Note to guests/lurkers of this site. To continue reading content on some of our boards you will need to create an account.

Registration is free and easy, just remember your password and check back after your account has been approved by an administrator.

Please use the "contact us" link at the bottom of the page if you have any issues.

2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Chat about your fantasy league here
Post Reply
User avatar
Ash Ketchum
Posts: 7922
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:11 pm

2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by Ash Ketchum »

I don't know if anyone reads this forum, but fantasy football is one of my nerdy passions.

I am going to start doing some write-ups that will hopefully spark conversation (if anyone ever comes in here) leading up to the 2018 NFL and fantasy football season. Hopefully, conversation can lead to more activity in this forum as a whole. Would be cool to have more active conversations about fantasy football, especially since so many of us play. Could give each other advice, bounce ideas off each other, give opinions on trades that you might have brewing in your leagues, etc. Could be a cool deal.

Anyway, I'll keep this text brief. I am going to list and talk about a handful of players below. I will break them down into the following categories:

- SLEEPERS (defined as a player who will significantly outperform his average draft position)
- DEEP SLEEPERS (a sleeper, but probably someone who goes undrafted in your league and someone that some of your leaguemates might never have even heard of)
- BREAKOUT (someone who I predict to burst onto the scene this season, either a middling player finally becoming a star, or an established star putting together a truly career year)
- BUST (self explanatory, a player who will significantly underperform given his average draft position)

Feel free to agree or disagree with mine and add your own suggestions as well!

Without further ado:

SLEEPERS:

QB Phillip Rivers, LAC

Unless you are doing a dynasty startup draft, Rivers is still one of the best fantasy options at QB. For the past FIVE SEASONS in a row, Rivers has been drafted (on average) in fantasy leagues well outside of the Top 10 for QBs, and for the past FIVE SEASONS in a row, Rivers has scored in the Top 10 (in most scoring formats), throwing for AT LEAST 4,200 yards and 29 TDs each season.

Currently, Old Man Rivers has an ADP of around the 16th QB taken in fantasy drafts behind guys like Pat Maholmes and Andrew Luck (is his arm even still attached to his body??!) and in the neighborhood of guys like Alex Smith, Dak Prescott and even Ryan Tannehill. Are you serious?

Like I said, unless you're playing in a dynasty league, there is absolutely zero excuse not to consider Rivers in your draft as soon as the "elite" guys are gone, but with his ADP, you can target Rivers late and stack your team at other positions in the meantime. Let someone else take Rodgers in the first round or Cam Newton in the third.

Rivers has got good weapons to throw to, an improving offensive line, a respected RB leading the run game, and plays in a division against KC (lost Peters), Denver (lost Talib, aging defense) and Oakland. He also has the Browns, Titans and Bengals on the schedule this season.


The QB Tandem of Tyrod Taylor and Jameis Winston

I read about this one from CBS Sports, so full disclosure, this isn't my own take. But I think it's genius.

With Winston being suspended for the first 3 games of the season, his ADP is plummeting. He's going right before the rookie QBs and after guys like Keenum, BORTLES(!) and Dalton. But he's WAY better than those QBs in terms of fantasy. Winston has a bunch of weapons and they finally added some RB help to hopefully make things easier. They throw a ton. But missing almost a quarter of the fantasy season is huge and thus, Winston is going to be available to you late in the draft.

Now, combine that Winston pick with another late round QB pick in Tyrod Taylor. Despite Baker Mayfield's presence, all indications are that Taylor is going to enter the season as the starter, and the Browns have quietly built an exciting offense on paper around him. Gordon, Landry, Njoku, Coleman with Chubb, Hyde and Duke Johnson out of the backfield, not to mention the big boost to Tylor's value: his legs. Also, Cleveland has one of the better offensive lines in the league and Todd Haley is the OC. The makings are in place for a nice offense in Cleveland in 2018.

However, the fact that the No. 1 pick, Mayfield, is waiting in the wings has definitely kept Tyrod's ADP low, even in standard redraft leagues. He can be drafted right in the same neighborhood as Winston, Bortles and Keenum.

Strategy: wait until the later rounds and use two consecutive picks on Winston and Taylor. Taylor seems like a safe bet to start AT LEAST the first three games of the season, and by that time Winston will be back. Best case scenario: Taylor succeeds and you get to choose the hotter hand between him and Winston all season. Worst case scenario: Taylor struggles and eventually loses the job to Mayfield, but at the very least, he has bridged the gap for your fantasy team until Winston is back.


