A Little Perspective on the 2018 Minnesota Twins

[beetlebum71]

Let me preface what's going to sound like a homer post by saying that 78 wins is not good enough and is not an acceptable outcome. This team has been rebuilding since 2011, and had been in playoff contention in 2 of the previous 3 seasons. Those seasons sandwiched a 100 loss season that gave them a #1 overall pick. The goal can't be to hang around .500. The goal needs to be to compete. Spending needs to increase, player development needs to improve, and management needs to do a better job with roster maintenance.

That said, I want to put this season into a little perspective. My point isn't to excuse the final result, but rather to show that maybe it wasn't as bad as it seemed, and that this season's struggles aren't an indicator of future struggles.

This was a super weird season. The lineup was almost identical to what it was at the end of last year, and the only changes would have to have been considered upgrades. Escobar played well at 3B down the stretch last year, but Sano was back and ready to take his spot back, freeing Esco up to be the super-utility guy that he is destined to be. The only other difference was at DH, where the Vargas/Grossman platter of yuck was being replaced by Morrison. It was primed to be a slight upgrade over the lineup that finished the season so strong last year and carried this team to the playoffs.

The bench looked pretty good. You had Esco expected to retake his roll as a roving infielder, which would allow days off for the regulars, and allow Sano to DH on days where Morrison was going to play 1B for Joe. Garver was slated to be the full-time backup catcher, which was expected to represent a pretty good offensive upgrade over what Gimenez provided in 2017, even if his defense was still something of a question mark. Grossman would be the primary backup OF, which isn't great from a defensive perspective, but with the 3 regulars, there'd be no real need for a D-replacement, anyway, as OF defense among the starters was expected to be an area of strength for the team. The 4th spot was up for grabs between Adrianza and LaMarre, among others, but would largely be an irrelevant spot with the bulk of the AB's expected to go to the top 12 position players.

The rotation had lots of reason for optimism, too. Berrios was going to be here for a full season for the first time. Gibson pitched awesome late last season and the hope was he'd look more or less like that the entire year this time. Ervin Santana was hurt, but was expected to be back in 6-8 weeks once the season started. Phil Hughes was going to be terrible and everyone knew it, but he was only expected to be a placeholder for the 5th spot until one of the kids or Santana were ready to roll. They signed Lance Lynn late in the game, and he was expected to at least be able to provide some stability to the middle of the rotation. Add in Odorizzi, who had a career ERA under 4.00 coming in and had benefited from the Pitcher Whisperer organization that is Tampa Bay, and the rotation could arguably have gone from being a liability to a strength in one off season.

The bullpen wasn't what you would call bulletproof, but it was solid. A veteran closer in Rodney, and experienced and talented setup man with closing experience in Reed, a pair of solid lefty middle relievers in Rogers and Duke, and a pair of solid righty middle relievers in Pressly and Hildenberger. There was the appearance of depth, too, with guys like Buzenitz and Duffey having ML experience in AAA, and a host of young hard throwers in the minors who would possibly be ready at some point in Curtiss, Reed, Bard, and Jay. May was waiting in the wings to grab a spot after his Tommy John rehab was completed, as well.

The team was coming off of an 85 win campaign, saw huge improvement over 2016, and more improvement could easily be expected.

Then, the season started. Fuck.

Polanco got pinched for PED's in spring and missed the first half of the season. That hurt the depth of the team by forcing Escobar to play full-time SS (although he was terrific), and forced Adrianza to play the role Esco was expected to fill.

Morrison was awful. Like, way more awful than could possibly have been expected. It was reasonable for fans to be skeptical that he would be able to reproduce his awesome 2017, which saw him blast 38 homers with a .868 OPS. His 2018 OPS ended up almost 100 points below his career average if you removed his great 2017. Disgusting. He was also quite the hack at 1st base, which made giving Mauer rest harder than it should have been.

Sano got re-injured almost right away. He had 80 at bats before missing almost the entire month of May. Then, he came back for about 3 weeks before missing the next 6. Then, he played the whole month of August before coming out again for the rest of the season, save for one game about 2 weeks ago. He never looked healthy this year, and his offseason accusations and struggles certainly could have contributed to his struggles. He missed 91 games, and never looked really healthy when he was actually in there. His injuries forced Esco over to 3rd, which made Adrianza (who was supposed to be a borderline 25th man) become the regular starter at SS. They tried other guys like Petit and Taylor Motter, but they sucked even more. Adrianza ended up getting 366 plate appearances this year, which is a disaster.

Dozier apparently hurt his knee in April and either never told anyone or thought it would be better to try to play through it (or he was told to play through it). He was terrible when he was here, and then he got traded.

Buxton got off to a slow start again, then got hurt. Then they tried to bring him back before he was healthy, he struggled even more, re-injured himself, and never came back. Super bizarre handling by the front office. He was the 2nd or 3rd best player on the team in 2017, and this year he got 90 plate appearances. Just a nightmare scenario for a guy many expected to take the leap to becoming one of the best all-around players in the league.

