations for us (9.6/game) and 353 for them (8.6/game). I don't think that dramatically alters my forthcoming conclusion.
We've taken 27 more shots than our opponents. We've taken 30 more FTs (about 15 possessions). That's 42 more scoring attempts. Yet we're outscored 4697-4567. That's a net (-130) points.
And shooting disparity is the major culprit.
2pt FG%:
Wolves - .511
Opponents - .516
3pt FG%
Wolves - .326
Opponents - .356
FT%
Wolves - .758
Opponents - .787
eFG%
Wolves - .502
Opponents - .522
We consistently get beat in all four major shooting categories. You can't win that way and it cascades down to other issues. Start outshooting our opponents and suddenly our rebounding disparity will equalize.
We have a shooting/defense problem, not a rebounding problem.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
He wouldn’t play on this roster because we don’t know how to use him.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
yeah-take away the t-wolves 0-7 start and they shot the ball well. i think the team is going to be playing some pretty good basketball in the weeks ahead if they don't suffer any injuries-and you'll see the only real stat that matters pick up-the numbers in the victory column.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:31 pmIt is an indicator. But it's not the problem. The problem is the disparity between how well we shoot vs how well our opponent shoots. Last night, we actually shot okay. Above our average for sure. But we let them shoot the fucking lights out. Can't win that way. They took 6 fewer shots than us and made 12 more. You can't win like that.weimy froob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:17 pmyeah the stat could be showing how many poor shooting nights they've had-but whatever the reason it's a strong indicator of whether it's going to be a W or a loss.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:09 am
We got outshot worse.
Wolves FG% 45.5 (not terrible). 40/88
Pacers FG% 56.1 (utterly atrocious defense) 46/82
The teams shot almost identical from the ft line and each missed 4 fts.
Wolves total missed shots: 52
Wolves offensive rebounds: 7 (13%)
Pacers defensive rebounds: 37 (71%)
Pacers total missed shots: 40
Pacers offensive rebounds: 4 (10%)
Wolves defensive rebounds: 29 (72.5%)
Turnovers and steals were dead even. We shot 21fts and they shot 20. We got 6 more shots up. We actually got more possessions than they did!
So you can see that the wolves actually did a better job on both ends of the glass than the pacers. We got 13% of the offensive rebounds available to their 10%. We got 72.5% of the defensive rebounds available compared to their 71%. There are four missed shots by each team with no corresponding rebound. Presumably, these are either heaves at the end of quarters that are not rebounded or a missed ft on the front end of a pair or either of the first two when shooting 3fts.
Yet they still had the edge in aggregate rebounding (41-36) because they forced us into so many misses and made so many of their shots. You get a much higher rate of defensive rebounds available that you do offensive rebounds available so outshooting you’re opponent is a huge factor in outrebounding them.
The problem is shooting and defense. Not rebounding. Shoot better and play better defense and you won’t get outrebounded so often. We missed 12 more shots than them. That’s why we lost. The rebounds were split pretty evenly, with a slight edge to us, if you look at it as a percentage on each end of the floor (a more advanced way to look at it than just raw aggregate numbers).
This is certainly true for this particular game and I imagine this holds true for the season as well, but I haven’t crunched those numbers as thoroughly.
they scrapped last night though and i thought they just might pull it out in the last minute. i think they're a foot out of bounds away from doing it too.
it was an entertaining game last night anyways. as KAT gets up to speed and gets more minutes i'm more optimistic about them putting together a string of victories going forward.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
If Crabbe can shoot like he has in his career and not like he has this year, he’ll help. Towns getting lathered up again will help.weimy froob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:22 pmyeah-take away the t-wolves 0-7 start and they shot the ball well. i think the team is going to be playing some pretty good basketball in the weeks ahead if they don't suffer any injuries-and you'll see the only real stat that matters pick up-the numbers in the victory column.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:31 pmIt is an indicator. But it's not the problem. The problem is the disparity between how well we shoot vs how well our opponent shoots. Last night, we actually shot okay. Above our average for sure. But we let them shoot the fucking lights out. Can't win that way. They took 6 fewer shots than us and made 12 more. You can't win like that.weimy froob wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:17 pm
yeah the stat could be showing how many poor shooting nights they've had-but whatever the reason it's a strong indicator of whether it's going to be a W or a loss.
they scrapped last night though and i thought they just might pull it out in the last minute. i think they're a foot out of bounds away from doing it too.
it was an entertaining game last night anyways. as KAT gets up to speed and gets more minutes i'm more optimistic about them putting together a string of victories going forward.