RB Kerryon Johnson, DET

I just like this guy, watching him at Auburn. He runs a little upright, and he doesn't play as big as he is at times, but my god, he's going to get his chance in Detroit, and fantasy owners don't care about YPC or efficiency. Touches, carries, yards and scores are what are important, and I think Johnson has a good chance to accumulate a lot of all those things.

A lot is made about LaGarrette Blount signing for the Lions, but he's going to turn 32 YEARS OLD during this upcoming season. 32! Whenever a RB approaches his late twenties, people start talking about losing a step and losing effectiveness. Why are people not concerned about Blount at 32, especially with his style of play?

Kerryon is being drafted late, around the likes of Ty Montgomery, James White and CJ Anderson. Gross. Give me the young buck with upside in a stellar offense alongside an elite QB over those guys.

RB Corey Clement, PHI

Like I said, Blount is gone, and he leaves behind almost 175 carries for someone to pick up in the Eagles offense. Most people think this means Jay Ajayi will become the lead back, and he might, but I still think there's going to be plenty of work for Clement, who really emerged down the stretch last season and in the playoffs. If Clement was a stock, his value skyrocketed late last season.

But he's still being drafted very late. He's way down in Chris Carson, Doug Martin and Gio Bernard-territory. Draft him late as a bench filler and see if he becomes a bargain.

WR Corey Davis, TEN

People in the dynasty community love this kid and his value is still pretty high in dynasty leagues, but for redraft leagues, it seems like the hype hasn't caught up as much yet because of his injury-riddled season in 2017. He's currently being drafted as the 30th-35th WR right now, and I think he has a good chance to finish inside the Top 15.

He's extremely talented, and the Titans (and the NFL) agreed when he was drafted in the Top 5 of the draft despite not being healthy for the combine. Last season, when healthy, he was pretty solid, especially for a rookie, and finished the season strong with 2 TDs in the playoff game against New England.

WR Josh Doctson, WAS

Pryor and Djax are long gone now, and the WR1 spot is Doctson's to lose. He's got the body, the skills and talent to make it happen, and he plays for Jay Gruden, the most underrated offensive mind in the NFL. The guy got Dalton to throw for 4,500 and 32 one year, that's all you need to know. The Redskins offense will be good, and Doctson could score a lot of TDs.

He's being drafted as the 60th WR right around where Mo Sanu, Jaron Brown and most of the rookie WRs are being taken. He's a steal in that range.

TE George Kittle, SF

Kittle had 16 redzone targets last season during the time Brian Hoyer and CJ Beathard were playing QB, he caught 2 of them. Now, he has a chance to play an entire season with the Messiah, Jimmy G. In all seriousness, though, Kittle is very underrated. Good hands, and VERY underrated run-after-catch ability for someone of his size.

He will probably go undrafted in your league unless you play a funky scoring format. Take him in the last round and you very well might have a TE1 for virtually no cost.

DEEP SLEEPERS

QB AJ McCarron, BUF

First rounder Josh Allen gets all the attention, but from what I've seen of him in college and during the pre-draft hoopla, he is nowhere near ready to be an NFL QB. His mechanics are suspect, he played at Wyoming and everyone said pre-draft that he is going to be a project.

McCarron showed some signs as Dalton's backup, and if you are in a pinch for a QB, I think McCarron is a passable backup option until the front office feels pressure to throw Allen in there. Limited upside, but there's an outside chance with that defense and run game (if McCoy isn't in serious trouble), that Buffalo could be playing meaningful games late in the season, in which case McCarron is probably starting them.

RB Joe Williams, SF

Mark my words, Jerrick McKinnon will fail as a "bell-cow" RB for the Niners. I don't care what they are paying him. We've all seen him play every game of his NFL career, and McKinnon is not lead back material. He's very good as a pass catching, change of pace option on the outside and in the screen game, but he is not going to be able to handle the role of the between-the-tackles runner of the football.

Enter Williams, who was hand-picked out of Utah by Shannahan. He started slow as a rookie and never really saw the field with Hyde in the mix, but I think this is his chance to carve out a major role. He's not big either, but he definitely has better tight-space running ability than Jet.

Williams won't be on anyone's radar in your league at the draft, so he's someone you can pick up off waivers or spend the very last pick on him.

