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NBA proposes making draft age 18!

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Bob Wiley
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NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by Bob Wiley »

Finally!!

If you are good enough, you are old enough. This will help college basketball too.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by RubeTube »

This rule is a hard one to figure out.

I don't like the fact that a kid who has no intentions of going to college, forced and using resources that the school could use on someone who is actually there to learn.

I HATE this for the NBA but I already think the product stinks right now so whatever. It's been stated before but so many of these guy's are not ready even the way they have it set now.
Year's of watching "potential" stars learn and be payed handsomely before they have proven anything. This isn't good for the NBA at all imo.

I'm someone who wanted a two year limit before coming out but I do get that these guy's shoukd have the choice.
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Bob Wiley
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by Bob Wiley »

Sergeant Rubetube wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:36 am This rule is a hard one to figure out.

I don't like the fact that a kid who has no intentions of going to college, forced and using resources that the school could use on someone who is actually there to learn.

I HATE this for the NBA but I already think the product stinks right now so whatever. It's been stated before but so many of these guy's are not ready even the way they have it set now.
Year's of watching "potential" stars learn and be payed handsomely before they have proven anything. This isn't good for the NBA at all imo.

I'm someone who wanted a two year limit before coming out but I do get that these guy's shoukd have the choice.
Kids can get drafted, go to the G league, earn and learn.
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jffl_commish
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by jffl_commish »

Each team should have their own g-league team (do they already?), because most of the kids that abuse this will never sniff the NBA.
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Moses Scurry
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by Moses Scurry »

It was a rule to save GM's from themselves, no other reason, period. They went through that whole era after drafting Garnett when teams started drafting high school players and they ended up sucking.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by OliverMiller »

jffl_commish wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:22 am Each team should have their own g-league team (do they already?), because most of the kids that abuse this will never sniff the NBA.
It's damn near every team now. A couple thoughts:

1. I think players should be able to enter after high school. Players like Zion are ready to contribute in the NBA. Hell, recent rookies have proven that they could contribute early (Simmons, Tatum, KAT, etc.).

2. The NCAA is a joke. Sure for the 5th man through 15th man on college teams it is a privilege to play with the benefits they receive. For the top tier? No. Hell no. It's ridiculous that they couldn't even have a job if they wanted to. Letting them profit off of their likeness would be a big step. Let Zion be in commercials, sell shirts, etc.

3. This would really help the league boost the G league. Obviously players like Zion would be on the NBA team, but it'd provide a more realistic chance for teams to develop these players. The only real benefit for players in college is their bodies mature. They learn next to nothing from a fundamental stand point (Kentucky, Duke, anywhere).
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by Oriole81 »

My question is, how much are these guys ACTUALLY contributing?

The absolute busts are a whole other thing, but how about the top prospects that play well but take their whole rookie contract before you actually know what you8 have with them and they start becoming plus contributors to an actual winning culture?

I hate that we were forced to hitch our wagons to Wiggins and Towns and not really know if they can make us championship contenders until we're forced to offer them huge extensions. We obviously jumped the gun on the Wiggins extension, but had we waited another year and let him go into restricted FA, he'd probably still cost us well over $100 million because some team would try to steal him away.
Towns is only now starting to play defense, and we still don't know if he can be a true #1 on a championship team, but yet we still had to pay him close to $200M.
And these were supposed to be two of the most highly touted prospects in a long time; like we were blessed to get these guys.

Washington got 3 top 3 picks back to back to back and all have become good to great players, but it's clear they just weren't going to be good enough to become championship contenders after stalling multiple years in the playoffs, and after each has their $100 million extension. You can't win when paying $100+ million to those 3, but you don't know what you actually have with them until they had to bite the bullet.

Ben Simmons is obviously a great individual player, but the guy literally did nothing for 2 whole years because he didn't want to play college ball and "redshirted" his first year in Philly, and still has no jump shot. Like it's crazy that with all that free time he didn't develop a jumper, and Philly will have to pay him a max deal even if they continue to plateau in the playoffs.

I'd like to argue that just because you can "play" as a 19 year old in the league doesn't count for enough, because you can't have a league that is so starved for top end, championship level talent, but at the same time have a draft that is so based on potential and praying that these guys become the best version of themselves over a 2, 3, 4 year development period.

