This is not the year to "Do the Opposite" in your draft

[Ash Ketchum]

For years, I have done Charch's "Do the Opposite" approach in my drafts, electing to build around elite WRs and QBs in my (redraft league) drafts in recent years.

This year, though, that is not a smart strategy.

In my league, a somewhat standard PPR league with 4-point passing TDs, 3 of the top 4 overall scoring leaders were RBs (Gurley, Kamara, Bell). There were 10 RBs who posted 230 or more fantasy points in my league, and after those guys, the production falls off a cliff with the next 10 guys averaging only 180 fantasy points.

That's a huge drop off.

Conversely, there were 25 WRs last season that finished the year with at least 200 fantasy points in my league.

RBs who aren't in a two or three way split for playing time are a HUGE commodity right now. You need to get at least one, ideally two, who can anchor your team and be consistent point scorers for you on a weekly basis. Rushing stats are more reliable and are less dependent on variables than receiving stats, and so you want to use at least one of your early picks to secure a good RB since the RB well will dry up very quickly as you get into Rounds 2-4.

There will be startable WRs available well into the middle rounds.

Example from my recent draft:

Team with pick #4 drafted:

R1 - RB Elliot, DAL
R2 - RB Freeman, ATL
R3 - WR Hilton, IND
R4 - WR Landry, CLE
R5 - WR Cooper, OAK

Team with pick #5 drafted:

R1 - WR Brown, PIT
R2 - TE Kelce, KC
R3 - RB Drake, MIA
R4 - WR Davis, TEN
R5 - RB Cohen, CHI

Which of those teams seems more stable week to week? Clearly the first team because of the backbone of Elliot and Freeman, and three very good WRs all taken 3rd round and later.

[KevinBaconIsNotMyHero]

I don't think it's ever been smart to build around even an elite QB in the early rounds unless you're in a superflex. I get going WR early in lieu of the rB's flying off the board but getting a QB in the first 4 rounds is a mistake imho. It's basic supply and demand, coupled with the relative predictability of the QB position in fantasy, and the scoring variance as well. I totally agree with your overall premise btw.