RB Jordan Wilkins, IND

Nyhiem Hines gets all the pub for his electric speed and the coaches' plans to use him in all these exotic looks and packages. But, those types of players (Cohen in Chicago, Tavon Austin in LA/now Dallas, Sproles, etc.), are more real-life assets to real-like NFL teams than they are consistent fantasy producers.

And Marlon Mack, who many believe will take that RB1 role in Indianapolis simply due to seniority, is a total unknown. He looked good in limited action last year, but he has injury and durability concerns.

Wilkins was drafted #169 overall, and has more size and power than Hines or Mack, so I think there's a chance he is the one who emerges to take on the majority of the running-down touches.

WRs Chester Rogers and Deon Cain, IND

We will stay in Indy for our next two deep sleepers, as Rogers and Cain compete for that WR2 role behind TY Hilton in Indy. It's an interesting battle because Moncrief is gone now, and if Andrew Luck is healthy, that WR2 spot in Indy could yield some nice production.

Rogers is the incumbent, he's 24 and showed flashes last year when he wasn't injured or playing behind Moncrief and Hilton on the depth chart. He got a chance to start in Week 10, and caught 6 passes for 104 and 1 TD, so the talent is there.

Cain is a rookie and was very good in OTAs, especially in jump ball situations. He was a second round pick in many draft experts' eyes, but fell to the 6th. His stock would be much higher had he not fallen that far.

Neither of these guys are currently being drafted in most standard redraft leagues. Use your final pick on one of them or monitor them on waivers as training camp progresses.

TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI

He's going to be available on waivers after your draft, but he showed flashes last season and is a converted WR, so he has the athleticism to be a dynamic playmaker from the TE spot. Bradford loves his checkdowns, and this guy could be a decent steal.


BREAKOUT CANDIDATES:

QB Marcus Mariota, TEN

I just think this is the year he puts it all together. His team loves him, he has now won some big games (won that playoff game vs. KC), and he has some decent weapons to throw to, including Delanie Walker, Davis, Rishard Matthews and now Dion Lewis out of the backfield.

His rushing ability also helps. Remember, just 350 rushing yards in a season equals out to an extra 35 fantasy points. 35 fantasy points = 875 yards passing. Mariota gets a big boost with his rushing numbers.

I think with Tennessee saying they want to be able to throw more this season, a near-4,000 yard/25 TD season with another 300 yards rushing isn't out of the question.

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG

There are certain times when the hype a player gets coming out of college is completely warranted. This is one of those times. Barkley is a beast. He's going to be one of the best all-around backs in the league from Day 1.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET

Golladay is a good sleeper candidate as well, but I firmly believe this is the breakout guy of the season. Marvin Jones is essentially just a deep threat, and Golden Tate is essentially just a YAC guy. I think Golladay can be a true, well-rounded WR1 for Detroit. For the couple of games he was healthy and available last season, he was great. Caught 2 TDs in one game. Showed incredible talent. I love this kid, and with Stafford under center, the Lions can support 2-3 stud WRs in their offense.

TE David Njoku, CLE

Immensely talented and athletic with a great work ethic from what I've seen. With either Taylor or Mayfield under center, I expect this kid to emerge and get close to that Evan Engram level of production.


BUSTS

RB Jerrick McKinnon, SF

This dude is getting drafted in the second round! What are you doing?

As Vikings fans, we know he's good, but he's not going to shoulder the majority of the load. I wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan signs Asiata to help Jet do the heavy lifting. lol jk... kind of.

WR Julio Jones, ATL

I guess for redraft leagues, Julio is probably a safe option in the first/second round for another year, but I predict a swift decline in his game, which could potentially begin this year. He always has a nagging injury, he always seems to drop a key pass here and there, and he never really scores that many TDs.

Not saying he's going to fall off the face of the planet, but with how highly his name is regarded, I think I'd go elsewhere when it's my turn to draft in the early second round.

RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR

Same thing. I think this kid is good, and in real-life, I think he's VERY good. I just don't know what kind of consistency you are going to see from him in fantasy on a week to week basis. Despite reports that he has gained 5 pounds (big whoooop, I gained 5 pounds at breakfast this morning), CMC is still a glorified Sproles type RB. He will have a few weeks where Rivera force feeds him 17 carries and he amasses 150 yards from scrimmage and a score, but CJA is going to have a role too, and there's going to weeks where the game dictates that Anderson gets the ball more than other weeks.