I'll preface this with the fact that I too hate the NCAA and am a complete "free market" guy so I absolutely understand the players stances on wanted to get into the league and I have no interest in helping the NCAA, but ultimately the owners are the gatekeepers to this league and I think they're far better served forcing these players to become more well rounded before they should be eligible.
I don't know how we get there, but that's not my job to have an answer either, it's theirs.
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A Iverson, K Irving
J Havlicek, M Ginobili, M Richmond
D Wilkins, B Bowen
T Duncan, B McAdoo
H Olajuwon, W Unseld, A Sabonis
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by OliverMiller »

Oriole81 wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 12:31 pm My question is, how much are these guys ACTUALLY contributing?

The absolute busts are a whole other thing, but how about the top prospects that play well but take their whole rookie contract before you actually know what you8 have with them and they start becoming plus contributors to an actual winning culture?

I hate that we were forced to hitch our wagons to Wiggins and Towns and not really know if they can make us championship contenders until we're forced to offer them huge extensions. We obviously jumped the gun on the Wiggins extension, but had we waited another year and let him go into restricted FA, he'd probably still cost us well over $100 million because some team would try to steal him away.
Towns is only now starting to play defense, and we still don't know if he can be a true #1 on a championship team, but yet we still had to pay him close to $200M.
And these were supposed to be two of the most highly touted prospects in a long time; like we were blessed to get these guys.

Washington got 3 top 3 picks back to back to back and all have become good to great players, but it's clear they just weren't going to be good enough to become championship contenders after stalling multiple years in the playoffs, and after each has their $100 million extension. You can't win when paying $100+ million to those 3, but you don't know what you actually have with them until they had to bite the bullet.

Ben Simmons is obviously a great individual player, but the guy literally did nothing for 2 whole years because he didn't want to play college ball and "redshirted" his first year in Philly, and still has no jump shot. Like it's crazy that with all that free time he didn't develop a jumper, and Philly will have to pay him a max deal even if they continue to plateau in the playoffs.

I'd like to argue that just because you can "play" as a 19 year old in the league doesn't count for enough, because you can't have a league that is so starved for top end, championship level talent, but at the same time have a draft that is so based on potential and praying that these guys become the best version of themselves over a 2, 3, 4 year development period.

I'll preface this with the fact that I too hate the NCAA and am a complete "free market" guy so I absolutely understand the players stances on wanted to get into the league and I have no interest in helping the NCAA, but ultimately the owners are the gatekeepers to this league and I think they're far better served forcing these players to become more well rounded before they should be eligible.
I don't know how we get there, but that's not my job to have an answer either, it's theirs.
Not sure Washington is the best example since they made the obvious choice each year.

Hell, the Wolves aren't a good example either since KAT is obviously someone you max and Wiggins was obviously someone you don't max.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by KevinBaconIsNotMyHero »

Sergeant Rubetube wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:36 am This rule is a hard one to figure out.

I don't like the fact that a kid who has no intentions of going to college, forced and using resources that the school could use on someone who is actually there to learn.

I HATE this for the NBA but I already think the product stinks right now so whatever. It's been stated before but so many of these guy's are not ready even the way they have it set now.
Year's of watching "potential" stars learn and be payed handsomely before they have proven anything. This isn't good for the NBA at all imo.

I'm someone who wanted a two year limit before coming out but I do get that these guy's shoukd have the choice.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by whiskerbiscuit »

I think they should do it like the NHL and college hockey where you can be drafted and still play in college as property of a pro team.

Is anybody really ready to play in the NBA at 18 or 19?

It would keep the college game fresh and still allow a pro team to draft a top talent out of HS.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by KevinBaconIsNotMyHero »

whiskerbiscuit wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:39 pm I think they should do it like the NHL and college hockey where you can be drafted and still play in college as property of a pro team.

Is anybody really ready to play in the NBA at 18 or 19?

It would keep the college game fresh and still allow a pro team to draft a top talent out of HS.
The NBA has the G league though. I’m sure they’d rather develop their draft picks with their own coaches and front office personnel than rely on universities.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by morneaumvp »

Good, next abolish conferences and make the playoffs 1-16
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by irishman89 »

Next, contract 8 teams.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by OliverMiller »

morneaumvp wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:47 pm Good, next abolish conferences and make the playoffs 1-16
At the very least, seed the conference's 1-16. That's such an easy/obvious change imo.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by whiskerbiscuit »

KevinBaconIsNotMyHero wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:44 pm
whiskerbiscuit wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:39 pm I think they should do it like the NHL and college hockey where you can be drafted and still play in college as property of a pro team.

