Offensive Guards - Draft History

[Ash Ketchum]

Every Pro Bowl OG (including injury replacements) since 2009 and where they were drafted:

- Quenton Nelson, IND - Round 1 (#6)
- Joel Bitonio, CLE - Round 2 (#35)
- David DeCastro, PIT - Round 1 (#24)
- Kelechi Osemele, OAK - Round 2 (#60)
- Richie Incognito, BUF - Round 3 (#81)
- Zack Martin, DAL - Round 1 (#16)
- Brandon Brooks, PHI - Round 3 (#76)
- Trai Turner, CAR - Round 3 (#92)
- TJ Lang, GB - Round 4 (#109)
- Larry Warford, NO - Round 3 (#65)
- Marshall Yanda, BAL - Round 3 (#86)
- Josh Sitton, GB - Round 4 (#135)
- Logan Mankins, NE - Round 1 (#32)
- Mike Pouncey, MIA - Round 1 (#15)
- Evan Mathis, PHI - Round 3 (#79)
- Kyle Long, CHI - Round 1 (#20)
- Ben Grubbs, BAL - Round 1 (#29)
- Jahri Evans, NO - Round 4 (#108)
- Wade Smith, HOU - Round 3 (#78)
- Zane Beadles, DEN - Round 2 (#45)
- Chris Snee, NYG - Round 2 (#34)
- Mike Iupati, SF - Round 1 (#15)
- Brian Waters, KC - Undrafted
- Brandon Moore, NYJ - Undrafted
- Carl Nicks, TB - Round 5 (#164)
- Davin Joseph, TB - Round 1 (#23)
- Kris Dielman, SD - Undrafted
- Steve Hutchinson, MIN - Round 1 (#17)

- 10/28 first rounders
- 4/28 second rounders
- 7/28 third rounders
- 7/28 fourth round and later

Don’t know if there’s many trends here. More first round guards than I thought. Pretty much 50/50 between guards taken in the first two rounds and guards taken in the third and later.

Here is the more complete draft history during that time so you can see all of the OGs taken:

[PurpleFloyd]

Kubiak won't need white collar OL to get production from them. Besides, the OL is a unit and with that complimentary skillets> raw talent.
You need guys who physically compliment each other. It never works to just try and take elite talent that's mismatched and try to get them to work together

[Ash Ketchum]

Kubiak won't need white collar OL to get production from them. Besides, the OL is a unit and with that complimentary skillets> raw talent.
You need guys who physically compliment each other. It never works to just try and take elite talent that's mismatched and try to get them to work together

Agree with you on the synergy and teamwork bit regarding the OL, but it does help to have really good individuals making up that unit.

[Tony Bongwater]

FUCK!!! My entire board was set up on getting 2 all pro guards in the 6th round. Now I gotta rethink trading that 3rd and 4th for an extra 1st.

It tells me that the first rounders act like first rounders, but that the fringe 1sts are there for a reason. If a guy lacks size, or focus...etc... but has everything else, they're still short or dumb. Meanwhile the raw guys in the 3rd and 4th pan out at a decent clip considering their draft position. Essentially, if your guy isnt there in round 1 you dont need to freak out in round two.

Unless you're the Vikings in which case you just keep taking lineman till we have 5 league average starters.

[Da Gas Man]

I am somewhat saddened to see Cody Ford rise in mock drafts. I thought he would be a great pick at 18 and now I fear that he won’t be there at 18. I have now seen him mocked from 13-17.

[PurpleHaze]

The way people ball their eyes out about drafting Olinemen early I was expecting a bare minimum of 70% drafted in the first two rounds.

[Hector]

I am somewhat saddened to see Cody Ford rise in mock drafts. I thought he would be a great pick at 18 and now I fear that he won’t be there at 18. I have now seen him mocked from 13-17.

I think he could be this year's Braeden Smith, projected at guard-could play RT and play it well.

Nice thread Ash, I can totally see Wyatt Teller turning into a solid guard (5th round pick in 2018) and thought the Vikings should have drafted him as he could move people around with ease.

Gossett's bio didn't really sound promising from the start- plays stiff, needs strength.

[twgerber]

- 10/28 first rounders

- 4/28 second rounders
- 7/28 third rounders
- 7/28 fourth round and later

Don’t know if there’s many trends here. More first round guards than I thought. Pretty much 50/50 between guards taken in the first two rounds and guards taken in the third and later.

So you are saying as many work out drafted in 3rd/4th as in 1st/2nd. 14 in each pair.

So round doesn't matter as long as it's in the first 4 rounds..... And 2nd rounder fail more than any other of the first 4 rounds by far.

[Ash Ketchum]

Interesting that outside of Quenton Nelson, who was billed as an All Pro right away before the combine even, there are very few examples of OGs being taken in the Top 10.

Maybe bodes well for us if Ford is seen as a OG by too many teams that he could fall to 18?

I’m usually against reaching for a guard in the first unless they truly have Pro Bowl potential reasonably soon. Ford could be a guy like that. I don’t know.

[B-Town]

- 10/28 first rounders

- 4/28 second rounders
- 7/28 third rounders
- 7/28 fourth round and later

Don’t know if there’s many trends here. More first round guards than I thought. Pretty much 50/50 between guards taken in the first two rounds and guards taken in the third and later.

So you are saying as many work out drafted in 3rd/4th as in 1st/2nd. 14 in each pair.

So round doesn't matter as long as it's in the first 4 rounds..... And 2nd rounder fail more than any other of the first 4 rounds by far.

To be fair, you should probably figure out how many guards have been taken in each of these clusters to get a real idea of what's happening here. I would imagine the percentage of 'hits' go down with each round, like they do at every other position.

[Ash Ketchum]

- 10/28 first rounders

- 4/28 second rounders
- 7/28 third rounders
- 7/28 fourth round and later

Don’t know if there’s many trends here. More first round guards than I thought. Pretty much 50/50 between guards taken in the first two rounds and guards taken in the third and later.

So you are saying as many work out drafted in 3rd/4th as in 1st/2nd. 14 in each pair.

So round doesn't matter as long as it's in the first 4 rounds..... And 2nd rounder fail more than any other of the first 4 rounds by far.

To be fair, you should probably figure out how many guards have been taken in each of these clusters to get a real idea of what's happening here. I would imagine the percentage of 'hits' go down with each round, like they do at every other position.

Agreed.

It’s hard to really judge this data without having context of what’s going on at other positions.

Also, without the luxury of PFF ratings or really studying what local media is saying, it’s hard to know if a lot of these guys have turned into successful picks. Outside of the top guys, I have no idea if OG X is a good player or not.

Using the Pro Bowl is not the most effective method either since it’s ignoring a number of very good players who just didn’t get that level of recognition.