Again, he's still a great player, but for where he is being drafted, I think I'd want a more consistent option, ESPECIALLY if you play in only 0.5 PPR or non-PPR.
SKOLTROL
Posts: 2526
Joined: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:22 pm

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by SKOLTROL »

Agree with McKinnon being a bust. The national guys love him, especially the cbs podcast. No way is he a bell cow back. I think they have never watched his film. Pass catching yes, ball carrier no.
Spoiler:
:fight:
User avatar
Mandatory
***Official MNRC HOF Member***
Posts: 43749
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:05 am
Location: The Gothic Asshole

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by Mandatory »

I've got Corey Clement soo WOOT!

I think McCaffrey will be a huge bust and is garbage.
I am a part of all whom I have met. - Alfred the Great

#BaltimoreStrong
User avatar
Ash Ketchum
Posts: 7922
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:11 pm

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by Ash Ketchum »

SKOLTROL wrote: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:53 pm Agree with McKinnon being a bust. The national guys love him, especially the cbs podcast. No way is he a bell cow back. I think they have never watched his film. Pass catching yes, ball carrier no.
It's insane the hype for McKinnon by non-local people.

We watched it for literally the last four seasons. McKinnon is elite in the screen game and can be a very valuable real-life complementary RB, but he's just not very good between the tackles, and that's where most high-scoring fantasy RBs get most of their volume/touches.
RubeTube
***Official Gibby Award Winner - November 2018***
Posts: 44232
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:10 pm

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by RubeTube »

Ash Ketchum wrote: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:59 pm
SKOLTROL wrote: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:53 pm Agree with McKinnon being a bust. The national guys love him, especially the cbs podcast. No way is he a bell cow back. I think they have never watched his film. Pass catching yes, ball carrier no.
It's insane the hype for McKinnon by non-local people.

We watched it for literally the last four seasons. McKinnon is elite in the screen game and can be a very valuable real-life complementary RB, but he's just not very good between the tackles, and that's where most high-scoring fantasy RBs get most of their volume/touches.
He's not "elite" at anything. His strength is in the screen game but he is far from elite. I didn't even want this guy as our backup. San Fran is in for a rude awakening. He will miss at least 4 games on top of it.
“We are nonviolent with people who are nonviolent with us.”
— Malcolm X

The Puppet Master
User avatar
Night Train
***Official Gibby Award Winner - October 2018***
Posts: 31915
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:56 pm
Location: Corner of 14th and Oak

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by Night Train »

I was shocked to see McKinnon go late in the second round in some mocks a few weeks ago, but now I'm seeing he's dropped down to the third in most of them. No way is he going to be able to survive being a bell cow for the niners without getting hurt, hell, he's hurt right now and the season hasn't even started.

I"m just hoping that Kenyan Drake and Royce Freeman have good production this year, they're kind of my sleepers.
I apologize in advance if what I just said offended or upset you.

The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.

Minnesota - Mired in Mediocrity
User avatar
EnLiteEndOne
Posts: 11613
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:22 am

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by EnLiteEndOne »

Night Train wrote: Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:53 am I was shocked to see McKinnon go late in the second round in some mocks a few weeks ago, but now I'm seeing he's dropped down to the third in most of them. No way is he going to be able to survive being a bell cow for the niners without getting hurt, hell, he's hurt right now and the season hasn't even started.

I"m just hoping that Kenyan Drake and Royce Freeman have good production this year, they're kind of my sleepers.
I don't think Kyle Shannahan is going to depend on Jet to be his workhorse. He has almost always used two backs. Alfred Morris will be a decent compliment to Jet in that offense. Think of a poor mans Freeman/Coleman with Jet being Coleman. The touches will be there to justify a 3rd round pick in .5 or 1pt PPR; provided he stays healthy.
Lampin'
User avatar
Mandatory
***Official MNRC HOF Member***
Posts: 43749
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:05 am
Location: The Gothic Asshole

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by Mandatory »

McKinnon definitely dropped in the Fantasy Draft I did on Friday. I had no interest in him personally and felt he was ranked way too high. I love the guy but I think he'll struggle as an everydown back.
I am a part of all whom I have met. - Alfred the Great

#BaltimoreStrong
User avatar
CasualObserverGuy
Posts: 4406
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:38 pm

Re: 2018 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates, Sleepers, Deep Sleepers and Busts

Post by CasualObserverGuy »

Does Mack make Chicago a worthwhile Defense??
Jesus threw the money changers out of the Temple in Jerusalem. We need to throw the bankers out of Washington.
Post Reply