Is anybody really ready to play in the NBA at 18 or 19?

It would keep the college game fresh and still allow a pro team to draft a top talent out of HS.
The NBA has the G league though. I’m sure they’d rather develop their draft picks with their own coaches and front office personnel than rely on universities.
Yeah, but it sucks. I'd rather see those guys still in college.


Just my opinion I guess.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by Bob Wiley »

I just thInk it’s stupid to restrict someone based on age.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by SO_MONEY »

morneaumvp wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 2:47 pm Good, next abolish conferences and make the playoffs 1-16
No thanks.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

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Go when you're 18 or put a sizeable commitment to a college education. Thats not gonna hurt you when maybe professional basketball and you are not cut out for one another.

We are going to see tons Kwame Brown type characters out of this though. Thepir are a lot less players that can jump into the NBA at 18, then players who need their skills sharpened
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

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Decriminating against age is silly for any adult.You can go sign up for the Marines at 18 and and be in professional control of when a lethal takedown is necessary, but professionally dribbling a basketball? Oh you're too young for that my boy.

And lets face it the G league is still pretty trash. It's gotten better, but it's still not a good league. There's got to be some enormous overhauls before that can be a true minor league system.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by SO_MONEY »

YBBR wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:38 pm Go when you're 18 or put a sizeable commitment to a college education. Thats not gonna hurt you when maybe professional basketball and you are not cut out for one another.

We are going to see tons Kwame Brown type characters out of this though. Thepir are a lot less players that can jump into the NBA at 18, then players who need their skills sharpened
The rate of success for HS players making the jump is higher than college players. The idea there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent is not one that fits within historical context, in fact it is the other way around.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

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SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:02 pm
YBBR wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:38 pm Go when you're 18 or put a sizeable commitment to a college education. Thats not gonna hurt you when maybe professional basketball and you are not cut out for one another.

We are going to see tons Kwame Brown type characters out of this though. Thepir are a lot less players that can jump into the NBA at 18, then players who need their skills sharpened
The rate of success for HS players making the jump is higher than college players. The idea there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent is not one that fits within historical context, in fact it is the other way around.
With how obsessed with potential GM's gave become over time, I'm not sure that's too likely to be the case anymore.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by Oriole81 »

YBBR wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:38 pm Go when you're 18 or put a sizeable commitment to a college education. Thats not gonna hurt you when maybe professional basketball and you are not cut out for one another.

We are going to see tons Kwame Brown type characters out of this though. Thepir are a lot less players that can jump into the NBA at 18, then players who need their skills sharpened
The problem though is that Kwame Brown still made $60 million, so players can look at that and not even care if they bust hard.

It would be one thing if the players busted and it seriously affected their career trajection, but when we players can see that they can still be set for life while being a colossal disaster for their drafting team, then the market has a problem.
2020 All Time NBA Draft

A Iverson, K Irving
J Havlicek, M Ginobili, M Richmond
D Wilkins, B Bowen
T Duncan, B McAdoo
H Olajuwon, W Unseld, A Sabonis
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by SO_MONEY »

DP
Last edited by SO_MONEY on Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by SO_MONEY »

SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:51 pm
Oriole81 wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:37 pm
YBBR wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:38 pm Go when you're 18 or put a sizeable commitment to a college education. Thats not gonna hurt you when maybe professional basketball and you are not cut out for one another.

We are going to see tons Kwame Brown type characters out of this though. Thepir are a lot less players that can jump into the NBA at 18, then players who need their skills sharpened
The problem though is that Kwame Brown still made $60 million, so players can look at that and not even care if they bust hard.

It would be one thing if the players busted and it seriously affected their career trajection, but when we players can see that they can still be set for life while being a colossal disaster for their drafting team, then the market has a problem.
So what, all players then would not care if they bust...right? It is a stupid argument as to HS players being draft eligible.

The fact is relative to college players, HS players have historically had a better chance to be successful.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

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SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:53 pm
SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:51 pm
Oriole81 wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:37 pm

The problem though is that Kwame Brown still made $60 million, so players can look at that and not even care if they bust hard.

It would be one thing if the players busted and it seriously affected their career trajection, but when we players can see that they can still be set for life while being a colossal disaster for their drafting team, then the market has a problem.
So what, all players then would not care if they bust...right? It is a stupid argument as to HS players being draft eligible.

The fact is relative to college players, HS players have historically had a better chance to be successful.
ehhh... I don't think it's that simple.


