Next moves for the Wolves: Trade, draft and front-office decisions (ESPN+ Request)

[memyworld]

Next moves for the Wolves: Trade, draft and front-office decisions

Bobby Marks | ESPN | Thursday, March 21 at 7:20 AM CT

No team went through as much turmoil as the Minnesota Timberwolves this season.

Coming off a playoff appearance in 2017-18, All-Star Jimmy Butler asked to be traded before training camp even began, and head coach Tom Thibodeau was fired in early January.

With the Wolves now out of the West postseason race, let's look ahead to the big free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing Minnesota this offseason.

Please share the rest if you subscribe.

[Thrillkill]

Here. I'll give you what will actually happen.

Coach stays for low money

GM stays for low money

All vet FA's leave unless they take the min.

Every MLE FA laughs in our faces.

Teague stays and returns to his old for so he can get a big deal elsewhere. We fail to move him at the deadline because Taylor can't make himself take back a nickle in the deal

Taylor sells the 2nd (don't bet against another trade down fest either) Claims we need the money to buy FA's. Then claims he lost 30 mil and can't understand why people don't come to games. Then we enter the season with 2 open roster spots for "FLEXIBILITY" Stupid old fucker.

[qrocks]

Next moves for the Wolves: Trade, draft and front-office decisions

Bobby Marks | ESPN | Thursday, March 21 at 7:20 AM CT

No team went through as much turmoil as the Minnesota Timberwolves this season.


Please share the rest if you subscribe.

The Lakers roster had a pretty tortured season. Knowing Lebron wants you out of Tinsletown is worse than Jimmy Buckets beating the starters in a pre-season scrimmage.

That said, the Wolves pains were mostly self-inflicted.

[bri]

Finding stability at head coach
This is not what ownership envisioned when Thibodeau was hired in 2016. Instead of building off a playoff appearance, Minnesota is heading to the lottery for the 15th time in 16 years and is once again at a crossroads with its basketball operations department.

Owner Glen Taylor and president Ethan Casson have two choices for the direction of this franchise:

1. Hire a new GM, and let that person decide the fate of interim head coach Ryan Saunders.

Saunders has had a 30-game job audition since taking over in early January, with these results:

13-18 record; all games played without Robert Covington (No. 1 small forward in ESPN's real-plus minus in 2017-18)

Starting point guard Jeff Teague missed 13 games

No. 12 in offensive efficiency (No. 15 under Thibodeau)

No. 24 in defensive efficiency (No. 17 with Tom Thibodeau)

Ownership cannot afford to name Saunders head coach only to let him go a year from now. The Phoenix Suns went that direction with Earl Watson, as they fired the former interim 19 months later, after he put together a 24-61 record.

2. Remove Saunders' interim tag without a GM in place.

This is an unlikely result. A new GM will want full authority on the hiring of a head coach.

Explore the trade value of Jeff Teague
The phrase "long-term projection" is used commonly within NBA front offices. It's part of a two-fold, daily exercise: Analyze the roster over a three-year window, and identify financial issues.

It is the same exercise that set the wheels in motion for the Utah Jazz to acquire Ricky Rubio from Minnesota before the start of free agency in 2017. Instead of overpaying free agent George Hill or finding a cheap replacement, Utah picked up Rubio on a team-friendly deal.

Now, two things stick out on the Wolves' cap sheet for 2020-21: $108 million in committed salary and Teague's free agency (if he picks up his player option this year). Considering that Teague is unlikely to be brought back, Minnesota would have only the $10 million midlevel exception to replace him at PG. Of course, that could change if the Wolves draft a guard in the lottery (Darius Garland, for example) or retain Tyus Jones and he develops into a full-time starter.

Define a role for Andrew Wiggins
It's Minnesota, so we have to talk Wiggins. The former No. 1 overall pick is trending in the wrong direction. But instead of breaking down why Wiggins' on-court production has not lived up to expectations, the Wolves need to discuss his future role as a starter or bench player this offseason.