But shooting better is only half the equation. We have to force the other team to shoot worse. 56% last night allowed. That’s a losing effort. Over 82 games, you’ll run into nights where the other guy is just hot and there isn’t a lot you can do. Maybe that was the case yesterday, but that sure seems to happen to us more than other teams, doesn’t it?
Shooting disparity is the #1 stat to look at in the nba these days. It’s a shooting league.
Also, I should edit an error in my above post. They shot 6 fewer shots than us and made 6 more, not 12 more. We nearly made that up by hitting 9 more 3s than they did. Our eFG% disparity was likely not as stark last night as the overall FG% disparity. But it was enough to lose a close game.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Also, teams that shoot a lot of threes (like us) are generally going to miss more shots than teams that shoot more 2s. These missed shots lead to more defensive rebounds (easier to get than offensive rebounds) for opponents. Ergo, teams that shoot more 3s than their opponents will likely get outrebounded frequently.
In a 3pt happy league, rebounding is still important, but how you judge rebounding needs to change. I think you need to look at rebound percentages against (your off rebound % vs their off rebound % and your def rebound % vs their def rebound %).
If you look at it this way, the wolves are still not a great rebounding team, but it’s not the critical weakness that it appears in the aggregate.
The shooting disparity is a critical weakness and needs to improve.
In a 3pt happy league, rebounding is still important, but how you judge rebounding needs to change. I think you need to look at rebound percentages against (your off rebound % vs their off rebound % and your def rebound % vs their def rebound %).
If you look at it this way, the wolves are still not a great rebounding team, but it’s not the critical weakness that it appears in the aggregate.
The shooting disparity is a critical weakness and needs to improve.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
It's a symptom not the problem?Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:51 amAgreed. But I think the stat is at least in part a symptom of the problem and not the problem itself.somuchyummy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:41 am i think 3-19 when we're outrebounded is a pretty damning stat.
We are a slightly below average team when it comes to forcing misses. Our fg% against is 17th in the league. So we have slightly less opportunities for defensive rebounds than the average team.
We are a terrible shooting team. 28th in the league in fg%. This gives our opponents a lot of extra chances at defensive rebounds. We are 5th in the league in offensive rebounding. Probably not because we’re a great offensive rebounding team, rather we are such a poor shooting team that we have more chances to rebound offensively than most teams. We probably are a below average rebounding team overall. But I postulate that our atrocious shooting is more a factor in our losing than our bad rebounding. Our atrocious shooting contributes to losing and being out rebounded. Bad shooting is the disease. Bad rebounding and losing are the symptoms.
If we shot better, there wouldn’t be so many chances for other teams to defensively rebound and we’d probably not get out rebounded as often. And we’d probably win more.
OK. Getting outrebounded because we play idiot small ball is the symptom, and the disease is being 16 games under .500 in 22 fucking games
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
More important than 3 and 19. Yes you do appear to need help with stats.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Coincidence coincidence........Thrillkill wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:49 pmMore important than 3 and 19. Yes you do appear to need help with stats.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
So I went through all 42 games we've played this year so far. I compared eFG% of us and our opponents. Here are the results:
We had a better eFG% than our opponents in 16 of our 42 games. In those 16 games, we are 13-3.
We had a worse eFG% than our opponents in 26 games. We are 2-24 in those games.
/thread.
We had a better eFG% than our opponents in 16 of our 42 games. In those 16 games, we are 13-3.
We had a worse eFG% than our opponents in 26 games. We are 2-24 in those games.
/thread.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Kinda sounds like a make or miss league.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:39 pm So I went through all 42 games we've played this year so far. I compared eFG% of us and our opponents. Here are the results:
We had a better eFG% than our opponents in 16 of our 42 games. In those 16 games, we are 13-3.
We had a worse eFG% than our opponents in 26 games. We are 2-24 in those games.
/thread.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Kinda exactly, yeah.witljon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:24 pmKinda sounds like a make or miss league.Beef Supreme wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:39 pm So I went through all 42 games we've played this year so far. I compared eFG% of us and our opponents. Here are the results:
We had a better eFG% than our opponents in 16 of our 42 games. In those 16 games, we are 13-3.
We had a worse eFG% than our opponents in 26 games. We are 2-24 in those games.
/thread.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
Outshot again. Lost again.
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Re: Wolves 3-19 when out rebounded
and outrebounded again by 12.
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