HS players drafted usually have some fantastic qualities: size, athleticism, etc. Very seldom is there a solid role-player prospect with good fundamentals and limited upside drafted right out of HS, so that skews the stats right off. Most HS players were total boom (KG, Kobe, LeBron) or bust (Kwame Brown, Eddie Curry, Ndudi Ebi).

I think the way to look at it is to break down the bust rate of the top-5, top-10, lottery, and first round during years that HS players are eligible for the draft vs when they are not. Then you have to define what constitutes a "bust" (likely depending on draft slot, a bust at #1 overall could be a nice pick for #27 overall) and control for improving evaluation techniques and advanced metrics, etc.


My sense is that with HS players in the draft, it was harder for NBA teams to make good picks at the top of the draft. I think the year of evaluation against better talent in more sophisticated systems is helpful. But I haven't crunched those numbers to be sure.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by SO_MONEY »

Beef Supreme wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:28 pm
SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:53 pm
SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:51 pm

So what, all players then would not care if they bust...right? It is a stupid argument as to HS players being draft eligible.

The fact is relative to college players, HS players have historically had a better chance to be successful.
ehhh... I don't think it's that simple.


HS players drafted usually have some fantastic qualities: size, athleticism, etc. Very seldom is there a solid role-player prospect with good fundamentals and limited upside drafted right out of HS, so that skews the stats right off. Most HS players were total boom (KG, Kobe, LeBron) or bust (Kwame Brown, Eddie Curry, Ndudi Ebi).

I think the way to look at it is to break down the bust rate of the top-5, top-10, lottery, and first round during years that HS players are eligible for the draft vs when they are not. Then you have to define what constitutes a "bust" (likely depending on draft slot, a bust at #1 overall could be a nice pick for #27 overall) and control for improving evaluation techniques and advanced metrics, etc.


My sense is that with HS players in the draft, it was harder for NBA teams to make good picks at the top of the draft. I think the year of evaluation against better talent in more sophisticated systems is helpful. But I haven't crunched those numbers to be sure.
You are getting close to the point I am subtly making, Very few HS players will make themselves eligible each year, some years more than others, but most players would elect for at least a year of college. However, the players who do declare are players who are going to be generally viewed as top end talent. Additionally, just because a HS player declares doesn't mean a team will draft them and that has kept players who shouldn't make the jump in check. So, yes, the data is going to be skewed, but it in large part favors letting players get drafted out of HS. So, that should not worry many.

Just look at Rashad Lewis, C.J. Miles, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Andray Blatche and Amir Johnson...all made the jump and were second round picks and still they have a lower bust percentage (considering only 3 other HS players were taken in the second), 6 out of 9 second round picks were at least decent players who had careers in the NBA.

The cream rises to the top thus far.

As far as busts go, college players bust and at a higher rate. Dosen't matter where the pick HS players have outperformed their draft position in most cases. The picks are there to look up and pick values have been studied. I think people are too hung up on Brown being a HUGE bust to look at the fact HS kids entering the draft has been largely a good thing for the NBA. Will that continue?...beats me.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by bubu dubu. »

SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:02 pm
YBBR wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:38 pm Go when you're 18 or put a sizeable commitment to a college education. Thats not gonna hurt you when maybe professional basketball and you are not cut out for one another.

We are going to see tons Kwame Brown type characters out of this though. Thepir are a lot less players that can jump into the NBA at 18, then players who need their skills sharpened
The rate of success for HS players making the jump is higher than college players. The idea there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent is not one that fits within historical context, in fact it is the other way around.
Well yeah. When highschool players could declare eligible, they were much shorter in numbers compared to college players, so the rate of highschool busts is going to be a lot less. Also, where is this idea that "there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent," coming from? I havent seen that argument. Of course there's going to be a lot more college busts (individually and percentage wise) , because the number of college players entering the draft is exponentially higher than highschool players. Your'e always going to get 3rd/4th year college players like Robbie Hummel of the world every year who are just going to give the draft a chance to see what happens. Difference with those guys, is that they got a college education for free, and in case they bust, they have that to fall back on.

I'm not opposed to the special kids like Zion declaring eligible after highschool...but, how do you regulate that?