Optics suggest that moving Wiggins to the bench would destroy his trade value or maybe his confidence. However, his max contract makes finding a trade partner unrealistic right now anyway. The bloated contracts from the 2016 free-agent class are set to expire after this season. While Wiggins would be an upgrade in some situations, the remaining money left on his deal won't be desirable to teams that finally are about to open up cap space.

Derrick Rose: Priority or luxury?
Back in late October after a win against the Los Angeles Lakers, I scribbled on a notepad: Does Derrick Rose belong in the NBA? That was after a 4-for-16 shooting performance. Two nights later, Rose dropped 50 points. That career high set in motion his most efficient season since he won MVP.

Derrick Rose: MVP Season Vs. 2018-19
18-19 10-11
GP 51 81
MPG 27.3 37.4
PPG 18.0 25.0
FG% 48.2 44.5
3P% 37.0 33.2
RPG 2.7 3.7
APG 4.3 6.0
ORTG 114.5 112.9
Yes, Rose is eight years older and playing 10 fewer minutes per game, but the guard accomplished a major goal: He's no longer a minimum-contract player heading into free agency. Rose has gone from an August signing to an early-July priority, either to the Timberwolves or a playoff team looking for depth off the bench.

Minnesota can sign Rose to a contract that starts at $5 million (early Bird exception), use most of its $9.2 million midlevel on a free agent and still sign two minimum contracts while staying under the luxury tax.

Under contract in 2019-20
Wolves' Projected Cap Sheet
PLAYER 2019-20 SALARY
1. Andrew Wiggins $27,504,630
2. Karl-Anthony Towns $27,250,000
3. Jeff Teague $19,000,000
4. Gorgui Dieng $16,229,213
5. Robert Covington $11,301,219
6. Dario Saric $3,481,986
7. Josh Okogie $2,530,680
8. Keita Bates-Diop $1,416,852
9. Cameron Reynolds (non-guaranteed) $1,416,852
10. First-rounder (own) (first-round hold) $3,826,920
11. Taj Gibson1 (free-agent hold) $18,200,000
12. Jerryd Bayless2 (free-agent hold) $16,294,240
13. Tyus Jones3 (free-agent hold) $7,332,159
14. Anthony Tolliver4 (free-agent hold) $6,900,000
15. Derrick Rose1 (free-agent hold) $1,618,486
16. Luol Deng4 (free-agent hold) $1,618,486
17. Jared Terrell5 (free-agent hold) $1,443,842
18. C.J. Williams5 (free-agent hold) $1,443,842
Cole Aldrich (waiver) $685,340
Total $169.4 million
Luxury tax $132.0 million
1. Early Bird
2. Bird
3. Restricted Bird
4. Non-Bird
5. Restricted non-Bird
The Timberwolves are one of those in-between teams -- not under the salary cap and not pressed against the luxury tax. Remove all their free-agent holds (except for their first-round pick), and they're left with nine players under contract and $113 million in committed salary. (That figure will increase to $118 million if Karl-Anthony Towns earns All-NBA honors).

While the team will have the $9.2 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions available, using both and re-signing Jones would push the Wolves into the tax. Barring a roster overhaul, expect the lottery pick to be the big offseason addition.

Wolves' Projected Depth Chart
PG SG SF PF C
J. Teague (P) A. Wiggins R. Covington D. Saric K. Towns
J. Okogie C. Reynolds (NG) K. Bates-Diop G. Dieng
P = player option
NG = non-guaranteed

Resources available to build the roster:

The lottery

Cash to buy draft picks

Cap exceptions (midlevel, biannual)

Own free agents

Dates to watch
• The announcement of the All-NBA teams in May will have financial consequences for Towns and the Timberwolves. As part of his October extension, Towns' contract will increase from $158 million (25 percent of the cap) to $189 million (30 percent of the cap) if he makes any of the three All-NBA teams:

Impact On Towns' Contract
YEAR CURRENT IF ALL-NBA
2019-20 $27.25 $32.70
2020-21 $29.43 $35.31
2021-22 $31.61 $37.93
2022-23 $33.79 $40.54
2023-24 $35.97 $43.16
Salary figures in millions

• The Timberwolves will have until June 30 to extend a $3.5 million qualifying offer for Jones. Jones ranks No. 6 among all backup PGs in ESPN's real plus-minus and is No. 9 among free-agent PGs. Expect him to get the offer.