Castro got 74 plate appearances before tearing his knee up and missing the rest of the year. This caused Bobby Wilson to be thrown into duty, which was not great. It did lead to us getting some extended Astudillo at the end of the year, which was fun and potentially beneficial moving forward, but still, it was a blow to a team that relied on his catching ability and above-average catcher offense the year before. Garver filled in well offensively, but he struggled behind the plate. Just a lost season for one of the highest paid position players on the team.

Other than that, Mauer was about what we expected. Kepler saw his improvement level off, but had his hot streaks and continued to be a great right fielder and a passable center fielder. Esco was great when he was here, but got traded. Rosario was terrific before an injury wrecked the end of his season, but looks like a definite piece of the puzzle moving forward. Polanco was solid when he came back. Garver hit about as advertised, but unfortunately caught as advertised, as well. There were some guys who showed some surprising performances in Jake Cave, Willians, and Tyler Austin. Each of them put themselves in the mix for a spot on the team next year, for sure. All in all, the bad luck and unfortunate circumstances with the position players were vast and penalizing. It all added up to a team that scored almost 80 fewer runs than it did in 2017.

As far as the pitching staff went, things went more or less as advertised. Berrios was up and down, but showed flashes of the ace this franchise needs him to be. Gibson was super steady and consistent, and was probably the best pitcher on the team for most of the season. Odorizzi was frustrating to watch with his high pitch counts and slow pace, and he wasn't as good as one would hope, but he was in the realm of what was to be expected. Lynn was sucky and then got traded. Hughes was unusable. Rodney did what he's always done. Hildenberger was good until he got worn out late in the season. Pressly was great, and then got traded. Rogers finished the season incredibly strong. Duke was good, and then got traded. Reed was good at first, but had some arm issues and couldn't keep the ball in the park. Overuse was probably an issue with him early on, too. The Twins need him to come back strong next year if they want to field a quality pen. Trevor May pitched well after coming back from his TJ surgery and looks like the odds-on favorite to start next season as the closer. All in all, despite being 7 games worse, the pitching staff actually gave up 13 fewer runs than they did in 2017, and that's even with the defense being much worse this year than it was last year.

The good news is that this year could have gone a lot worse. The team played well down the stretch, found some usable position players late in the season who could contribute next year, and should get improved performances from some of their young players. Namely, it's hard to imagine Sano and Buxton being less-impactful than they were this year next season. Kepler saw a big bump in walk rate and hit lefties markedly better than ever before. Polanco looks like his bat will play, but it also appears that his best defensive position might not be SS. If they can find someone else decent to fill that spot, the easy move is to slide Polanco to 2B, where I think he'd be excellent. I don't think Gordon is a viable option to start the year at either 2B or SS, so they need to go find another option. Escobar coming back could fit in here. Mauer appears to be done, so 1B becomes an opening. Austin showed enough power to be in the conversation there. Sano may need to move off of 3B if his injuries continue to be an issue and sap what range he does have over there. 1B would be a logical landing spot for him if they decide they're not ready to make him a full time DH. They could also go outside the organization to fill that role. If Sano moves, 3B opens up. It would be great to see them bring Esco back on a short deal, but there should be money in the coffers to go find someone else if need be. OF should be settled between Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave, and Grossman, assuming Robbie sticks around and isn't non-tendered this winter. Catcher should be settled between Castro, Garver, and Astudillo. Willians should make the team as a 3rd C/utility guy. Adrianza will probably be around, although I'd be OK if they told them to lose their number during the winter. All in all, the lineup should be better, health-willing.

The pitching staff will probably look pretty similar. I expect Gibby to be back for one more go around. Berrios will be there. Odorizzi will probably be there, but could be a candidate for non-tender if they're not interested in paying him the roughly $8 million he'll garner in arbitration for the performance he gave them this year. His strong finish, though, likely keeps him in the team's plans moving forward. The 4 and 5 spots are wide open. Michael Pineda is presumed to take one of the spots, but we'll see if he will need more time to get his arm up to speed prior to the start of the season. I'm not going to assume that he'll be ready for the Opening Day roster until we see him pitch next spring. If he's ready to go, he's a great option at the #3 or #4 spot in the rotation. We saw auditions from young pitchers like Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, De Jong, Littel, Mejia, and Slegers this year. Romero was the most intriguing to me, but he was also pretty inconsistent. Gonsalves really struggled, but has a good minor league track record that suggests he could bounce back in year 2 like Berrios did last year, even though they're very different pitchers. Littel, De Jong, Stewart, and Slegers all strike me as just "guys" who might be passable in a pinch, but aren't long term solutions to the rotation. Mejia has shown the ability to get outs at this level, but I think his stuff plays better out of the pen. He could ramp up his velocity a little, his high pitch counts won't be as big an issue, and maybe the lessened work load will help him stay healthy. A veteran free agent signing is also possible for one or both of these spots. There aren't a lot of top end pitchers on the market this year, but there are some guys who could be interesting. Dallas Kuechel, Clay Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, JA Happ, Tyson Ross, and Nathan Eovaldi are some names to watch.