I would be very happy if the NBA took the kind of approach the NHL has toward their draft. NHL teams can draft kids, and maintain their rights, even if the kid chooses to go to college. Now the instant money might not be there, but there is a thing called insurance that kids can take. Under these circumstances, say a kid like Zion declares for the draft, gets drafted top 5, but then decides to go to college for however long, and has some career threatening injury...if he opted for insurance, he would get paid on the scale of a top 5 pick, whether or not he ever plays an NBA game.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by SO_MONEY »

bubu dubu. wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:58 pm
SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:02 pm
YBBR wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 4:38 pm Go when you're 18 or put a sizeable commitment to a college education. Thats not gonna hurt you when maybe professional basketball and you are not cut out for one another.

We are going to see tons Kwame Brown type characters out of this though. Thepir are a lot less players that can jump into the NBA at 18, then players who need their skills sharpened
The rate of success for HS players making the jump is higher than college players. The idea there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent is not one that fits within historical context, in fact it is the other way around.
Well yeah. When highschool players could declare eligible, they were much shorter in numbers compared to college players, so the rate of highschool busts is going to be a lot less. Also, where is this idea that "there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent," coming from? I havent seen that argument. Of course there's going to be a lot more college busts (individually and percentage wise) , because the number of college players entering the draft is exponentially higher than highschool players. Your'e always going to get 3rd/4th year college players like Robbie Hummel of the world every year who are just going to give the draft a chance to see what happens. Difference with those guys, is that they got a college education for free, and in case they bust, they have that to fall back on.

I'm not opposed to the special kids like Zion declaring eligible after highschool...but, how do you regulate that?

I would be very happy if the NBA took the kind of approach the NHL has toward their draft. NHL teams can draft kids, and maintain their rights, even if the kid chooses to go to college. Now the instant money might not be there, but there is a thing called insurance that kids can take. Under these circumstances, say a kid like Zion declares for the draft, gets drafted top 5, but then decides to go to college for however long, and has some career threatening injury...if he opted for insurance, he would get paid on the scale of a top 5 pick, whether or not he ever plays an NBA game.
The number of entrants does not affect the percentage for the rate of success. The historic trend is HS players succeed at a far greater rate, period. There is nothing more to say about it and it has nothing to do with the quantity, it has to do with the quality.
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by bubu dubu. »

SO_MONEY wrote: Sat Feb 23, 2019 1:07 am
bubu dubu. wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 11:58 pm
SO_MONEY wrote: Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:02 pm

The rate of success for HS players making the jump is higher than college players. The idea there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent is not one that fits within historical context, in fact it is the other way around.
Well yeah. When highschool players could declare eligible, they were much shorter in numbers compared to college players, so the rate of highschool busts is going to be a lot less. Also, where is this idea that "there are going to be a ton of HS busts relative to college talent," coming from? I havent seen that argument. Of course there's going to be a lot more college busts (individually and percentage wise) , because the number of college players entering the draft is exponentially higher than highschool players. Your'e always going to get 3rd/4th year college players like Robbie Hummel of the world every year who are just going to give the draft a chance to see what happens. Difference with those guys, is that they got a college education for free, and in case they bust, they have that to fall back on.

I'm not opposed to the special kids like Zion declaring eligible after highschool...but, how do you regulate that?

I would be very happy if the NBA took the kind of approach the NHL has toward their draft. NHL teams can draft kids, and maintain their rights, even if the kid chooses to go to college. Now the instant money might not be there, but there is a thing called insurance that kids can take. Under these circumstances, say a kid like Zion declares for the draft, gets drafted top 5, but then decides to go to college for however long, and has some career threatening injury...if he opted for insurance, he would get paid on the scale of a top 5 pick, whether or not he ever plays an NBA game.
The number of entrants does not affect the percentage for the rate of success. The historic trend is HS players succeed at a far greater rate, period. There is nothing more to say about it and it has nothing to do with the quantity, it has to do with the quality.
The percentage is effected for numerous reasons. #1 being what I pointed out, in college players who have no future in the NBA declaring eligible, just because they can, and they want to earn at least a few years of NBA money.

If more highschool players declared eligible than college players, do you really think the percentage would not be effected?
RubeTube
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Re: NBA proposes making draft age 18!

Post by RubeTube »

People say "They can play in the G league" We all know that most HS kids who come out are high picks.

They are jot going to send them to the G league. You will watch their crappy play for 5 year's on a NBA court until they HOPEFULLY become something.

There are always the very few who are ready right away.

Like I said, I won't complain too much as it's a dicey situation no matter how you slice it.
“We are nonviolent with people who are nonviolent with us.”
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