• Teague has a June 29 date to exercise his $19 million option for next year. Before the start of the season, Teague had missed 24 games in his nine-year career. This season, the guard has sat out 25 games with various injuries. Although the free-agent market for point guards is average at best, it likely would take Teague two years to recoup the $19 million that he'd be leaving on the table. It's likely that he exercises the option, and the Timberwolves make him available in trade talks.

• Cam Reynolds is on a $1.4 million non-guaranteed contract with protections that will increase to $50K if he is not waived by Aug. 1, with an additional $50K added if he is not waived by Oct. 1.

Restrictions
• Both Wiggins and Towns were signed to Designated Rookie Extensions (DRE). As a result, the Timberwolves cannot acquire another player on a DRE while either player is under contract.

Here's a list of players who were signed with the DRE:

Anthony Davis

Joel Embiid

Devin Booker

Damian Lillard

Kyrie Irving

John Wall

Irving and Wall will have the restricted tag lifted on July 1.

• Towns has a poison-pill restriction in his contract that will expire on June 30. For trade purposes, Towns' $7.8 million salary counts as outgoing salary, and $27.6 million (the average of both contracts) counts as incoming salary.

• Reynolds has a three-month signing restriction and cannot be traded until May 19.

Extension candidates
The Wolves have taken an aggressive approach with rookie extensions, including Towns and Wiggins. Will they take the same approach with Dario Saric?

Here are the factors that Minnesota has to weigh:

Was Saric's inconsistent production this season the result of the midseason trade, a lack of familiarity with his role (alternating between starting and coming off the bench) or playing for three coaches in seven months?

Should a full season (2019-20) be used as a true evaluation with a possible new head coach and front office?

What impact do a below-average free-agent class and cap spike ($118 million) in 2020 have? Saric could go from a $14 million player to $18-20 million if he has a strong season.

Is cap flexibility in 2020 a priority? Saric will have a $10.4 million free-agent hold, and Minnesota should plan on finding a PG.

Teague and Gorgui Dieng are also extension-eligible.

The draft assets
After finding value with Josh Okogie at pick No. 20 last year, Minnesota returns to the lottery for help.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Minnesota picking in 2019:

No. 12 (own): Kevin Porter Jr. | SG/SF | USC

The Timberwolves have all their future first- and second-round picks (besides this year's second-rounder)

[memyworld]

While the team will have the $9.2 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions available, using both and re-signing Jones would push the Wolves into the tax. Barring a roster overhaul, expect the lottery pick to be the big offseason addition

Thanks for posting! When it comes to the roster, this is the most important section as people go nuts with offseason expectations.

[Small Hands]

While the team will have the $9.2 million midlevel and $3.6 million biannual exceptions available, using both and re-signing Jones would push the Wolves into the tax. Barring a roster overhaul, expect the lottery pick to be the big offseason addition

Thanks for posting! When it comes to the roster, this is the most important section as people go nuts with offseason expectations.

Unless they use their lotto pick to draft their PG of the future and let Tyus walk.

[Catalyst]

If Saunders stays as coach, I believe Tyus stays. Dario will probably get extended, seeing Taylor wanted him as a Starter. I am interested in what Chicago Vets stay.

[flexbuffchest]

If Saunders stays as coach, I believe Tyus stays. Dario will probably get extended, seeing Taylor wanted him as a Starter. I am interested in what Chicago Vets stay.

Whoah

Nice to see you back

[witljon]

If Saunders stays as coach, I believe Tyus stays. Dario will probably get extended, seeing Taylor wanted him as a Starter. I am interested in what Chicago Vets stay.