Ultimately, this year was a shit show, and the team still only finished 7 games worse than they did last year. In all honesty, there's little they could have done to duplicate last year's result. They would have had to win 98 games to get the #2 WC spot, which just wasn't ever going to happen this year. 92 would have won the division, which was more doable, but would have represented a 7 game increase on last season's win total, which was already a 26 win increase on the previous season's total. Maybe that wasn't realistic. I think if everything hadn't gone wrong with the lineup like it did, that 92 wins would have been in play. That should bring some optimism for next year.

So, this winter will be interesting. There could be a lot of moving parts, especially in the rotation and the bullpen. 2019 will likely be the first time in almost 20 years that Joe Mauer won't be in the organization as a player. It's going to be a big year for Molitor, assuming he doesn't get canned this winter first, so he should be motivated to put together a good season. It's unlikely that we'll have 4 teams win 97 or more games next year in the AL, so getting a WC spot shouldn't be quite so hard. A lot of things are looking up for 2019.

[Ask Not]

The fuck, Beetle! I guess we know what you did with your weekend.

(I'm looking forward to reading it. )

[beetlebum71]

The fuck, Beetle! I guess we know what you did with your weekend.

(I'm looking forward to reading it. )

Had a cattle call in court today for a scheduled trial that shouldn't be going to trial, but here we are. I sat in the gallery of the courtroom for 4 hours. I had lots of time to think and write.

[The Replacements]

It was a tough season for a variety of reasons. The good thing is they didn't add bad FA contracts from last year's free agency. This year will be a little tougher. They need to add or sign players with a more consistent record of success. Will any of their current players sign a long term deal? Will they be able to add any reliable starting pitching. What will they do with the bullpen. How aggressive will they be with the current state of the Twins? I am really curious to see how things shake up. I think this front office has done well drafting and being patient. With that said, when do they start making bold moves?

[HeHateMe]

Haven't read the whole thing but for 2019, my first hope is they resign Escobar. So much money to play with next year.

Give Harper/Machado 10 year, 300 million dollar deals.

Sano to DH/1B with Tyler Austin. Machado/Polanco left side, Escobar to 2B.

Trade Kepler... Buxton, Harper, Rosario and Cave as the 4th OF.

Few options at catcher already there.

Pitching staff.... come back with Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineada and then Romero/Stewart/Gonsalves. Maybe sign a good veteran on a short deal. Bullpen... add a couple cheap veteran arms. LET'S GO!!!

[beetlebum71]

It was a tough season for a variety of reasons. The good thing is they didn't add bad FA contracts from last year's free agency. This year will be a little tougher. They need to add or sign players with a more consistent record of success. Will any of their current players sign a long term deal? Will they be able to add any reliable starting pitching. What will they do with the bullpen. How aggressive will they be with the current state of the Twins? I am really curious to see how things shake up. I think this front office has done well drafting and being patient. With that said, when do they start making bold moves?

I'd like to see them buy out a year of Rosario's free agency or something like that, but other than him, who among the young guys are you confident enough in to sign to extensions? Buxton and Sano would never do it, because they'll never get the value they could get if they just let it ride and play to their talent. Kepler would probably sign, but are you sure you'd want to hitch your wagon to him for the next 3/4 years? I'm not. Not with Kiriloff coming through the pipe in the next year or two, and Larnach a year or two behind him. Polanco could be an option, but I doubt either side is super motivated. He's a strike away from missing an entire season. But, he's young and talented, so there might be a chance.

One guy I would definitely inquire about is Berrios. Sign him to something like what Archer signed for back in the day. 5 years, $45 million with a graduated pay scale that has him make $3 or 4 million next year and then finish making $15 or so in the final year with incremental increases each season. I think he's definitely got ace potential, but he hasn't quite put it all together, yet. At the very worst, you're getting a good #2 or a great #3 type guy, which is worth more than that, anyway. His side might be interested, because who knows when the TJ fairy is going to come for you as a pitcher? Take the guaranteed money while you can.

[Ask Not]

I can't see any of Rosario, Kepler, Polanco or Berrios being a drag on the team. I'd seek a team friendly deal with any or all of them. If Gibby is willing to take a short 3yr? term deal, I'd work out something with him too.

Dump Grossman. If you don't think Garver can play catcher, he can be DFA'd too.

Is the new pitching coach as bad as the bullpen would suggest? If they don't get walked off a half dozen times in the first two weeks, the season could have been different.

[bubu dubu.]

I give the Falvine experiment one more year. They made some low profile moves last offseason that didn't pay off, but they still are holding on to the Pineda card, which has some potential. Curious what they will do this year, specifically the huge void at 1B (my hope would be a healthy and productive Sano).