I think Rose, Gibson, Deng, Tyus, Tolliver, and Bayless are all probably gone.
And for most of them, it'l be because the Wolves don't want em.

......unless they lower their asking price.

[Beef Supreme]

If Saunders stays as coach, I believe Tyus stays. Dario will probably get extended, seeing Taylor wanted him as a Starter. I am interested in what Chicago Vets stay.

Whoah

Nice to see you back

+1

[LordNu]

Welcome back Cat!

[somuchyummy]

If Saunders stays as coach, I believe Tyus stays. Dario will probably get extended, seeing Taylor wanted him as a Starter. I am interested in what Chicago Vets stay.

I think Rose, Gibson, Deng, Tyus, Tolliver, and Bayless are all probably gone.
And for most of them, it'l be because the Wolves don't want em.

......unless they lower their asking price.

agree with you on the projected exodus. probably can toss in terrell and williams as well. caveats to that: i can see glen wanting to figure out a way to resign both rose and tyus, although it just would further kluge up a PG situation assuming we're trying to snag one in the draft as well. i would welcome deng back. think he could be had cheap, looked good when he got in this year, and would be about perfect as a locker room guy, third SF behind cov and KBD. but yeah, we're going to have some new faces on the team this yaar fer sure.

[LordNu]

Rose is worth the money for the side. They have been using him a hell of a lot in marketing, he makes them a bundle in jersey sales I bet.

[somuchyummy]

i know this officially qualifies as "way too soon" and i feel like an absolute vulture for asking: but in the wake of last night's injury, anyone think portland might be interested in gorgui in the offseason?

[qrocks]

i know this officially qualifies as "way too soon" and i feel like an absolute vulture for asking: but in the wake of last night's injury, anyone think portland might be interested in gorgui in the offseason?

I'm playing against Nuric in my fantasy basketball semis right now. I way feel bad for him even though it is going to help my fantasy team.

These end-of-year injuries suck because they sort of ruin two seasons for the player and the team. Nuric was doing really well for them this year. He is a big loss for a good team.

[somuchyummy]

for being a question mark when he signed with the blazers, he's been huge. this is a big loss for them. i've heard double compound fracture - not sure if they've found any other knee or ankle tears as well.

i threw the gorgui thing out there because he's a solid backup - and despite the loss of nurkic, portland is still a viable team. they aren't really in a spot to throw away any seasons. right now their bigs are kanter, collins, leonard and skal - the last three i mentioned are best as PFs. i don't think they'll be interested in gorgs - even though he could provide some cover for them. but A) his contract is too big and B) the blazers have one draft pick this year, early 20s - so it's concievable they could have their pick of a number of bigs - jontay porter, jaxson hayes, goga bitazde, daniel gafford, charles bassey, naz reid. sinking that kind of salary commitment to a guy like gorgs would be a fringey desperation move - and i don't think the blazers are quite there yet. unless they're trying to shed some salary as well - evan turner $18M and meyers leonard $12M.

[jodaman01]

Rose is worth the money for the side. They have been using him a hell of a lot in marketing, he makes them a bundle in jersey sales I bet.

I think Taylor likes him a lot. He handled the Thibbs/Butler situation like a leader and I’m sure Taylor will try sign him for that alone, plus the fans like him.

He is to injury prone and I don’t think he can really be counted on because of it. When he isn’t hitting shots, he is not a good player because he is not great at involving other players. When he’s hitting shots, he’s a great off the bench asset.

Him and Taj coming in off the bench is pretty nice for this Team.

Also, the Nurkic news sucks. Feel bad for the Blazers, but after they screwed us for a wounded Webster - it’s hard to feel to bad for them.

GO WOLVES!!

[TrueBlue]

If Saunders stays as coach, I believe Tyus stays. Dario will probably get extended, seeing Taylor wanted him as a Starter. I am interested in what Chicago Vets stay.

Hi Cat!!

[somuchyummy]

Rose is worth the money for the side. They have been using him a hell of a lot in marketing, he makes them a bundle in jersey sales I bet.

I think Taylor likes him a lot. He handled the Thibbs/Butler situation like a leader and I’m sure Taylor will try sign him for that alone, plus the fans like him.

He is to injury prone and I don’t think he can really be counted on because of it. When he isn’t hitting shots, he is not a good player because he is not great at involving other players. When he’s hitting shots, he’s a great off the bench asset.

Him and Taj coming in off the bench is pretty nice for this Team.

Also, the Nurkic news sucks. Feel bad for the Blazers, but after they screwed us for a wounded Webster - it’s hard to feel to bad for them.

GO WOLVES!!

still not a big fan of resigning rose - even if we're able to do it without affecting the cap. i think he's looking for multiple years - and we've always caved in that sort of situation - so i see it as a big possibility that we'd be entering another kevin martin kind of situation. paying a bunch of cash to a guy who is often rehabbing his latest owie. more than that though - i'm honestly not a big fan of rose on the court. yes, he's dynamic and yes he single-handedly won some games for us this year. but it's always the derrick rose show. if he's coming off the bench, that means that guys like okogie and KBD and probably our new draft pick(s) aren't exactly "developing" - what they're doing on O is watching derrick dribble and shoot. i just think there have got to be better options to help the entire team move forward.

[kilkenny]

Where has Cat been hiding out these past couple years?

[TrueBlue]

Where has Cat been hiding out these past couple years?

she was at the orig Abe created site, then I think someone was being an asshole and she took off. Can't quite recall who, but i think the mods fixed the situation.

[flexbuffchest]

i know this officially qualifies as "way too soon" and i feel like an absolute vulture for asking: but in the wake of last night's injury, anyone think portland might be interested in gorgui in the offseason?

Probably not. Huge contract and now they can give Zach Collins more minutes.

[flexbuffchest]

Where has Cat been hiding out these past couple years?

she was at the orig Abe created site, then I think someone was being an asshole and she took off. Can't quite recall who, but i think the mods fixed the situation.

It was Rasho...and he went full Rasho on her.

[kilkenny]

Where has Cat been hiding out these past couple years?

she was at the orig Abe created site, then I think someone was being an asshole and she took off. Can't quite recall who, but i think the mods fixed the situation.

It was Rasho...and he went full Rasho on her.

I remember that. But where has she been hanging out since? RealGM?

[Catalyst]

she was at the orig Abe created site, then I think someone was being an asshole and she took off. Can't quite recall who, but i think the mods fixed the situation.

It was Rasho...and he went full Rasho on her.

I remember that. But where has she been hanging out since? RealGM?

I have been on facebook...still am. In fact a group of is are going to the April 5th game together.
https://m.facebook.com/groups/551463058 ... rce=result

[boxter432]

HI CAT

[Catalyst]

Hi all thanks for the welcome...sorry for the thread hijack.

[witljon]

Hi all thanks for the welcome...sorry for the thread hijack.

Don't be sorry, its like a breath of fresh air after all the threads that get hijacked with Wiggins complaints.

[somuchyummy]

Captain Obvious question here, but i guess i'm not sure of the answer or else i wouldn't ask: does trading open up again AFTER this year's contracts expire? meaning, do we actually have zero trade value at this point for taj, tolly, deng, rose, bayless, jones, terrell, and williams?

[UnFadeable21]

Captain Obvious question here, but i guess i'm not sure of the answer or else i wouldn't ask: does trading open up again AFTER this year's contracts expire? meaning, do we actually have zero trade value at this point for taj, tolly, deng, rose, bayless, jones, terrell, and williams?

After the season, all those guys become UFA except Tyus. Unrestricted Free Agent, we no longer own their rights and they can move on without any restrictions.

Tyus is a RFA, restricted free agent. He may get a contract offer from any team but the wolves have the right to match.

So no, you cannot trade any of them after the season.